(This is the first of what I hope to be 30 previews of 30 teams on the front page. Lofty? Sure, but hey, we shoot high around here. First up: EdRomero)
March is a wonderful month for Red Sox fans. Peter Gammons tell us that every Sox veteran is in the best shape of their lives, every Sox youngster now finally “gets it,” and every newcomer is a perfect fit for Fenway and the city of Boston. And I’ve fallen for it again. Yes, an already great Yankees team improved their roster and the Rays still look dangerous, but this year’s Red Sox is a well constructed team.
Starting Pitching
The signing of John Lackey gives the Red Sox a third top of rotation type starter to go along with Jon Jester and Josh Beckett. There has been a lot of chatter saying Beckett will soon sign a contract extension, so he’ll either be a very happy pitcher or a pitcher chasing a contract – the always motivated Beckett will do well in either situation as long as he stays healthy. Lester appears to be entering his prime and Lackey looks to be solid if he can adjust to pitching at Fenway (and also that staying healthy issue).
For the bottom half of the rotation, the Red Sox hope Daiskuke Matsuzaka’s off year was a fluke and Clay Bucholz’s promising season was not a fluke. If it’s the other way around, the Sox could be fluked. If either pitcher does falter, 2009 All Star, Tim Wakefield is still around. As he will for probably the next ten seasons, Wakefield will have a stretch of some tremendous games and then end the season terribly. After Wakefield, Boof Bonser, Michael Bowden, and Junicha Tazawa can step in to eat some innings and help protect the bullpen with some long relief.
Bullpen
The bullpen was a strength for the 2009 Red Sox in the beginning of the season. However, when 3/5 of the starting rotation can only pitch into the 5th inning, a good bullpen can quickly become bad. Jonathon Papelbon has turned from one of the biggest strengths of the teams to one of the biggest question marks. Last year, many of his save chances became adventures as he refused to throw the split fingered fastball and started walking batters. The choice Papelbon seems stuck with is should he do what’s best for getting batters out or what’s best for his arm (and his next contract). He says he’ll be using the split more often this year; if he doesn’t, expect some “leaked” stories about Papelbon saying or doing something stupid followed by a trade.
As for the rest, Daniel Bard is being touted as the next closer, but it’s still too early to tell. The rest are a bunch of solid veterans who should be fine unless they’re overworked.
Lineup
Gone is the power of Jason Bay and most likely Mike Lowell, but also gone are the automatic inning-enders at the catcher and shortstop positions. As long as Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew, and Victor Martinez remain healthy, the Sox will have a good lineup, but that may not be enough even with improved pitching and defense. They’ll need something more.
•Can Jacoby Ellsbury improve his OBP and maybe hit with more power? He’s hit some Damonesque homeruns in spring training and showed more patience at the end of last year. But much like his pink hat fans flirting for free drinks, this could be just a tease
•Can Ortiz have a better season? I’m not expecting a repeat of last year’s disastrous start, but I’m also expecting him to get beat by good pitching while building his stats against poor pitching.
•What will Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron, and Adrian Beltre do? Scutaro’s coming off a career year and those usually aren’t repeated, but a disappointing Scutaro with his plate discipline will be better than last year’s assortment of shortstops . Cameron and Beltre may bring some homeruns to Fenway, but will those makeup for the strikeouts and will Beltre stay healthy? Even if they do disappoint, at least they can field.
Fielding
Last year, I probably didn’t even list this as a category, but Theo Epstein and Gammons have now taught me how important it is. The 2009 Red Sox – with a calcified catcher who can’t throw baserunners out, shortstops making untimely errors, a left fielder with no range, and a third baseman unable to move – must have taught Theo that defense matters. Or the Red Sox decided that with the available free agents, improving defense made more sense than improving the offense.
Whatever the reasons, the Red Sox now have their best fielding outfield in my 35-year lifetime (with maybe the exception of the 2008 Drew, Ellsbury, Coco Crisp outfield that occasionally played). They also have a strong infield with gold glove caliber players at first, second, and third and a consistent shortstop. Rounding out the defense, is the average fielding Victor Martinez, who will be playing catcher much more than he has in the recent past.
Bench
Jason Varitek as a starter was liability on the field and the plate. As a backup this year, he’s like the rest of the subpar backups in baseball and having more days off will possibly help him be better in his reduced role. Mike Lowell will probably be traded away (again), but the Sox may want to hold onto him if they sense Ortiz’s decline is rapidly continuing . Even though he can’t field anywhere close to how he used to, Mike Lowell can still hit (and take 40 seconds to get to first base after hitting a line drive). If Terry Francona can massage the egos, an Ortiz/Lowell platoon should be better than anything the Red Sox can get in a Mike Lowell trade.
As for the non-elderly members of the bench, Jeremy Hermida has some potential to have a surprise season if one of the starters falters. In 2006, Bill Hall has 35 homeruns; in 2008 Jed Lowrie was a promising prospect. Also in 2006 and 2008, all of the Golden Girls were alive and Toyota’s were considered safe cars.
Don’t expect much help from the minors, as most of the Sox top prospects still looks to be a few years away from hitting the majors. Last year’s favorite prospect, first baseman Lars Anderson is coming off a poor season. Great things are being projected for this year’s favorite prospect, the slick fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias. However, since he was born in the nineties, the Sox may need to wait a few years.
Miscellaneous
Money and a good farm system has allowed the Red Sox to make helpful midseason trades over the last few seasons. This year, with the short term deals of Scutaro, Cameron, and Beltre along with the position flexibility of Youkilis, Martinez, and Scutaro, Theo Epstein will have a variety of options to try to improve the team. Let the Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Joe Mauer trade rumors begin!
Prediction: World Series Champions
Granted, this has been my Red Sox prediction for the last 30 years, and, for the Sox to beat the Yankees, something probably needs to go wrong in New York and two or three starters on the Red Sox will need to get very hot just in time for the playoffs. All of this will happen: pitching, fielding, and lineup depth will lead the Red Sox to 100 wins and a World Series; Ellsbury and Bucholz finally “get it”; Ortiz has never felt better; Boston is the perfect place for Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro; and Peter Gammons will have more good news about the Red Sox tomorrow. All of this will happen because it’s the wonderful month of March.
Fun fact: Lester, Lackey, and Beckett all won deciding World Series Games before turning 25.
Things that catch the eye as we wait to find out who dances come Thursday in the NCAA: