Sportsfrog.com

It should be relatively clear from the posts I have let fly this year on the Grizzlies that I am firmly in the “season is lost so go ahead and tank and get the best odds at Kevin Durant/Greg Oden” camp. John Hollinger at espn.com, whose basketball writing is among the best in the business tackles this question here. Now, Hollinger is Insider password protected, and I usually don’t link to general off-limits stuff, but this is a pretty damn solid piece, and perhaps you know a friend at work or the swamp who will get you to the goodness. At any rate, a quick quote from the piece:

“That said, if you were going to pursue such a strategy, there’s definitely a “sweet spot” between 53 and 62 losses where it makes the most sense. As the chart shows, tanking for the lottery probably isn’t worth the bother if the team is headed for only 45 or 50 losses. But if it’s going to lose between 55 and 60 games anyway, then it starts making a lot more sense. The team can give itself odds as much as 7 percentage points better to land the big prize in this range, with a nearly equivalent jump in the odds of coming in second.

Let’s bring this back to reality by looking at the three teams bad enough that this strategy might be worth their while: Memphis, Philadelphia and Boston. Each is at a pace to lose more than 55 games already — 57 for Philly, 59 for Boston and 61 for Memphis. Looking at the chart, each can reap improved odds via the “tanking” strategy because they’re in the sweet spot. On the other hand, a team like Portland probably doesn’t stand to gain much. The Blazers are on pace for 48 losses, but dropping to 53 improves their odds only about half as much as it does for the former three clubs.”

Well, as a Grizzlies fan, gibbyup then. Onward and downward fellas.

Hollinger finishes by noting that losing guarantees you of nothing, of course, given the way the lottery is run. But, dammit, this is one of the rare years where the prize for being in the top two of the lottery is potentially franchise altering. So, if your favorite team is trending toward the shit-pile anyway, there is no good reason to stem the bleeding, thereby lengthening the odds at Durant or Oden. At this point, the Celtics and Grizzlies are playing like they agree with that analysis anyway.