Sportsfrog.com

It was all going so perfectly. The Blazers won the draft lottery and the right to choose between Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. They took Oden. They found a patsy willing to take Zach Randolph off their hands in Isiah Thomas and he was even willing enough to include a young player with a future in return. They made a trade where they acquired another first-round pick. Steve Francis, who came over in the Randolph swap, was willing to accept a buyout. Everyone was excited for the new season, with players working out together in the summer, getting to know each other and working to get better. Then it all came crashing down when a fairly simple arthroscopic surgery on Oden became microfracture surgery, shredding most of the good will for the team’s upcoming season like so many tiny incisions to stimulate cartilage growth. The Blazers have lots of pieces left and will try to make the best of them.

Brandon Roy won Rookie of the Year last year in spite of missing one-third of the season, showing that, yes, a polished college player may be a better investment than a younger guy overflowing with upside. Roy improved his performance every month until he missed a few games late in the season. Roy’s last three months were simply sparkling, tallying 18.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game while hitting over 47 percent of his shots, including 42.7 percent from downtown. The only question with him is that the heel injury that bothered him last year is flaring up as the season approaches.

Jarrett Jack will join him in the backcourt. The fireplug from Georgia Tech started 79 contests last year, dishing out 5.3 assists per game but turning the ball over too much (2.23 assist-to-turnover ratio).

With Ime Udoka leaving town (San Antonio), the small forward spot is open for whoever wants it. Martell Webster is likely to beat out Travis Outlaw for the starter’s role based on his outside shooting. Webster hit 91 threes to lead the team last year, underscoring the Blazers’ need for more skilled bombers. Unfortunately, Webster has not shown much else.

With Oden shelved, LaMarcus Aldridge will be the primary offensive threat down low. Aldridge had an up-and-down rookie season, missing 19 games, but starting 22 others. He hit his stride late in the season, peaking with a 13-game stretch in March where he averaged 16.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game punctuated by a 30-point explosion against Charlotte and a 24-point, 17-rebound, four-block night in Denver. Unfortunately, Aldridge has been temporarily shelved by a toe injury suffered when a teammate stepped on his foot during practice.

Joel Przybilla is the defensive anchor for 25 minutes per night if he can stay healthy, which is a much higher priority than in years past. Przybilla started all 43 games he appeared in, defending the rim and doing little else statistically. Przybilla, however, does provide a security blanket behind the perimeter defenders with his shotblocking ability (career average of 3.65 blocks per 40 minutes).

Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez combine to take care of the backup point guard role. Blake is the steady hand who carded a 3.16 assist-to-turnover ratio last year with the Bucks and Nuggets, good for seventh in the NBA. Blake also started 57 games with the Blazers two years ago, hitting 41.3 percent of his threes.

Rodriguez is the flashy, uptempo point guard who can push the tempo. Answering to the nickname “Spanish Chocolate,” Rodriguez averaged 10.1 assists per 40 minutes in limited action last year and had a 23-point, 10-assist game against the Nuggets.

Travis Outlaw will pick up some minutes at the two or Webster can slide to that role for a few minutes. The athletic 23-year-old led the team in blocked shots last season with 74 despite being seventh on the team in minutes played.

Darius Miles has dropped over 30 pounds since getting microfracture surgery and is an unknown quantity this season, especially since athleticism is all he has ever had in the NBA. James Jones was acquired from the Suns in the offseason and is the designated three-point shooter, having hit on 38.5 percent of his treys in his career.

Channing Frye, the aforementioned “young player with talent” who came over from the Knicks, will get to back up both Aldridge and Przybilla. Frye, who was dubbed “untouchable” at one point by Isiah Thomas, started 59 contests for the Knicks last season after posting 12.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game in his rookie season. Frye is a bit too much of a finesse player to handle a substantial number of minutes at center, so it is likely there will be a fair number of Raef LaFrentz sightings. LaFrentz was a missing man last season, playing only 352 minutes. Maybe getting all that time off was good for his knees.

Following “The Surgery,” things look bleak for the Blazers with a certain trip to the lottery on their 2008 itinerary. After all, they have a lot of young talent, but the pertinent word is young. LaFrentz is the only player on the roster under 30 and most of the minutes will go to players 25 and under. Even if Oden were in perfect health, he wouldn’t have changed the overall outlook in that they would still be still lottery-bound. I think he’s likely to have a return to health based on his youth and lack of severity of his injury. Many have expressed concern about the procedure because taller players have not done as well coming back from the surgery, but there are two words for those naysayers – Amare Stoudemire.

Stoudemire is 6′10″ and was simply masterful in his return last season (Bill Walton just made three cents off my usage of the word “masterful”). Provided Oden can return to health next season and be completely fine by the midway point of the 2008-2009 season, and I believe he will be, the injury may prove to be a good thing. After all, the Blazers should get another very high lottery pick, Roy and Aldridge get another year to develop without serious pressure to win on their shoulders, and adding a true point guard or multi-skilled small forward to this group could propel the Blazers toward developing a dynasty in three seasons.