USF Football at Rutgers tonight
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With a national audience watching, and while the #2 branding still shines fresh and clean, the South Florida Bulls will travel into the state college of New Jersey to visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in what could be their toughest road, regular season test of this season.
Why the toughest? Well, circumstances are stacking up against them. Like how just this past Saturday the Bulls dispatched their in-state rival Golden Knights of UCF in a game that saw the Bulls score more points in the fourth quarter than in any of the other three.
While I'm sure they wanted to get their backups some experience - especially quarterback Grant Gregory - the Bulls also wanted and needed to make a statement. First to UCF, who USF coach Jim Leavitt no longer wants to play on a yearly basis, and second to the BCS computers, who came out with their initial rankings this week.
The 64-12 UCF win was an emotional one for the Bulls. A week prior, USF traveled down to Boca Raton to play another in-state game against FAU. The Owls are a decent team, led by Howard Schnellenberger, and gave USF a tough fight. There's no discounting how much emotion goes into an in-state game like this and the Bulls were probably caught looking ahead a bit to the UCF game. Still, they pulled out the win and came home to Tampa listening to all the talk about how they didn't deserve their (then #5) ranking because of the way FAU hung around against USF.
So now that the UCF statement game has been laid down, South Florida has an even greater obstacle. Now #2, with 11 first place votes in the AP poll, the underdog is suddenly lining up on the other side of the field.
Right now, USF is a national title contender. But are they a national title contender?
It scares me that USF is coming off a big home win against a big state rival - a circumstance that always leaves a team vulnerable to a flat performance the following week.
On top of that, they are going into a hostile environment, with rain expected, on national tv, on short rest, against a team who defeated them in Tampa last year and against a team that is probably pissed off on how their season has gone so far.
Rutgers began the 2007 season ranked number 16 but have lost to Maryland and Cincinnati - both at home. They are not realistically in the hunt for the Big East title any more. A loss tonight means they aren't really in the hunt for anything except a Bowl game. So this, essentially, is their season. And they'll be up for it. And the Bulls might not. And it's all looking like the perfect recipe for an upset.
As the two matchup, the Bulls will focus on stuffing Rutgers running back Ray Rice. Listed at 5-9, 195lbs, Rice ran for over 200 yards in the Knights win at South Florida last season. The Bulls led at halftime in that game but committed a number of mistakes in the second half that led to their defeat.
But the real threat they face is from Rutgers QB Mike Teel, who has been impressive at times this season. The best way to beat this Bulls defense is through a well paced, quick passing attack. The Bulls haven't given up 100 yards on the ground since Rice's effort last year and they'll be set up to stop the run tonight.
Iowa state transfer Tyrone McKenzie wasn't in last year's contest and is a hard hitting outside linebacker who plays the run well. He'll help make the difference against Rice this year, but McKenzie has struggled in pass coverage and Rutgers will get opportunities to throw to their backs and tightends.
USF also likes to play their corners off the line in single coverage and Rutgers may have enough discipline in their passing game to take advantage of short routes and work the field to put points up on USF.
So it will likely be on the Bulls offense to pull a road win out. At home, they look to the sidelines a lot to audible in and out of plays by hand signals. I question how well they'll be able to do this in an environment such as what they'll face tonight in New Jersey. Rutgers' defense isn't as strong as it was last season, they are small in their front seven and can be run on. Their secondary is also a young unit, so this game may turn into a high scoring contest.
So as we stop this week to take stock of this whole USF thing, realize it isn't so much a bandwagon as it is still an open invitation to join. There's still time to get in early.
A win tonight, and they are for real. A loss tonight, and they are for real. And so maybe as The Onion noted today, USF is just hoping they lose tonight so they can continue about their business.
