Sports Frog

In an admission that would surely disappoint my literary and analytical mentor, Joe Morgan, I have neither the consistency nor the presumed intangibles it would take to keep up a consistent post-per-day rate. Still, I was feeling particularly motivated today (at work) so let's enjoy this while it lasts and take a run through the AL Central ...

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (72-90, 67-95, 4th place AL Central)
My Choice: Nick Swisher, CF, 27 (.262/.119/.193, 22 HRs in 659 MLB PAs)
2008 is going to be a really interesting year for Swisher as he's moving from a home park that greatly favors pitchers to a home park that greatly favors hitters. While his OBP was higher in Oakland last year, his isoP was 24 points lower in large part because 14 of his 22 HRs were hit on the road. Mostly based on the trade, PECOTA is expecting Swisher to increase his HRs by almost 50% (up to 35) and register an isoP of .236 (which would have ranked inside the top 25 in 2007). However, I'm not sold that he'll see quite the massive power gains due to his projected usage in Chicago. In 2007, Swisher split his playing time somewhat evenly among CF, RF and 1B (39%, 33%, 28%). In 2008, he's expected to play most of the season in CF which, theoretically, would take a bigger toll on his body. While I'd temper my enthusiasm a bit below what PECOTA projects, Swisher has proven himself a durable player in the past and should be good for a moderate stat jump across the board. Besides, he was a really simple choice here.
Also Considered: White Sox 40 Man Roster
Seriously, you tell me. John Danks? Carlos Quentin? Both could develop into nice players but absolutely everything and then some would have to go right for them to be franchise players. I promise it won't.
In 2009: Aaron Poreda (SP, 21, 2007 1st round pick, 25th overall) has #1/#2 upside if he stays in the rotation but he's thrown less than 50 professional innings so I probably wouldn't consider 12 months from now anyway. Honestly, I only included Poreda here because I feel bad for White Sox fans and figured maybe tossing out another name might cheer them up a bit. If I were to read an article tomorrow exposing the White Sox as actually having co-GMs both named Kenny Williams with vastly differing philosophies who make deals without consulting each other, I'd probably feel better about the future of this team. They're just a directionless, self unaware mess. I'm sorry, Chicago south.

CLEVELAND INDIANS (96-66, 91-71, 1st place in the AL Central)
My Choice: Grady Sizemore, CF, 25 (.277/.113/.185, 24 HRs in 748 MLB PAs)
Without shame, I'll say that if I were drawing up the perfect major league centerfielder, I'm not sure it would vary much from Sizemore. I'd like him to cut down on the strikeouts and his RZR was in the lower half of AL CFs but those are minor and potentially insignificant flaws. While PECOTA is forecasting a moderate slide in OBP, there's also a bounce in isoP that would take it up over .200 and his top 5 comps include Barry Bonds and Duke Snider. There are other solid young players in Cleveland but Sizemore is already the complete package at 25 and the easy choice.
Also Considered: C.C. Sabathia, SP, 27 (21.4 K%, 3.8 BB%, 5.6 K/BB, 47.6 GB% in 241.0 MLB IPs), Fausto Carmona, SP, 24 (15.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 2.2 K/BB, 64.8 GB% in 215.0 MLB IPs)
Both Sabathia and Carmona were top 20 pitchers last season; one I think is for real, the other I'm not completely sure about. Sabathia, the (deserving) AL Cy Young award winner, was spectacular last season while leading all of baseball in innings pitched. The one concern about him is his size (6'7, 290) but I view that as non-issue (if not a possible plus); he's an absolute horse who hasn't dipped below 180 IPs in any of his seven seasons with Cleveland. Assuming he stays healthy for 8 months, he's going to be very, very rich.
Carmona was one of the breakout pitchers in 2007 having moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation. PECOTA is calling for a rather big step back in 2008 (3.06 ERA, 1.21WHIP in 2007 to 4.13, 1.41 in 2008) and this is probably more in line with his peripherals. While he has elite groundball tendencies, his strikeout rate is below average and he's probably closer to Derek Lowe than Brandon Webb. That's still very valuable, just not the type of ace stuff you would build around.
In 2009: Sizemore, Carmona and possibly Asdrubal Cabrera (22, 2B/SS, .283/.071/.138 in 186 MLB PAs) depending on how next season goes. Sabathia will not be up for consideration here as he'll be wearing pinstripes in February 2009 (Hey C.C., note that #52 is not taken).

DETROIT TIGERS (88-74, 89-73, 2nd place AL Central)
My Choice: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, 25 (.320/.081/.245, 34 HRs in 680 MLB PAs)
For all of my fawning over Sizemore who is an elite talent in the present day, Cabrera has a solid chance to go down as one of the all-time greats. He's probably not lasting at 3B for more than another season or two and, yes, he doesn't have the perfect physique, but the numbers don't lie. In his age 24 campaign, Cabrera was one of only three players (Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones the others) to finish in the top 20 in both OBP and isoP at a non traditional power position (1B or corner OF). Possibly more convincing, Baseball Reference's similarity scores list Hank Aaron as Cabrera's top comp in each of his four full major league seasons. If forced to choose, there probably isn't a better bet for the Hall of Fame among current players 25 and under.
Also Considered: Curtis Granderson, CF, 27 (.302/.059/.250, 23 HRs in 676 MLB PAs), Justin Verlander, SP, 25 (21.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 2.7 K/BB, 42.7 GB% in 201.7 MLB IPs), Jeremy Bonderman, SP, 25 (19.3 K%, 6.4 BB%, 3.0 K/BB, 49.6 GB% in 174.3 MLB IPs)
UNM's favorite player Granderson exploded last year while achieving the apparently coveted 20-20-20-20 season. While he should be a high isoP, great defense, great baserunning CF for the period being discussed, his OBP could be a concern. In 2007, he benefited from a .360 BABIP and had a rather mediocre isoD of .059. If his hit rate regresses without gains in plate discipline, he falls down a level.
I'd probably end up picking Verlander on atleast half the teams in baseball but he loses out because of the Cabrera trade. His power arsenal finally translated into a strong strikeout rate last season and, to harp on a personal preference, he has that great pitching frame (6'5, 200). If I end up doing a top 20, I'm sure Detroit will end up with two entries.
Bonderman I'm listing just because the sabermetrically inclined like myself cannot figure out why his ERA can't get in line with his peripherals. I've seen the 1st inning numbers and the HR rate could stand to fall but his other peripherals have been strong three years running. Its always frustrating to watch a pitcher with great stuff who is unable to harness it (Daniel Cabrera) but its another level of exasperation altogether when you know a pitcher is actually performing well without it being reflected in his results. Maybe next year. Again.
In 2009: All of the above plus maybe Rick Porcello (SP, 19, 2007 1st round pick, 27th overall) who could follow the Clayton Kershaw path up the minor league ladder. Even if he does, its Cabrera's slot to lose.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (69-93, 74-88, 5th place AL Central)
My Choice: Alex Gordon, 3B, 24 (.247/.067/.164, 15 HRs in 600 MLB PAs)
It was a tough rookie season for Gordon but he's still a fairly easy choice on Kansas City. This pick is based completely on his tremendous AA season in 2006, universal preseason 2007 rankings and his 2008 PECOTA projection. To try to figure out what happened in 2007 seems almost impossible but I've been writing a paragraph per player so I'll soldier through. Here are his splits ...
1st half: .232/.089/.126 in 334 PAs
2nd half: .264/.051/.208 in 267 PAs
In the first half, Gordon had an awful batting average and exhibited very little power but reached base via walk or HBP once every 8.5 plate appearances. In the second half, he registered an isoP over .200 but saw a dramatic dip in his OBP. (Its worth noting that the OBP is either weird or deceptive depending on how you look at it as he was hit by 12 pitches in the first half but only once in the second. Again, I can't figure this out.) If he were an unknown I probably wouldn't consider him here but given his reputation, I'm more or less throwing 2007 away and accepting his projected .269/.076/.194 PECOTA line as a big step forward.
(Just an aside here: On his Baseball Reference page, the sponsor post reads "The tradition of great Royals third-basemen continues ... Brett, Seitzer and now Gordon". Seitzer? Really? If the greatness of those players is shown in graphic form, Royals fans need to hope for something resembling the letter V.)
Also Considered: Billy Butler, DH/1B, 22 (.292/.055/.155, 8 HRs in 360 MLB PAs), Zack Greinke, SP, 24 (20.9 K%, 7.1 BB%, 2.9 K/BB, 32.6 GB% in 122.0 MLB IPs), Joakim Soria, SP?, 24 (27.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 3.9 K/BB, 41.1 GB% in 69 MLB IPs)
Depending on which scouting report you read, Butler is going to be a very good or a great major league hitter. This isn't sounds harsher than the sentiment behind it, but regardless of the level he hits at, a 22 year old designated hitter isn't someone you build around. If he were able to play a passable 1B or LF he might still not beat out Gordon but it would be a lot closer.
Greinke and Soria are both included more for CYA purposes than because they were considered. There are too many ifs with Greinke. If he can put in a full season in the rotation and if he stays healthy both physically and mentally, he's a #2 or maybe even a #1. If not, he could fail to contribute anything. Soria is a bit of a different story. He put together a stellar year in the Royals pen last year but I wouldn't pick him as a reliever for reasons previously stated. From what I've read, Soria was quite effective as a starter in the Mexican leagues which is indicative, at the very least, that he has the stamina to pitch in the rotation. If he's able to make a jump similar to that of Carmona or Adam Wainwright without losing too much off his strikeout rate, he'd have to be considered next year.
In 2009: Mike Moustakas (SS, 21, 2007 1st round pick, 2nd overall) probably won't be close enough to the bigs next year to consider but he's still worth mentioning as a future up-the-middle offensive star. If I can wishcast Butler to 1B, they could be 75% to a great 2010s infield.

MINNESOTA TWINS (79-83, 80-82, 3rd place AL Central)
My Choice: Joe Mauer, C, 25 (.293/.089/.133, 7 HRs in 471 MLB PAs)
Just looking at the stats alone Mauer took a step back from his near MVP 2006 campaign but, upon closer examination, there really isn't much to be concerned with. The main differences lie in a 25 point drop in isoP and an almost 50 point drop in isoD. The latter is easy to explain; Mauer was really hit lucky in 2006. A BABIP anywhere near .364 (his 2006 rate) is unsustainable for all but a few players so the regression in his batting average should have been expected. His isoD remained steady so its pretty safe to pencil him in for an OBP of .370+ again in 2008, an exceptional number for a catcher. The isoP dip is a little tougher to explain away but given that his XBH/AB was nearly the same in the first half of 2007 as it was in 2006, I'm willing to blame it on the quad injury. While PECOTA isn't expecting the power of 2006 to return, I'm willing to bet on Mauer getting his isoP back up around .150. If he does, he's a contender for the title of best catcher in baseball. Even if it doesn't, he's a safe bet for the top 5 and he's still just 25. Hopefully all baseball writers who derided the Twins for picking Mauer over Mark Prior have offered their apologies by now. Probably not.
Also Considered: Justin Morneau, 1B, 27 (.271/.072/.221, 31 HRs in 668 MLB PAs), Delmon Young, LF, 22 (.288/.028/.120, 13 HRs in 681 MLB PAs), Francisco Liriano, SP, (Missed 2007 with Tommy John surgery)
In my somewhat humble opinion, Morneau is one of the more overrated players in baseball. To be considered a superstar at 1B, you should have consistently huge offensive numbers. Even in the "MVP" season of 2006, Morneau's OBP was only .375 which is hardly an elite rate. When viewing Morneau's 2006 next to his 2007, there is legitimate reason question his overall offensive game. Morneau's isoD remains too low for a slugger of his caliber so his OBP will annually be too reliant on the balls falling in (.375 OBP, .328 BABIP in 2006, .343 OBP, .270 BABIP in 2007). This probably means that he's destined to be more of a .360 OBP guy rather than one who consistently sits in the .380-.400 range. For a 1B, even one with a plus glove like his, that's not good enough.
Young I'll just give a passing mention to. I'm not sure I get the love for him; he hasn't shown the ability to hit for power above the AA level and his plate discipline has never been there. Hopefully there's a good deal of progress in his future because last year's low isoD/isoP combination in a corner OF position is barely above replacement level. At only 22 there's still plenty of time for growth, but I think Tampa was wise to move him when they did.
Liriano could very well be the best pitcher in baseball in a couple of years I'll look dumb for picking Mauer (if anyone is actually holding me accountable for anything I write here, which is doubtful). I've heard about his velocity being back and I know Tommy John surgery is more of nuisance than anything else at this point but to rank him over Mauer, I need to see that he's all the way back. Quite possibly the choice in 2009.
In 2009: I'll add Carlos Gomez (OF, 22, .232/.056/.072, 2 HRs in 139 MLB PAs) here on the outside chance he proves to be a dynamic force in CF but I really don't forsee that happening. I still can't believe Bill Smith didn't get a single blue-chip prospect in the Santana deal. Bad work.

Notes & Corrections:
- Original ground rules are in the February 26th AL East post.
- To clarify, the second record next to the team name is their 2007 Pythagorean W-L. It really adds nothing to what I'm attempting to do but it shall remain there all the same.
- I should have included James Shields on the "Also Considered" list for the Rays. He'd slot above Garza but behind Longoria, Crawford and Kazmir. That's how deep Tampa Bay is; I listed 10 different players and still forgot about one I'd pick on several other MLB teams.