Sports Frog

LOS ANGELES ANGLES OF ANAHEIM (94-68, 90-72, 1st place AL West)
My Choice: Howie Kendrick, 2B, 24 (.322/.025/.127, 5 HRs in 353 MLB PAs)
Sigh. Kendrick's numbers thus far at the major league level aren't the type that would normally catch a sabermetrician's eye, especially the terrible plate discipline (14 unintentional walks in 636 professional PAs) and the unsustainably high 2007 BABIP (.381). For that reason, 2008 is a big season for him; another low isoD/isoP performance or another injury that costs him 50 games and maybe expectations will have to be reeled in a bit. Still, I can't help but look at the 90th percentile PECOTA projection (.316/.039/.210), factor in the hand injury last year and think Howie's much closer to unlucky than underdeveloping. Given 650 PAs, I'll put faith in Kendrick establishing himself as the hitting star so many analysts expect him to become and eventually bumping the isoD up to respectability. Even if the last part doesn't happen, that .359 minor league average in over 1,600 plate appearances can't be all hit luck. He's a player until proven otherwise.
Also Considered: Francisco Rodriguez, RP, 26 (31.6 K%, 11.9 BB%, 2.6 K/BB, 45.6 GB% in 67.3 MLB IPs)
Rany Jazayerli had a great article a couple weeks back about what it is Krod has accomplished over his first 300+ games and what he stands to accomplish if he can stay healthy. The full version is here; the summary is that Krod is a near lock for the Hall of Fame if the next decade of his career simply stays in the same neighborhood as his first five seasons. All well and good and reasonable, but even at his current level, its only 500 (great) innings over 7 years, so I'll pass.
(Whenever people question if a pitcher like Joba or Papelbon or Dempster should start or relieve, look at it that way. Over 7 years, its 500 innings versus 1,250. That's a huge, huge difference.)
((I was kidding about Dempster. He should probably stay in the pen to minimize the damage.))
In 2009: Brandon Wood (SS/3B, 23, .272/..066/.225, 23 HRs in 488 AAA PAs) has massive power upside but the strikeouts are worrying and the isoD has never cracked .070 in a professional season. If I didn't know a thing about his reputation (1st round pick, top 10 on most 2007 preseason prospect lists), I'm not sure I'd see his upside beyond present day Mark Reynolds. Time will tell, I guess.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (76-86, 67-95, 3rd place AL West)
My Choice: Daric Barton, 1B, 22 (.293/.096/.145, 9 HRs in 604 AAA PAs)
There isn't really a lot to choose from by way of young, major league proven talent in Oakland after their latest selloff. I guess Joe Blanton should be considered here but he's already 27 and, unlike Beckett, hardly has an elite repertoire. Just a quick glance at his ERA splits (2.69 in Oakland, 5.11 elsewhere) probably tells you all you need to know about why Beane hasn't been able to move him as easily as he did Danny Haren and Nick Swisher. Expect Blanton to eventually go to a desperate contender around the break and expect said contender to end up quite disappointed about their return.
I'm sort of backing into Barton with this choice. It came down to him or Travis Buck and they appear almost identical to me. What (slight) current advantage Buck has in power and position (corner OF vs. 1B), PECOTA expects to be gone by the midway point of this exercise as Barton forecasts to have an OBP edge approaching 20 points. Buck is more proven at the MLB level but I'm going to place a little faith in Barton's strong 84 PA stint (13 XBHs, 10/11 BB/K) being a decent indicator that he can handle MLB pitching. Neither would even come close to a top 25 list of players I'd build around and, honestly, all this hedging is probably my equivalent of a pass. Or atleast a shrug of the shoulders. Whichever best conveys "I don't know, they're both the same to me".
Also Considered: Travis Buck, RF, 24 (.288/.089/.186, 7 HRs in 334 MLB PAs), Huston Street, RP, 24 (31.7 K%, 6.0 BB%, 5.3 K/BB, 43.5 GB% in 50.0 MLB IPs)
Street is an interesting case here and the reliever I referred to in the introduction as the one I would consider starting with. He could make sense in that there's a much better chance he's remains an elite closer than there is of Barton or Buck becoming elite hitters. Also, I could have gone with a cop out and said "well, I could always trade him in a year" but starting a franchise with a player you're hoping to trade seems awful. In the end, Street's position and injury concerns worked against him and I passed. If he can't get the nod on this team, there's no reliever I can imagine considering.
In 2009: Carlos Gonzalez (RF, 22, .288/.048/.190, 17 HRs in 547 AA & AAA PAs) was the key player Oakland received in the Haren deal and a quick promotion to the majors along with strong play in RF would vault him into consideration this time next year. It's debatable whether Oakland will want to start his arbitration clock in 2008 but with the AL West looking soft and some pretty suspect players filling RF/CF, it can't be ruled out.
Rich Harden (SP/RP, 26, 27.0 K%, 11.0 BB%, 2.5 K/BB, 38.7 GB% in 25.7 MLB IPs) is still young enough to merit mention here but until he can match his 31 starts from 2004, he's nothing more than a CYA level consideration. (Either that or I wanted to include him so I could again mention that he pitched the foul ball I caught last year at the Stadium. On the fly. Without a glove. Yeah, it was awesome.)

SEATTLE MARINERS (88-74, 79-83, 2nd place AL West)
My Choice: Felix Hernandez, SP, 22 (20.4 K%, 6.4 BB%, 3.2 K/BB, 61.5 GB% in 190.3 MLB IPs)
The trade of Adam Jones to Baltimore makes this quite possibly the easiest choice in the American League. King Felix finished his age 21 season with a sub 4.00 ERA in 190 innings and the 12th best QERA at 3.30. The most impressive part of his arsenal is his command; Hernandez's 20% strikeout rate isn't overly surprising for a pitcher his age promoted to the majors but the 3.2 K/BB certainly is. Add in a groundball rate that ranked behind only Derek Lowe, Fausto Carmona, Brandon Webb and Tim Hudson and its impossible to not assume future stardom. However, there is a concern, and a big one at that. Without kinesiologists, there might have never been a negative word spoken about Hernandez, but pitching analysts seem universally agree that his future health is a massive concern. PECOTA, which is without sight bias, seems to agree as his top 10 comps show a mix of legends and flameouts with one scary theme: early exits from the major leagues ...
1. Jeremy Bonderman: Similar arsenal, dissimilar results
2. Don Drysdale: Hall of Famer despite short career (out of majors at age 32)
3. Larry Dierker: Out of majors at age 30
4. Bert Blyleven: Outlier; pitched until age 41 and will be in the Hall of Fame as soon as the voters get their heads out of their collective asses
5. Dean Chance: Out of majors at age 30
6. Bret Saberhagen: Injuries derailed Hall of Fame career
7. Storm Davis: Done as a starter at age 28
8. Bob Moose: Died at age 29
9. Milt Pappas: Out of majors at age 34 (albeit for personality, not arm, issues)
10. Dwight Gooden: Legendary early peak, effectively done at age 28
So, yeah. Scary.
Also Considered: Brandon Morrow, SP/RP, 23 (22.8 K%, 17.3 BB%, 1.3 K/BB, 36.6 GB% in 63.3 MLB IPs)
While the ERA was a decent 4.12, Morrow winning the walk rate title (going away) is a pretty good indicator that Seattle mishandled one of their top young arms. Had his ERA been in line with his peripherals, he would have sat at well over 5.00 for the season and likely been back in the minors by July for some much needed time above High A competition. In order to become an above average starter or top closer down the line, Morrow needs to drastically improve his command without losing strikeouts in the process. Succeeding at this will be in spite of his handling by the Mariners so it's far from a safe bet.
In 2009: Seattle has several high upside hitting prospects in Jeff Clement (C, 24, .275/.095/.222, 20 HRs in 530 AAA PAs), Wladimir Balentien (RF, 23, .291/.073/.218, 24 HRs in 544 AAA PAs) and Carlos Triunfel (18 year old SS prospect) with the first two possibly seeing action in 2008. Both are ready for the majors but are blocked as Seattle made the questionable decision to make a run this season. On one hand, it's somewhat logical with Oakland in full rebuilding mode and Texas in modified rebuilding mode. On the other, they were much further behind Los Angeles than the short term upgrade from Adam Jones to Bedard makes up so odds are this is all going to end up being a very costly run at 2nd place in the West and, at best, 7th in the AL.
(A side note: This team is completely devoid of offensive talent at the major league level. Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt are the only regulars under 27 and both will likely be bottom third hitters for their careers. Unless two of the three prospects listed above end up being well above average or Seattle spends a lot of money in free agency, this team could really, really suck in 2 or 3 years. King Felix needs to think atleast twice before agreeing to any long term deal that buys out free agent years.)

TEXAS RANGERS (75-87, 79-83, 4th place AL West)
My Choice: Ian Kinsler, 2B, 26 (.263/.092/.178, 20 HRs in 566 MLB PAs)
Kinsler is another tough guy to analyze. On the surface, he had a really strong year exhibiting power, speed, plate discipline and above average up-the-middle defense yet he was anything but consistent. Kinsler exploded out of the gates with 9 HRs in the first 24 games but then hit only 11 in his remaining 130 games. His OBP saw similar highs and lows with a.267 mark in May rising up to a September peak of .403. What's nearly impossible to say is how much of this inconsistency can be attributed to the stress fracture in his foot that sidelined him most of July and whether it affected him well beyond the missed games. The slightly stranger aspect to Kinsler's season lies in his splits which show drastic decreases in both average and power outside of Texas (.312/.086/.211 at home, .215/.098/.147 away). The batting average is easy to explain; he suffered from a .232 road BABIP which is almost certain to bounce back atleast 50 points in 2008. The power variance is a little more difficult to figure out given that he had an isoP that was 64 points higher when playing in near neutral Rangers Ballpark (2007 Park Factor: 97, 3 Year Park Factor: 100, slightly deeper in LF/LCF than RF/RCF). Going back a season to 2006, his splits are even more pronounced with an isoP a full 137 points higher at home. I have no idea what to make of this and a cursory glance shows that he's not alone. Texas as a team almost tripled both the average OPS (Rangers +75 points, league +27) and ERA (Rangers -0.95 runs per game, league -0.38) advantages teams usually saw at home last year. If anyone is familiar with the Rangers or their park and has a theory on why both hitters and pitchers were so dramatically better at home last year, I'd love to hear it. Since this isn't a simple case like a Colorado hitter mashing at home, I'll simply accept his season as a whole and include him on a growing list of very good young 2B.
(I'm aware that Oakland and Seattle are somewhat drastic pitcher's parks inside the division, but that only explains the Kinsler side of the splits. Why are Ranger pitchers also benefiting from staying home? Is there some really obvious park related quirk I'm missing or is it just a fluke?)
Also Considered: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C/1B, 23 (.266/.044/.156, 11 HRs in 329 MLB PAs), Josh Hamilton, CF, 27 (.292/.076/.262, 19 HRs in 337 MLB PAs)
The headline prospect in the Mark Teixeira deadline megatrade last year, Saltalamacchia flashed some impressive power (if not discipline) while splitting time between catcher and 1B after coming to Arlington. His minor league numbers suggest the walks will come and PECOTA likes him quite a bit (.269/.068/.177, 48% Breakout Rate), so all signs point to a bright future. If I were confident he could remain at catcher he would have given Kinsler a strong run. However, with a superior defensive backstop (Taylor Teagarden) quickly rising and Gerald Laird slotted for plenty of time behind the plate in 2008, his future looks like 1B. That's enough to knock him down to runner-up position.
The cynic in me can't get on board with Hamilton the baseball player just yet; it was only a half season's worth of PAs. The baseball fan in me would love no story more than Hamilton conquering (as best one can) his past problems and becoming an All-Star. Forget knee injuries and other minor obstacles overcome, this is the one story every fan should be rooting for. Hopefully 12 months from now, I'm laughing at myself for only giving him a secondary mention.
In 2009: Neftali Feliz (20 year old SP, also from Teixeira trade) is the Rangers top minor league prospect at this point but is still several years away from making his debut (unless traded to Seattle, I guess). Saltalamacchia, Hamilton and Kinsler will likely battle for this spot again next year.

Notes & Corrections:
- Original ground rules are in the February 26th AL East post.