Sportsfrog.com

Not your brain, but the muddled playoff picture yet to come into focus in the NBA playoff picture. Twelve teams are locked in (seven in the East, five out West), but only the top three in the East (Boston, Detroit, Orlando) are locked into their seeds. Over the remaining 78 games spread over the next nine days, the last few spots will be decided. Here’s a brief look at how things will play out.

Eastern Conference

Cleveland is in fourth, 19.5 games out of the one-seed. Washington is in fifth at 21.5 out, Philadelphia in sixth at 22.5 out, and Toronto is in seventh at 23.5 out. Atlanta has the final playoff spot all but sewn up, holding the eighth seed at 25.5 games behind, but three games ahead of New Jersey.

(At this time, I would like to apologize to the Philadelphia 76ers. I had them picked to finish 14th in the East in the preseason. Whoops. Chicago, my preseason conference champion, you get no apology. You should be apologizing to me. Now, back to the predictions, if making more predictions is not a bad idea.)

REMAINING SCHEDULES:

Cleveland – NJ, @CHI, MIA, @PHI, DET
Washington – BOS, @DET, PHI, IND, @ORL
Philadelphia – DET, IND, @WAS, CLE, @CHA
Toronto – MIL, NJ, @DET, MIA, @CHI
Atlanta – @IND, @NY, BOS, ORL, @MIA

The Cavaliers will do well enough down the stretch to hold on to the four-seed. The games first three games should enable them to secure the two wins needed to maintain homecourt advantage for the first round. Why do the Cavs need only two wins in their final five when the Wizards are two back? In spite of playing very good basketball lately (15-8 since the last week of February), the Wizards will drop the first pair of their remaining five to the top dogs in the conference.

Philly, meanwhile, will split their first two to be tied with the Wiz going into their head-to-head matchup. Of course, the loser of that game may be the winner in the grand scheme of things, as the #6 seed looks to be the preferred slot due to a first-round matchup with Orlando instead of either Detroit or Cleveland. With the return of Gilbert Arenas to health, the Wizards have to worry about getting Agent Zero healthy. They already sat him in the second game of the one back-to-back set they have had since he returned to the active roster, so him sitting him for precautionary reasons in their second back-to-back (the Philadephia game) seems normal. By virtue of a win in that game, the Sixers will climb ahead of the Wizards for the #5 spot. Both teams will split their final two, keeping Washington as the sixth seed.

Toronto has staggered down the stretch, dropping four of their last five and 15 of their last 21 to fall below .500. They’ve had serious problems on the road in that time, with ten losses in their last dozen road outings. Shoddy defense is the primary cause, as the Raptors have given up 104 points per game in that span. When you take out Miami’s 54-point stinker, it goes up to 106.6 per contest. The Raptors will notch a couple home wins to ensure they stay ahead of the Hawks, who will hang onto the final playoff slot.

The West, as you are undoubtedly aware if you follow the NBA in any way, is jam packed at the top. New Orleans currently is the top dog with San Antonio and the Lakers both 1.5 games out. Utah has the fourth seed due to their lead in the Northwest Division (and will sew up the division with either a win or a Denver loss) and is 3.5 games behind the Hornets. Houston is in the five-hole at 2.5 games out and Phoenix one game behind them in sixth. Dallas has a fairly secure grasp on the seventh spot at 6.5 games out and Denver and Golden State are knotted up and 8.5 games out with Denver currently holding the tiebreaker due to winning two of the three games thus far.

REMAINING SCHEDULES:

New Orleans – UTA, @MIN, @LAL, @SAC, LAC, @DAL
San Antonio – PHO, SEA, @LAL, @SAC, UTA
Los Angeles – @POR, @LAC, NO, SA, SAC
Utah – @NO, @DAL, DEN, HOU, @SA
Houston – SEA, PHO, @DEN, @UTA, LAC
Phoenix – @MEM, @SA, HOU, GS, POR
Dallas – SEA, UTA, @POR, @SEA, NO
Denver – @LAC, @GS, @UTA, HOU, MEM
Golden State – SAC, DEN, LAC, @PHO, SEA

New Orleans, while sporting the league’s third-best record, is not reliant on an overwhelming home record to get to the top spot in the West. In fact, the Hornets have the seventh-best home record in the league and fifth-best in the West. Their second-best road record, however, will help them hold on to the top spot. The Hornets should bag three of their remaining four road games, falling to the Lakers. Throw in what should be a rout of the Clippers and a likely win over Utah, who is not much better than a .400 team on the road, and New Orleans will lock up the #1 slot.

Both the Spurs and the Lakers will drop one game down the stretch (San Antonio to the Suns, Los Angeles to the Spurs). That head-to-head Spurs’ win will give them the season series at 3-1 over the Lakers and the second seed that goes with it. Los Angeles hangs on to the third seed. Utah has the toughest schedule down the stretch of all the playoff contenders, but will clinch their division and the fourth seed, either with a Denver loss on April 10 at Golden State or by defeating the Nuggets two days later in Salt Lake City.

After their long winning streak ended, the Rockets have been 6-5, but have won their last three on the road against lesser competition (POR, SEA, LAC). The big game that will go a long way to determining which squad gets the desired five-spot will be the Rockets hosting the Suns. The Suns have won two of three against Houston, including a nine-point victory after the Rockets’ win streak went down. The Suns will win their final five games to seize the five-spot, including a win in the matchup that will sentence the Rockets to the sixth seed.

Dallas is two games up on both Denver and Golden State with five to play. Two games against Seattle and one with Portland should provide them with enough victories to be locked in the seven spot. Denver and Golden State, however, is where it gets interesting.

The Nuggets and Warriors go head-to-head for the final spot and Golden State certainly appears to have the advantage on the schedule. If they can knock off Denver when the two teams face off Thursday night, Golden State will have an inside track on the final spot. Denver, however, has won two of the previous three games between the two squads, including the lone game in the Bay Area earlier this season (124-120 on December 28). Denver has been shaky on the road, currently standing 15-23 away from Denver and a pair of road losses to non-playoff teams in their last two outings (SAC, SEA) does not bode well for them. The Warriors will win that contest and, with three other home games against non-contenders, snatch the final postseason spot from the Nuggets.