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It’s been a while so here’s a quick team-by-team recap of the American League before we head into the National League.

Baltimore Orioles: Nick Markakis, RF, 25
Boston Red Sox: Josh Beckett, SP, 28
Chicago White Sox: Nick Swisher, CF, 27
Cleveland Indians: Grady Sizemore, CF, 25
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, 25
Kansas City Royals: Alex Gordon, 3B, 24
Los Angeles Angels: Howie Kendrick, 2B, 24
Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer, C, 25
New York Yankees: Philip Hughes, SP, 22
Oakland Athletics: Daric Barton, 1B, 22
Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez, SP, 22
Tampa Bay Rays: B.J. Upton, CF, 23
Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler, 2B, 26
Toronto Blue Jays: Alex Rios, RF, 27

Where the AL West was relatively unexceptional outside of Felix Hernandez, the NL East is full of under 30 stars across the board. If reading this entire article is in your plans, quickly try to figure out who you’d pick from the five NL East teams before clicking ahead. Atleast for me, three of the five teams are no-brainers, one is somewhat easy and the last is tough but for reasons of depth, not scarcity.

ATLANTA BRAVES (84-78, 88-74, 3rd place NL East)
My Choice: Mark Teixeira, 1B, 28 (.306/.094/.257, 30 HRs in 575 MLB PAs)
This was the one I considered somewhat easy but not quite a no-brainer. Teixeira is a bit older than most of the guys I’ve selected and 1B is a relatively easy position to fill but I still can’t pass. He’s nearly the ideal mix of average, plate discipline and power with the added bonus of having a good glove and plus range at first. His combined OBP last season of .400 ranked 16th overall and his .257 isoP ranked 11th. If the PECOTA comps are any indication (Top 5: Eddie Murray, Lance Berkman, Willie Aikens, Willie McCovey, Fred McGriff), there’s an 80% chance of future Hall of Fame consideration and a 20% chance of a lengthy prison sentence. Obviously, I’m banking on the former. While Teixeira may not have the wow factor that comes with Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder, outside of Albert Pujols there’s not a 1B I’d rather have.
Also Considered: Jeff Francoeur, RF, 24 (.293/.045/.151, 19 HRs in 696 MLB PAs) Brian McCann, C, 24 (.270/.050/.182, 18 HRs in 552 MLB PAs)
It’s often overlooked that Francoeur and McCann were rushed up to the majors and that both just turned 24 during the offseason. Out of the two, I gave greater consideration to McCann in large part because of his position. Given the 50 point drop in BABIP from 2006 to 2007 (.332 to .282), it’s probably safe to assume he’ll bounce back atleast a little and consistently sit in the .280-.290 range. When combined with an isoP approaching .200, McCann should be a lock for a spot among the top 5 offensive catchers over atleast the next 5 years.
Francoeur is the type of player who appears to have all the raw talent in the world to become a superstar but suffers from one massive flaw. In his case, it’s a lack of plate discipline and a (reported) lack of interest in correcting it. The power dip in 2007 is somewhat concerning as well although he has posted a .265 isoP thus far in 2008. If the walks don’t come but his batting average stays safely in the high .200s, his defense and plus arm should guarantee that, at worst, he’s league average overall in RF. If he can either maintain an elite isoP or improve on his discipline, the ceiling rises much higher.
In 2009: With Teixeira as the top hitter available in free agency and therefore likely to leave the mid-market Braves, next year’s choice will likely be Francoeur if he breaks out or McCann if Francoeur remains stagnant. If both took steps backward, Jordon Schafer (CF, 21, .312/.062/.201, 15 HRs in 626 A/A+ PAs) looked to be a potential candidate until it was announced last week that he was being suspended for the use of banned substances. Even if Schafer’s 2007 improvements were mostly based on talent versus the benefits of HGH, the stunted development of losing 1/3rd of his 2008 season knocks him out of contention.

FLORIDA MARLINS (71-91, 72-90, 5th place NL East)
My Choice: Hanley Ramirez, SS, 24 (.332/.054/.230, 29 HRs in 706 MLB PAs)
Ramirez is a terrible SS, that much has been well established. People will always focus on the negative so until Florida (or his next team) decides to make a move, we’re going to hear a lot of “he’s a great hitter but …” I suggest ignoring it. None of Ramirez’s deficiencies with the glove matter, especially when projecting him, because a 24 year old with 30/50 ability and the athleticism to easily move to CF or LF is pretty close to a sure thing. SBs can be overlooked as a mere fantasy stat but the fact that Ramirez can take an extra net of 35-40 bases on top his 80+ natural XBHs makes him a virtually unrivaled offensive weapon. When the 2005 Red Sox/Marlins trade is reviewed 20 years from now, there’s a better than even chance that Beckett for Ramirez will rank among the great talent for talent swaps in baseball history.
(Somewhat interesting side note: Since even those of us in love with statistics didn’t tout Ramirez for MVP last season (despite an 8.5 point VORP lead over David Wright), it seems funny that his top age 23 Baseball Reference comp is one of the most underappreciated baseball player of all time: Dick Allen. Hopefully Ramirez goes to the OF soon because the longer he stays at short, the better chance he has of remaining linked with Allen as far as the gap between on field contributions and off field recognition is concerned.)
Also Considered: Jeremy Hermida, RF, 24 (.296/.073/.205, 18 HRs in 484 MLB PAs)
On another team, Hermida would get strong consideration but the presence of Ramirez and Hermida’s ever lingering health issues push him to a distant 2nd. However, a strong 2nd half last year (.340/.061/.215) makes him a major breakout candidate assuming the initial DL trip was his last for 2008.
In 2009: Cameron Maybin (CF, 21, .316/.093/.207, 14 HRs in 385 Rk/A/AA PAs)
I love Maybin and if you’re going to trade a guy on a Hall of Fame career path like Miguel Cabrera, he’s among the best prospects you can hope to get in return. If the precedent Ryan Howard set in arbitration scares the Marlins into moving Ramirez after this season, Maybin will be a strong option for the top spot in Florida next year.

NEW YORK METS (88-74, 86-76, 2nd place NL East)
My Choice: David Wright, 3B, 25 (.325/.091/.221, 30 HRs in 711 MLB PAs)
I have no idea whether I’ll end up doing an overall ranking but, if I do, the #1 slot is going to be a no-brainer for me. If Teixeira is a near ideal hitter, Wright is the near ideal player since there is nothing he can’t do. I’ve read complaints about his defense but his RZR was above average last year and his out of zone total of 88 balls fielded easily led all MLB 3Bs. On the offensive side, Wright can hit, shows great discipline, flashes plenty of power in a pitcher’s park and can swipe 30 bases. His final line from 2007 is even more impressive when you remember that he was hitting below .250 with no HRs entering May. With a much stronger first half of April in 2008, this could be the season people cease debating the best young player in baseball and immediately move on to who’s second.
Also Considered: Johan Santana, SP, 29 (26.8 K%, 5.9 BB%, 4.5 K/BB, 39.5 GB% in 219.0 MLB IPs), Jose Reyes, SS, 25 (.280/.074/.141, 12 HRs in 765 MLB PAs)
Santana likely wouldn’t be the choice on too many teams just because his combination of age, size and repertoire makes me worry about his near future, let alone his long term future. I realize that probably seems dumb given that I’m talking about the undisputed best pitcher of the last half decade, but I’ll be shocked if his Mets contract doesn’t end up being a mistake. Still, it wouldn’t seem right to leave him out completely.
Reyes has pretty much silenced every concern about him thus far in his major league career (injury prone, plate discipline issues). While 2007 could be considered a slight disappointment due to a dip in power and an abysmal September, it’s still a strong season relative to 96% of major leaguers. Like Verlander in Detroit, Reyes would likely give the Mets two entries in my top 20 but has to settle for 2nd on his own team.
In 2009: As long as established young stars like Wright and Reyes are in Flushing, there’s almost no chance of a wild card emerging as a better choice. Fernando Martinez (OF, 19, .265/.066/.111, 4 HRs in 269 AA PAs) is probably the only future star left in the system but he’s still several years out and even his perfect world projection ranks behind both Wright and Reyes’ present.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (89-73, 87-75, 1st place NL East)
My Choice: Cole Hamels, SP, 24 (23.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 4.1 K/BB, 44.2 GB% in 183.3 MLB IPs)
This is the one choice I’m not completely sold on but, like I said, it’s not because I don’t love Hamels. That he’s league average inducing ground balls is going to hurt him as long as he plays in Philadelphia, but that’s more of a comment on the situation than the player. Among pitchers with 100 IPs last season, Hamels ranked 8th in strikeout rate while maintaining a K/BB above 4.0, all at age 23. More importantly, he was able to reach 180 innings last season which, while still representing 5 missed starts, is a step in the right direction. If his arm can stay healthy, he has the size (6′3, 190) to remain in the select group of true aces he joined last year for a long time to come.
Also Considered: Chase Utley, 2B, 29 (.332/.078/.234, 22 HRs in 613 MLB PAs), Ryan Howard, 1B, 28 (.268/.124/.316, 47 HRs in 648 MLB PAs), Jimmy Rollins, SS, 29 (.296/.048/.235, 30 HRs in 778 MLB PAs)
While Utley certainly takes advantage of Citizens Bank Park (.372/.074/.256), simply doubling his production on the road (.296/.081/.213) would still be good enough for him to retain his title as best 2B in baseball. If this were his age 27 season rather than age 29, I’d probably go with Utley over Hamels here.
Much like Reyes above, Howard’s 2007 is only a bit disappointing when compared to his own stellar 2006. His OBP predictably fell from .425 with a decrease that nearly matched his drop in BABIP. With the lower BABIP came a lower batting average, but .268 is still perfectly fine when maintianing an isoP over .300. Howard should be great for atleast another three seasons but after that it’s hard to bet on him to stay well above average, especially as a National Leaguer. While Willie Stargell may be the outlier on Howard’s side, there are many more fitting his profile who saw their steep declines start at or soon after age 30.
I didn’t really consider Rollins here but I don’t feel like having one of the Philly contingent call me out for ignoring him. I won’t even bother rehashing the OBP issue, instead I’ll simply make a prediction that he’ll put up a relatively similar line in 2008 and no one will claim he was robbed when he finishes outside of the top 10 in the MVP voting. Perhaps the NL voters just wanted to see if they could top the nonsensicality of the AL voters who elected Justin Morneau the year before. If so, well played, gentlemen; you atleast matched your junior circuit counterparts.
In 2009: None. Philadelphia’s system is empty of elite prospects at the higher levels and there aren’t any pre-peak young players on their major league roster. If Hamels suffers an injury this season, it becomes a really tough choice given that Howard will be entering his age 29 season and Utley and Rollins will be in their 30s. Hopefully Philadelphia’s ownership realizes this is a three or four year window and plays it accordingly.
(Side question(s): A Philadelphia writer who will go unnamed here (hint: arrogant, journalistically lazy, unsmall) mentioned during the spring that the Yankees would kill to have the five player core that the Phillies have (Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, Myers). After spending atleast an hour trying to decide who the Yankees core would be and eventually settling on Rodriguez, Cano, Jeter, Hughes and Chamberlain, I decided I probably agreed. This led me to a couple of follow up thoughts. First, is Jeter or Posada the right answer here as the 5th? I’m confident the kids are #4 and #5 since those are the pitchers the Yankees wouldn’t even consider parting with while Wang could be had, I just couldn’t settle on the 3rd hitter. Second, it should be noted that five is somewhat cherry-picking because if you expand the criteria to six players and add in Posada and either Burrell or Victorino, the advantage swings to the Yankees. The more spots you add, the stronger the advantage goes to New York. So yes, the Phillies have the better five. The Yankees have the better six, seven, eight, etc, etc. That made me feel better in the end.)

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (73-89, 70-92, 4th place NL East)
My Choice: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, 23 (.266/.064/.192, 24 HRs in 722 MLB PAs)
Zimmerman’s line doesn’t look all that impressive until you remember that he did it as a 22 year old in one of the toughest parks to hit in for 2007. His glove alone makes him a breakeven proposition at 3B so as his hitting stats predictibly improve, his value shoots upward. After a dramatic walk-off in the season’s U.S. opener, Zimmerman has struggled so far in 2008. I’m willing to chalk this up to a slow start rather than continuation of last year’s line as he’s one of those players both scouts and statheads agree upon; PECOTA actually forecasts Zimmerman to have more value than Miguel Cabrera over the next 7 years when defense is factored in. I may not agree, but simply having a shot at that level speaks to his potential.
Also Considered: Lastings Milledge, CF, 23 (.272/.069/.174, 7 HRs in 206 MLB PAs)
Omar, Omar, Omar, Omar … What the hell were you thinking? And what are commentators/fans thinking by lumping Milledge in with real troublemakers? So what if he wrote his own awful rap lyrics instead of singing along with someone else’s or that he’s young and cocky or that he (gasp!) high-fived fans? The kid is a major talent and he was given away for a bad catcher and a mediocre 29 year old OF. Unless something really, really awful happened but was never been reported on, this is one of the dumber trades I can recall in quite a while and Milledge could end up as a frightening what-if bookend for recent Mets history opposite Scott Kazmir. Even if he never accomplishes anything in the majors, Minaya sold low on the value attached to potential. I have to imagine that atleast 20 other GMs simultaneously cursed when they realized how little they could have traded for Milledge.
In 2009: He’s not there yet and there’s a solid chance he never will be, but I have to atleast mention Wily Mo Pena (LF, 26, .253/.066/.186, 13 HRs in 317 MLB PAs). On an adjusted per PA basis, PECOTA projects Pena to hit 30+ HRs given full-time duty. The upper limits could actually be a bit higher but there’s an equal or greater chance he struggles and opens the door for another OF to steal his PAs.

Notes & Corrections:
- Original ground rules are defined in the February 26th AL East post.