Sports Frog

I know what you're thinking. The season isn't even a month old. It's way too early to read anything into player statistics. Have I forgotten all about sample sizes? Fear not, I'm only here to share a quick glance at one of the very few stats that is relevant at this point: BABIP. Hitting BABIP is odd in that it does matter early in season but only because a more prominent related stat, batting average, doesn't matter yet. Make sense? Without boring you with all the numbers, in the past 3 years, 929 players have accumulated 251 or more PAs. Of those 929, only 2 have had a BABIP below .225 and only 2 more have exceeded .399. Basically, anything outside of or even near those extremes will likely be corrected towards the mean (~.303) over the next 5+ months of the season. However, since there are plenty of reactionary owners in every league that see an early low batting average and decide the guy has lost it (even more so in the PED era), opportunities arise. With this in mind, I give you a list of 22 players who currently have BABIPs under .225 and were projected by PECOTA to earn atleast $10 in AL or NL only leagues. Obviously not every one of these guys will bounce back to their projected levels due to injuries, lost playing time or just an off year, but now is the time to make a discounted offer on ones you like.

$30+ Projected Value:
Alfonso Soriano, CHN, LF, .175 AVG, .182 BABIP, .263 ADJ AVG
David Ortiz, BOS, DH, .160 AVG, .172 BABIP, .267 ADJ AVG

$20 - $29 Projected Value:
Adam Dunn, CIN, LF, .189 AVG, .216 BABIP, .245 ADJ AVG
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS, 3B, .215 AVG, .224 BABIP, .278 ADJ AVG
Troy Tulowitzki, COL, SS, .176 AVG, .213 BABIP, .243 ADJ AVG
Carlos Pena, TBA, 1B, .206 AVG, .189 BABIP, .270 ADJ AVG
Rickie Weeks, MIL, 2B, .174 AVG, .184 BABIP, .261 ADJ AVG
Russell Martin, LAN, C, .197 AVG, .222 BABIP, .262 ADJ AVG
Gary Sheffield, DET, DH, .192 AVG, .220 BABIP, .250 ADJ AVG

$10 - $19 Projected Value:
Robinson Cano, NYA, 2B, .169 AVG, .176 BABIP, .286 ADJ AVG
Jim Thome, CHA, DH, .222 AVG, .220 BABIP, .270 ADJ AVG
Paul Konerko, CHA, 1B, .172 AVG, .167 BABIP, .276 ADJ AVG
Jose Guillen, KCA, RF, .173 AVG, .214 BABIP, .240 ADJ AVG
Corey Patterson, CIN, CF, .186 AVG, .135 BABIP, .339 ADJ AVG
Travis Buck, OAK, RF, .154 AVG, .213 BABIP, .215 ADJ AVG
Placido Polanco, DET, 2B, .148 AVG, .160 BABIP, .278 ADJ AVG
Adam Laroche, PIT, 1B, .132 AVG, .182 BABIP, .208 ADJ AVG
Austin Kearns, WAS, RF, .212 AVG, .222 BABIP, .273 ADJ AVG
Bill Hall, MIL, CF, .211 AVG, .209 BABIP, .268 ADJ AVG
Frank Thomas, N/A, DH, .167 AVG, .159 BABIP, .267 ADJ AVG
Ben Broussard, TEX, 1B, .180 AVG, .182 BABIP, .260 ADJ AVG
Casey Blake, CLE, 3B, .179 AVG, .214 BABIP, .250 ADJ AVG