Sports Frog

Back with more NBA predictions, this time playoff-style. My preseason ones weren't that bad, save for the catastrophe known as the Chicago Bulls' 2007-2008 season. Of course, with Skiles having already been shown the door and interim replacement Jim Boylan getting the opportunity to polish his resume, at least someone other than me is getting punished for them screwing up my predictions. Even with the abomination of the Bulls, I still hit six of eight playoff teams from the East (Philly and Atlanta in, Chicago and New Jersey out) and all eight in the West from the October picks.

Let's try it again with the first round of the postseason.

Eastern Conference

Boston vs. Atlanta

Boston has lost once all season to a team that finished under .500 (home to Charlotte, 95-83 on January 9. While Atlanta won 11 of 16 to clinch a postseason spot, the Hawks still finished under .500 this year. Atlanta finished 18th in the league in point differential (worst among all playoff teams) and 16th in the NBA in field goal percentage differential (14th among all playoff teams). Boston finished first in both of those categories.

There is no fancy analysis to write about this series. It is simply the best team in the playoffs against the worst one.

PREDICTION: Celtics in 4.

Detroit vs. Philadelphia

The two teams split their four match-ups, but Philly won both games in the last five weeks of the season, including the finale on April 9, which Rip Hamilton sat out. In the four contests, both teams attempted 299 field goals with the Pistons making one more (131-130). However, when you remove the meaningless (to the Pistons) final game, Detroit outshot them head-to-head, 44.0 percent to 41.2 percent.

Philly has been a great story this season, especially since they rattled off a 22-8 stretch from early February to the last week of the season. The problem is that the better team tends to win in longer series. Detroit will lose their focus for a game in Philly, but still easily take the series from a young Sixer team.

PREDICTION: Pistons in 5.

Orlando vs. Toronto

While Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh are the top players on these teams, point guard play should have a lot to say about this series. The Magic are 26th in the NBA in turnover differential (1.2 more per game than their opponents) while the Raptors are second at 2.1 fewer per game.

The Raptors' record is a little deceptive. They're a lousy 4-11 without Chris Bosh, which means they are 37-30 (.552) with him, which projects out to 46-36 over a full season. Not great, but certainly better than the .500 squad they are on paper. Orlando is significantly better on the road than the Raptors are, though, which should be enough to get them a series win.

PREDICTION: Magic in 6.

Cleveland vs. Washington

In the 27 games since the Cavaliers overhauled their entire squad with a pair of trades that were supposed to bring them some offense to ease LeBron James' load, Cleveland has scored 95 points per game. They averaged 96.4 points per game over the course of the entire season. I guess that trade hasn't worked out as planned, seeing as how their scoring has dropped a couple points per game since the swaps.

Of course, that probably won't matter since DeShawn Stevenson chose to run his mouth. He's going to get embarrassed a lot in this series. He'll get some serious time guarding James and it'll cost the Wizards. They'll make a series of it because there will be nights when Antawn Jamison cannot be stopped by the tired Ben Wallace, but LeBron will walk away from a first-round match-up with the Wiz with a smile for the third consecutive season.

PREDICTION: Cavaliers in 7.

Western Conference

Los Angeles vs. Denver

In the 27 games where Pau Gasol has played for the Lakers this season, they are 22-5, with one of those losses coming in the game where he went down early in the first quarter. In games with Andrew Bynum, the Lakers have gone 25-11. With neither, they are 10-9. As long as Gasol stays healthy, they should be fine because Lamar Odom truly benefits as a third option behind the Spaniard. Since Gasol suited up, Odom has averaged 15.7 points and 11.9 rebounds.

Denver plays too loose to be a serious threat in this series. Yes, Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony are fantastic offensive players, but neither one is going to slow down Kobe Bryant for an extended period of time and the rest of the Nuggets don't play good enough team defense to shut down a deep Laker squad. Many of the role players for Los Angeles shoot the three well (Fisher, Radmanovic, Vujacic, and Farmar), as evidenced by their rank of fifth in the league in triples made. Denver's poor perimeter defense (third-most threes allowed) only plays into the Lakers' hands. The high altitude helps give the Nuggs a tremendous home court advantage, but the Lakers are also the owners of the second-best road record (tied with Orlando).

PREDICTION: Lakers in 5.

New Orleans vs. Dallas

These two teams each held serve on their home floor in this match-up, including a pair of contests since Jason Kidd joined the Mavericks. The last game may have been the most telling, as Kidd went for an impressive triple-double (27 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) in the season finale. However, for as much play as some have given the Mavs for their resurgence of late with a couple last-second wins (Phoenix and Utah), they're still a ho-hum team since the big trade (16-13 compared to 35-18 before the swap). The Hornets, however, are inexperienced in the postseason, but have the magical Chris Paul leading the way.

I don't have any truly fancy analysis for this series. The two teams are both very good at home and have shown that against each other. Playoff experience may be overrated in light of last year's Golden State upset of Dallas. I think this is simply going to come down to who the best player on the floor is, which is clearly Paul. Combine that with a 35-year-old Kidd trying to guard him and I just think the world is going to get very familiar with the NBA's next great point guard.

PREDICTION: Hornets in 7.

San Antonio vs. Phoenix

The marquee series of the first round is a re-match of the two teams who had such an interesting match-up in the conference semifinals last year. The big difference is obviously that Shawn Marion is gone and Shaquille O'Neal is in for the Suns. Since that trade went down, these two teams have met twice with the Suns taking down the Spurs both times. The key for Phoenix in those games has been their defense, holding San Antonio to 38.3 percent shooting, including Tim Duncan only making 17 of 40 shots. Duncan finished those two games with 40 points and 20 rebounds, which is just fine. The difference being in the first two games (the teams split them), Duncan went for 52 points and 34 rebounds.

While the Spurs finished with a strong closing kick by winning 12 of their final 15, that came on the heels of losing six of seven. That 22-game span featured the two losses to Phoenix. Add in that Amare Stoudemire has been magnificent since O'Neal has joined the Suns (28.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 58.8 percent from the floor) and hung 37 points per game up on the Spurs in the 2004-2005 conference finals and I just feel that the Spurs will end with a much shorter playoff run than they are accustomed to.

PREDICTION: Suns in 6.

Utah vs. Houston

Utah has outscored their opponents by 588 points in 41 home games, which is an average of 14.3 points per game, en route to a 37-4 home record. In contrast, the Jazz have been outscored by 24 points in 41 road games. At one point, the Jazz lost 11 of 12 on the road, including seven in a row. Too bad for them, Houston has the home court advantage.

With Yao Ming on the shelf, Tracy McGrady gets to carry the load for the Rockets. This may not be a good thing. While losing their franchise center is an obvious blow and McGrady's numbers should take a hit since opposing defenses can focus on him, here are T-Mac's numbers since Yao went down, first during the final 10 games of their 22-game win streak, then the 15 games McGrady played after that time:

45.9 percent FG, 28.7 percent threes, 24.3 points per game

36.0 percent FG, 19.6 percent threes, 20.3 points per game

With numbers like that, it appears the McGrady is tiring down the stretch under carrying the offensive load. Mix in that Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur will not be challenged much on defense in the post and things do not look promising for the Rockets even though the Jazz are not that good away from the Delta Center. While McGrady will be able to pull out a couple great performances and help the Rockets to a couple wins, he will still be looking for that elusive first postseason series win.

PREDICTION: Jazz in 6.