Going Home and Going Home?
The seventh game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals is upon us. How exciting. I think I can get away with some snark about my excitement because the two teams have failed to crack 80 points six times thus far. Let's look at some things that have happened to this point and see if there is anything Cleveland can do to break through in Boston or if the Celtics will just continue to roll at home.
Ray Allen has been a disappointment in this series, averaging just over 10 points per game on 34.5 percent shooting. The one facet where he has been consistent is in his work at the line, making 19 of 20 free throws in the series. Kevin Garnett has been huge at home, tallying 22.3 points and 12 rebounds per game on 60 percent shooting from the field (30-for-50). The Celtics' team defense has been masterful in Boston, holding the Cavaliers to 36.6 percent from the field in their victories (they've allowed Cleveland to make 43.8 percent of their shots in the three losses). In addition, Boston has allowed Cleveland to make 48 assists while forcing 44 turnovers in the home victories while allowing 63 assists and forcing 31 turnovers in their road losses.
While LeBron James has posted 22.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per contest in Beantown, he's also had some serious problems, shooting a hair under 30 percent from the field and turning it over 21 times in those three games. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has probably been the most successful Cavalier in Boston. He has averaged 15.7 points and eight rebounds per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the floor (19-of-35). Someone, anyone on the Cleveland bench has to make a positive contribution. In the three losses at Boston, the Cavalier bench had mustered 15.7 points per game while the C's have gotten 21.7 points per game from their reserves.
For Boston to win:
1. Ray Allen needs to be assertive with the ball and drive on Wally Szczerbiak. Allen's touch from the line is consistently excellent and cheap points will be supremely valuable in what is likely to be a low-scoring game.
2. Forget about Sam Cassell. In spite of being an up-and-down player in the series, Rajon Rondo has played well enough to merit the big minutes, especially since his on-the-ball defense is superior to either of the reserves (Cassell and Eddie House).
3. Just feed off the crowd and play your normal level of team defense.
For Cleveland to win:
1. Get the ball to Zydrunas Ilgauskas early and often, both on the block and in face-up situations, with him instructed to be decisive with his offensive moves, reacting before the double-team can arrive. If Big Z can get going early and force the Celtics into some defensive adjustments, including doubling him, things will open up for the other offensive players.
2. Do not stick with Ben Wallace if he is not playing well and bring in Anderson Varejao. Varejao's combination of size and athleticism makes him Garnett's toughest match-up and, as has been illustrated in the past, Garnett can become deterred and look to pass in the waning minutes.
3. Encourage Delonte West to drive occasionally early in possessions, especially when Ilgauskas is out of the game. West scored 21 points in Game Five in Boston after tallying seven points in the first two contests in Boston. Burying 10-of-13 free throws was the key to that success.
The pick is still the original: Cavaliers in seven. LeBron James simply should be able to get to the rim and score big buckets, just like he did last year in ripping out Detroit's heart to get to the Finals. Besides, has anyone seen Steve Javie lately?