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May 20, 2008

NBA Frog Preview: Eastern Conference Finals

The Detroit Pistons, who have been the dominant franchise of the Eastern Conference for the last six years with conference final appearances in each of those seasons, take on the new (this time) face of the East Boston Celtics with a trip back to the NBA Finals on the line. In fact, the last time the Pistons failed to reach the conference finals was at the end of the 2001-2002 season when the Celtics derailed them in the semifinals, dispatching them in five games. That marked the last conference finals appearance for the C's until this season. Paul Pierce is the only player still in Boston while the Pistons have no one from that squad still around. Where have you gone, Corliss Williamson?

Boston claimed two of the three games between the two this season, both of them after Detroit won the opening contest. Each team also won once on the other squad's floor with the Celtics claiming the third game on their home floor. As should be expected, all three games were low-scoring affairs, as each team broke the 90-point barrier in one game. The Celtics accomplished an impressive feat in each game by bettering the Pistons in both field goal percentage and rebounding. Boston outshot Detroit in the season series, 45.7 percent to 38.6 percent, and beat them on the boards by an average of almost ten rebounds per game (they finished +3 in the Detroit win). Bench play has had an effect on the outcome of all three match-ups this season, as the team with more bench scoring has won each game. Detroit finished +9 in bench scoring in their lone win while Boston carded +16 and +10 marks in their two victories.

Kevin Garnett has been the driving force for the Celtics' offense against Detroir, averaging 24 points per game on 54.2 percent accuracy from the floor. Paul Pierce is his only teammate to get into double figures in each contest against the Pistons, averaging 15 points, but on 36.6 percent shooting. In his biggest game in the series (19 points), Pierce got to the line for eight attempts, while in the other two games, he attempted a total of five free throws, so getting to the line is essential for him. After Ray Allen went off for 24 points in the first game, Detroit figured out how to defend him, limiting him to 12 points on 4-of-17 shooting in the two Boston wins. Rajon Rondo scored 16 and Glen "Big Baby" Davis came off the bench for 20 to provide the third option in separate wins.

As should be expected, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace keyed Detroit's offense in each game. The three combined for 56.7 points per game against Boston in the season series. The team's top scorer in both the regular season and in the first two playoff series, Hamilton dropped in 18 points per contest, ripping the twine on 51.2 percent of his attempts. Billups was also in double figures in all three games, shredding the C's for 22.7 points per game and getting a lot of his damage in at the line, connecting on 30-of-35 charity shots. Wallace averaged 16 points against Boston, but required a lot of shots to get there, hitting only 40 percent of his hoists from the field (20-of-50).

The big dogs should be in for a long series resembling a slugfest at times. Both teams grind their opponents down on defense and are unblemished on their home floor in the postseason thus far. The problem for Boston is that Ray Allen has hit a shooting slump at an inopportune time. Allen's shooting slipped to 32.8 percent from the field in the semifinals against Cleveland (on the heels of a 3-for-12 effort in Game Seven in the first round against Atlanta). Hamilton should not have a lot of difficulty outscoring Allen in the series. Tayshaun Prince should, at the very least, make Pierce work very hard for his scoring. In addition to Hamilton's offense, Billups should be able to keep things going, as none of Boston's point guards will be able to consistently stop him. Detroit has played three fewer playoff games and has had six days off, which should enable their championship-tested bunch to hold off the Big Three Bridesmaids from getting to heights of the Finals.

PREDICTION: Pistons in six.

In January 2003, a group of sports-loving friends launched The Sports Frog. In the time since, we have become an oasis for intelligent sports discussion on the Web. That's right, we said oasis. If you are here for the first time be sure to swing by The Swamp and join the conversation.
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