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May 5, 2008

NBA Frog Preview: NBA Postseason, Part 3

The last installment of the second round previews follows for your amusement.

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS

Boston vs. Cleveland

A hearty "thank you" goes out to the Celtics for choosing to join the NBA's second round of the postseason. Should we be excited about them now that they face a legitimate challenge from last season's Eastern Conference champs or should we be less than impressed by the way they allowed the Hawks to hang around by dropping all three games in Atlanta?

Boston led the NBA in point differential during the regular season, outscoring their foes by a whopping 10.3 points per game. Even though they were taken to the limit by the Hawks, they still outscored them by an average of a dozen points per contest. I'm confused as to whether that means anything other than the Hawks pulled out narrow victories while the C's are very comfortable at home, where they will play a potential deciding Game Seven. Home has been good to the Celtics against Cleveland, as well, as they won both contests there while dropping the two at the Q. Just as they exhibited in the first round, Boston's defense against the Cavs is significantly better at home than on the road. In the two home wins, the Celtics held the Cavs to 35.6 percent shooting while hitting 44.5 percent of their shots. In the two road losses, the C's gave up 49.4 percent shooting while achieving the same level of marksmanship.

In the Cavs' two regular season victories over the Celtics, Lebron James led the way with 35.5 points per game. No surprise there. He also tallied 12.5 assists per game. It will be interesting to see how Boston responds defensively - stop Lebron as much as they can or stop the other players around him. Cleveland was the top rebounding team in the NBA, grabbing 4.2 more boards a game than their foes, but Boston finished in a tie for third at +3.1 boards per night. When the two teams went head-to-head, the Cavs outrebounded Boston by an average of five per game. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, in particular, is a pain in the neck for the C's frontcourt, clearing 12.5 boards per game in the season series. His offense is what is key for the Cavs, as he averaged 18 points in the two wins on 50 percent from the field. Z only averaged 10 points on 33.3 percent shooting in the two losses. His worst performance came in the game Lebron missed back in December, as he clanked 9-of-12 that night.

Unlike the Hawks, the Cavs aren't going to play timidly on Boston's floor. They have Lebron James, who can handle any defender they throw at him and set up teammates as need be. Had the Celtics rolled through the Hawks like expected given the discrepancy between the two teams' regular season resumes, I would expect them to take it. After being forced to go to seven to beat a lesser team, I don't see it.

PREDICTION: Cavaliers in 7.

In January 2003, a group of sports-loving friends launched The Sports Frog. In the time since, we have become an oasis for intelligent sports discussion on the Web. That's right, we said oasis. If you are here for the first time be sure to swing by The Swamp and join the conversation.
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