Sports Frog

I'm glad I checked the NBA scoreboard today because I didn't realize the second round was starting. That's on me, though, as I should have figured that it wouldn't be the NBA Playoffs if some teams didn't have the chance to get a second round game in prior to two teams not deciding their first round. I would ask, "Who runs this league," but we all know the answer (Ernie Johnson at TNT). Thus, the San Antonio-New Orleans write-up is hurriedly done, but that shouldn't stop it from having the same low-quality analysis I generate at the office. See, some of us have jobs, Anti-Blog Nation! (In full disclosure, I am writing this while on the couch, but it is in my home, not my mother's basement. Also in full disclosure, I wrote the to-be-released Los Angeles-Utah preview (at work) before Game 6 of the Utah-Houston series even though New Orleans-San Antonio was set. Pretty bright, huh?)

In any case, I guess you truly cannot win them all, or in the case of the Phoenix Suns, they cannot win against the Spurs at all. Hitting six out of seven is nothing to look down on, though, and if Boston (the 66-win Boston Celtics!) can pull out Game Seven at home (against an under-.500 team!), it'll be seven of eight.

In any case, I'm back to offer predictions for the conference semi-finals. I can tell you're excited.

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS

Detroit vs. Orlando

The Pistons woke up after a slow start in the first round and came back from a 2-1 deficit to roll of three straight to advance past Philadelphia. The played stifling defense to get past the Sixers, but face a dimension from Orlando that Philly simply does not have - three-point shooting. You thought I was going to say, "Dwight Howard." Detroit gave up the fewest points in the league in the regular season, in part because they held their foes to 33.2 percent shooting from deep, the second-lowest figure in the NBA. Orlando was fourth in the league in three-point proficiency, hitting 38.6 percent of their threes, which is all the more impressive when you consider that they attempt over 25 treys per game (second-most in the league). Tayshaun Prince will only be able to guard one of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, who combine for just under a dozen bomb attempts per night. Oh yeah, and there's that man-child named Dwight Howard who operates with all that freedom thanks to stretched defenses.

The Magic, however, have to deal with Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton. Neither Jameer Nelson nor Carlos Arroyo has the size to slow down Billups and Hamilton will cause fits for the two-guards in Maurice Evans and Keyon Dooling. Billups had a sub-par shooting series against the Sixers (40.3 percent from the floor), but should find the going easier against the Magic, having shot 45.5 percent against them in their four games this year. Hamilton also had an easy time with the Magic, nailing 57.8 percent of his shots this season.

Look for Prince to be given the draw of stopping Turkoglu, who is much more multi-faceted as a threat than Lewis, who Rasheed Wallace is athletic enough to guard. The concern in this situation, however, is Dwight Howard having room to operate down low against either Antonio McDyess or Jason Maxiell. Expect double-teams to come from the Piston guards to try to limit what Howard does. Howard will also get some attention from Wallace, who has the strength and skill to work against the league's biggest centers. There will be a couple nights where the Magic hit enough outside shots to take games, but Hamilton should have a field day and score 18 or more in every game, powering the Pistons to the series win.

PREDICTION: Pistons in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS

New Orleans vs. San Antonio

Obviously, Chris Paul is the engine that makes the Hornets go. Against the Spurs, there is a clear difference in how he played in their wins and their losses. In their two wins, Paul posted 21.5 points and 14 assists per game on 57.1 percent shooting from the floor (20-of-35), but hung 22.5 points and 5.5 assists per game on 50 percent shooting from the floor (19-of-38). The assists led directly to New Orleans' point totals, as they tallied an average of 101 points in the two victories while only posting 87 points per loss. As a result, expect the Spurs to allow Paul to score, but focus on taking the Hornets' other big scorers out of the games. David West has been the big beneficiary of Paul's dimes when these two teams have met, posting 30.5 points per game while busting 70.7 percent of his shots (29-of-41) while tallying only 15.5 points on 41.9 percent shooting (13-of-31) in the two losses. Peja Stojakovic is only averaging 11 points per contest against the Spurs, but 15.5 points in their wins.

The Spurs have simply been a Jekyll and Hyde team when facing the Hornets. Not only were the four games split between the two teams, but each team won once and lost once on their opponent's home floor. It seems that the one of two Spurs' teams shows up and they are simply either very good or very bad. In San Antonio's two wins, they outrebounded the Hornets by an average of 6.5 boards per game and dominated the shooting on both ends of the floor, making 50 percent of their field goal attempts (77-of-154) and holding the Hornets to 43.4 percent (69-of-159). The two losses show a striking difference, as the Spurs have been pounded on the glass, finishing at -13.5 boards per game. The field goal shooting numbers are just as horrific, as the Spurs made only 42.3 percent of their shots (66-of-156) but allowed New Orleans to bury 56.4 percent of theirs (88-of-156).

Simply put, the Hornets' chances in this series will turn on Chris Paul's ability to get his teammates easy buckets. San Antonio will try to take them away. Many experts claimed the Hornets' playoff inexperience would trip them up in their opening series. While I didn't think that was the case, I learned the hard way about how the Spurs handle pressure situations with how they snuffed out the Suns in the first round. After that, I simply can't big against them, as they consistently make big shots and pressure opposing players in big moments. Stojakovic hasn't had the greatest results in high-pressure situations (clanking one off the side of the backboard in the waning seconds of a Western Conference Finals game against the Lakers while with Sacramento), which underlines the gap between these two teams. It'll be enough to get the Spurs over the hump.

PREDICTION: San Antonio in 7.