Sports Frog

The New Orleans-San Antonio match-up is similar to the Boston-Cleveland in that it features a veteran-laden team expected to win the NBA title in the pre-season and a team that dominated by a superstar on the rise, as well as the home team holding serve in the throughout the series. In fact, the home teams have been so dominant in this series that not only has every game has been decided by double digits, only one game has had a margin of victory of under 18 points.

The young superstar Chris Paul has led the way for the Hornets, topping the team in points (24.7) and assists (10.2) per game in the series. His numbers have been impressive in the victories, notching 23 points and 13 assists per game while compiling an assist-to-turnover ratio of 9.75-to-1, but the disparity in assists underlines the importance of David West and Peja Stojakovic to the Hornets' attack. West has averaged 26 points and 11 rebounds in the wins while Stojakovic has hit for 18.7 points on 55.6 percent shooting from the field (20-of-36) and 8-of-13 from downtown. In the losses, West has barely gotten halfway to his scoring mark (14.3 points per game) while Stojakovic has tallied only nine points per game while knocking down 38.5 percent of his shots (10-of-26) and 2-of-5 treys in all three games combined. Long distance shooting has been an unspoken key for New Orleans, as they are burying a mere 25.7 percent from deep in their losses (9-of-35), but a sizzling 52.4 percent (22-of-42) in their wins. In fact, in their loss in Game Three, the Hornets narrowly outshot the Spurs from the floor, but their anemic three-point shooting (2-for-11) cost them (the Spurs hit 11-of-25 to make up nine of the 11-point margin).

The Spurs seemed to have figured out a way to stop New Orleans' offense, holding them under 45 percent shooting in each of the last three games and 42.0 percent overall in that time. Rebounding has also been the key, as the Spurs' victories have all featured San Antonio winning the battle of the boards (they trailed in this statistic in each of the losses). Tim Duncan has led the way here, averaging 14.3 boards in San Antonio's wins and 11.3 in their losses (this number is skewed by him grabbing 23 caroms in their Game Five loss). Duncan's shooting has ailed the team, too, as he has made only 12-of-38 shots (31.6 percent) in their losses. As poor as he's been in their losses is as good as he's been in their victories, connecting on 57.5 percent from the floor (23-of-40) in their wins. Manu Ginobili's promotion to the starting lineup has paid off, as he has averaged 24.3 points per game in the last four. Its not just the total points, either. Ginobili's points per 40 minutes is up to 27.2 in the last four as compared to 25.4 points per game off the bench in the opening games.

For New Orleans to win:
1. Get West and Stojakovic rolling early. Chris Paul hasn't had problems scoring in this series (or doing whatever he wants, basically), so getting the next two big threats going should set the tone.

2. Kill the bunnies. By that, I mean make the easy shots. In the three wins, the Hornets have tallied assists on 69 of their 113 field goals (61.1 percent). In the losses, it is a mere 40 of 107 (37.4 percent).

3. Slow down the Spurs not named Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The two guards have shot an excellent 51.5 percent in victories, and a fair 44 percent in the team's losses (the two shot 47.8 percent on the year). The rest of the squad has shot 48.2 percent in the team's victories, but only 38.0 percent in the losses.

For San Antonio to win:
1. Start the third quarter with intensity. The Spurs have held halftime leads in five of the six games, including all three of the losses. The team winning the third (and exiting the period with the lead) has won every game.

2. While it will be difficult due to sagging and doubling Chris Paul on forays into the lane, run the Hornets off the three-point line. This includes having Bruce Bowen guard Stojakovic whenever the two are on the floor at the same time. Bowen should be able to get under Stojakovic's skin, which could be a huge factor in the deciding game.

3. Help out Duncan on the glass. Duncan is averaging 11.3 boards per game. Kurt Thomas is second on the squad at 5.8 rebounds. Someone needs to step up and help keep West and Tyson Chandler (18 rebounds per game in the series) off the glass.

The pick is still the original: Spurs in seven. The cliché says that defense is the one facet of a team's game that always shows up. The Spurs bring it, plus the other cliché, "championship experience." I don't like picking based on these tired maxims, but I just believe in the Spurs' abilities when it counts.