Out on the limb of a Torrey Pine?
Sergio Garcia is my pick to win this week. There. I said it. Not groundbreaking, by any stretch, considering the Spaniard is coming off his career's biggest win (last month's Players Championship) and also a good finish, a tie for fourth, at the surprisingly high-scoring (read: low-scoring, I think) St. Jude in Memphis.
Garcia has played well before at Torrey Pines, carding a tie for eighth in 2006, which was the last time he teed it up for the Buick Invitational. In the past two seasons Garcia has stayed away from the West Coast swing a bit more, opting to really get going on the Florida stretch of the schedule. Still, he'll be drawing on his last appearance for confidence,. What he will have to do is block out a 4th round 75 on a day when an even par round would have won the event. It'll be important for him to draw on his performance down the stretch at the Player's instead.
Torrey Pines is long by every standard. So long as to measure longer than any other US Open course ever when measuring the max distance from the tees to the green, though the tees and pins will move each day and I doubt that there will be any day where all of the tees are all played at their furthest point. Sergio isn't in the category of the Bubba Watson, the longest player off the tee on Tour, but he also isn't Fred Funk, one of the shortest. What he is is a happy medium of the two. At the Player's Sergio's accuracy and length won the tournament for him, along with some dramatic putting and a great shot into the green on the last.
Sergio isn't the straightest, but if he's on his game, he can be for four days. Add in that he will probably be hitting three wood on many of the par fours to avoid running through the fairway and the chances of a good driving week go up. If he's in the fairway, his irons will be as good as ever -- he's 14th in Greens in Regulation percentage. He should find plenty of greens.
Which, of course, is where the fun begins with Garcia. Never a great everyday putter, he is one of the streakiest in the world. See only his Ryder Cup experiences for evidence. Too many times to count he's nailed a long putt to sink an American's hopes. So he can putt, it's just a matter of having it happen the right week. And that's about having confidence and nailing those Pau-Gasol-length par putts. Confidence is key on those shots, and Garcia will again need to draw on his experience at Sawgrass.
It all came together for Sergio at Sawgrass, another long and firm course. And while lighting doesn't strike twice, here's saying it happens again this week. After all, golfers are streaky by nature. Even Tiger is, he just happens to be in the midst of a streak that is eleven years long, so far.
You can have Tiger vs. Phil in the ultimate battle for Torrey Pine supremacy. I'll take Sergio. If he can put it together just a month after The Player's Championship, we can finally say that El Nino is living up to his potential.