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Yes, I know it’s a wee bit premature to already hoist the banner at the Trop. Who even said that they are definitely going to make it as a Wild Card having been losers of seven straight heading into the All-Star Break?

Bud Selig may have done one right thing in his 16+ years as the commissioner of MLB, and that was making sure the All-Star Game had a winner so that one of the leagues gets home-field advantage for the World Series. Since the new rule was instituted in 2003, I have been a strong advocate against it considering that the American League has been winning the All-Star Game every year since the Martin Van Buren Administration. That is to say, the Wild Card, which “supposedly has the worst seed” in the playoffs and at times has a worse record than other division or league champions, gets the four home games should the Series go the distance. Yes, the team that gets in with maybe 86 wins will snatch the Wild Card, win seven games to get to the Series, and the NL Champion (we’ll say the Cubs) winning about 98 games (12 games or so ahead of the AL Champion) gets penalized by hosting one less game – all because of a creation to avert tie games in future All-Star events.

However, here is my theory that the Tampa Bay Rays will represent the American League in the World Series this season. It’s great that it is a “feelgood” story for 2008, but I really hate to see four games at a ballpark where fly balls can hit the catwalk sitting at least 10 feet below the roof and still be considered in play, even if it pinballs itself on the catwalk before the ball finally drops itself onto the field of play.

Every year since the new rule was created, the American League has won the All-Star Game and home-field advantage.

2003: New York Yankees (best AL record)
2004: Boston Red Sox (AL Wild Card)
2005: Chicago White Sox (best AL record)
2006: Detroit Tigers (AL Wild Card)
2007: Boston Red Sox (best AL record)
2008: ???

See the pattern??

But let’s delve even further to the World Series and maybe give the trophy to the Rays. Look at the results of the World Series since the Y2K threats, with the Wild Card team still listed as the loser:

2000: NY Yankees, NY Mets lost as the WC
2001: Arizona
2002: Anaheim (WC), San Francisco was the other WC
2003: Florida (WC)
2004: Boston (WC)
2005: ChiSox, Houston lost as the WC
2006: St. Louis, Detroit lost as the WC
2007: Boston, Colorado lost as the WC

So the Wild Card winner is due to win the Series this year, and with the pattern listed, it will belong to the Tampa Bay Rays.

Hey, let’s look on the bright side. This may be the one World Series throughout which East Coast viewers like myself will actually be going to bed before midnight toward the end of October.