Sportsfrog.com

(Editor’s Note: Because the author is competing in Hood To Coast next week this entry is being posted one week early.)

Once upon a time, The Sports Frog had a feature called The Big Bet. The idea was every day one of the Frog’s writers would pick a single game to bet on and then post the results. One day it might be basketball, the next college hockey and so on. Whatever that day’s writer felt the most strongly about. Money would be made and fun would be had. Things didn’t work out quite that well, but it was a cool experiment.

So with a half decade of discussing sports betting behind us, it’s time to see how well I can do picking the week’s college football games. Since I live in Las Vegas, I’m likely to throw down real money on a lot if not most of my weekly best bets and put my money where my mouth is. If this feature is a disaster, then you might see me panhandling on the Strip next time you come to town.

Here’s how it is going to work — I’m going to pick 10 games to feature every week, the top five games of the week (in my estimation) and the top five best bets across all of college football. On rare occasions, my best bets may overlap among the top games of the week, but more often than not they won’t.

(If you’re wondering why that is, typically there is better value following and betting on the non-BCS conferences. The services that set the lines are still smarter than the average bettor, but even they spend more time following the BCS conferences.)

Top Games

Some slim pickings this week (as you might expect from the season’s opening week).

Tennessee (-7) at UCLA — So begins the Rick Neuheisel Era in Westwood. A top-level SEC team and what should be a multi-touchdown loss. UCLA may start showing signs of life later in the season, but it is going to be a tough road to hoe for the season’s first few weeks.

Fresno State (+6) at Rutgers — I like Fresno State to win this game outright and may bet the money line if I can find it around +200. For the purposes of this discussion I definitely like them with 6 points. Rutgers is breaking a lot of new talent on offense.

Alabama (+5) at Clemson — This was a tough one to pick. I’m not very high on Alabama, but Tommy Bowden doesn’t exact have the best record in tough games at Clemson either. When in doubt, take the points.

So. Cal (-20) at Virginia — Like most ACC teams, Virginia has a very solid defense and the temptation is to take the three touchdowns and assume Virginia will lose in a scoreline like 28-10 or something like that. I think SC is going to be looking to send a message in the opening week however. I know about the questions at QB and the other injuries they’ve suffered, but the Trojans are still going to roll.

Missouri (-8.5) vs. Illinois — Ron Zook has attracted a lot of talent to Champaign but it is still very green and likely to struggle at times this season. The only thing that scares me is that it is a rivalry game with a history of close contests in recent years, but I’ll still give the points thinking MU should win by 14 or 17.

Best Bets

Wyoming (-10) vs. Ohio — The Cowboys have hopes of a bowl season this year and a coach on the hot seat in Joe Glenn. They also have an underrated home field advantage because of the altitude in Laramie. You’ll probably see me betting a lot of Mid-American Conference games in the best bets because I follow the conference very closely and frankly, I’m not a big fan of Ohio this year. I think the Bobcats are going to struggle, especially early in the season. They may get things together later in the year, but the first few weeks may provide some value betting against them depending on the lines. This is probably a three touchdown win for Wyoming.

Colorado (-11.5) vs. Colorado State — I initially thought this line was Colorado +11.5, which would have been a no-brainer, but thinking about it I still think Colorado should win this pretty easily despite it being a rivalry game which is usually closely contested. (Though instead of throwing heavily on Colorado, I’ll probably only stick to one unit.

Tulsa (-14.5) at UAB — Tulsa is another team that most casual college football fans should know more about because the Golden Hurricane are fun to watch. They score points in bunches (and usually give up points in bunches as well), but should tally an easy win over UAB.

Oklahoma State (-6) at Washington State — The Cowboys should roll pretty easily in this one, even on the road. Washington State would be a strong candidate for the “title” of worst BCS conference team.

Oregon State (-3) at Stanford — One of the few conference matchups in the opening week. I like the value here since you’re really almost betting on Oregon State to win, which it should do relatively easily. I’d be surprised if Stanford is more competitive than it was last year (legendary upset against USC aside).

Editor’s Note: Depending on when you might have read this entry, you might have noticed a change to the entries for the Colorado/Colorado State and Oklahoma State/Washington State games. Basically, we need to find an online odds site that is a little easier to read and more accurate. We regret the confusion.