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Week two in the NFL is the pinnacle of what some call, National Jump to Conclusions Week.

I took a look back over the past six seasons to see how 1-0 and 0-1 teams have done in their second game of the year. While the results were as I expected, with no real decisive numbers that you can put as down payment on a house, there are some interesting trends.

The below table is a breakdown teams and their record versus each other. The visiting team record and visiting team result are each listed first. So, in the first box of 2007, when a 0-1 team played another 0-1 team, the home team there won 4 out of 4 times. In the next box of 2007, in games with 1-0 road teams versus 1-0 home teams, the road team won 3 times and the home team won twice.

Here’s another way to look at this data, broken down with just 1-0 teams records and then another with just 0-1 teams records.

Essentially, what we have here is data over the last six years that says 1-0 teams only go 2-0 slightly more often than they go 0-1 (49-46). And its says that 0-1 teams go 0-2 slightly more often than they go 1-1 (47-50). Basically, little statistical difference.

But when you look at the home/road spits and compare them over the general home/road records over these last six seasons, any apparent statistical edge in the value of records for week two matchups becomes decreases even more.

2002-2007 home team record: 884-651-1 (.576)
2002-2007 road team record: 651-884-1 (.424)

So in percentage point differential, when comparing 1-0 teams to their average standard:
1-0 home teams: -.08
1-0 road teams: +.47
0-1 home teams: -.18
0-1 road teams: -.24

Bottom line to be examined here: home/road in week two is less significant than it normally is, with the exception of 1-0 teams on the road.

With that in mind, here’s who I’m picking:
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-5.5) – Two teams going in opposite direction. This line is way off. I’d take Buffalo at -3, but hey, +5.5 will do.
BUF +5.5

Chicago at Carolina (-3) – After picking them to upset San Diego in my pool last week – and picking them here to cover – I’m going to keep riding the Panthers, my favorite to win the NFC. Carolina’s OLine is the dominating (but will be without their LG) and their new blitz-heavy defense looked real strong against the Chargers.
CAR -3

Green Bay at Detroit (+3) – I’m sure the Lions spent all week working on stopping the run, and I’m almost sure it won’t help in this one. They may get better, but Rodgers has looked good – he had a nice touchdown throw to Driver called back on a lineman downfield penalty on Monday night.
GB -3

Indianapolis at Minnesota (-2) – Tavaris Jackson is going to have a better year than most people think. This is no longer a one dimensional offense. I worry, however, that the Vikes’ defense isn’t as strong as last year’s.
MIN -2

New York Giants at St Louis (-8.5) – This line should be around 11. The Giants have had more time off too.
NYG -8.5

Tennessee at Cincinnati (-1) – It still amazes me that the Bengals found a way to lose last week. Even with a chance to tie late in the fourth, they blew a fourth and 1 on the Ravens’ 25. The VY problems don’t worry me, the Titans are a defense first team, and their defense has looked exceptional for five straight games now. The Bengals might not even score and this is a pickem game? 200+ rushing yards for the Titans. This looks like a game you can put kids through college on.
TEN -1

San Diego at Denver (+1.5) – I usually do better in the late games, but I think this week will be an exception. This game is the only one I like out the late matches, mostly because I think the line reflects a SD loss to Carolina that isn’t as bad as many think.
SD -1.5

A final note: 1-0 road teams this week are a plenty: TEN, BUF, CHI, GB, NYG, NO, ATL, NE, PIT, BAL, PHI.
I’m taking four of them and going against one (Chicago). I also like the Eagles to cover 7 points at Dallas, but not putting that one on the board.

Last week: 4-4