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I got no special angle this week other than this: NFL teams usually talk about their season schedule in a four part series of four games. So for most, this week four is their chance to close out part one the 2008 season. The only real trend I’ll follow is the usual one of going against teams who get a lot of good press (like taking the Bengals over the Giants last week).

Sadly, only three 4pm games in week four, so let’s start with those picks.

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND (+7.5) – Despite being 1-2, the Chargers have scored the fifth most points in the NFL so far this season. They just can’t stop opponents passing on them (284.7 ypg / 31st). This game against Oakland will allow them to regress more towards where they should be on that list. JaMarcus Russell has only attempted 62 passes in three games this year. Last week against the Bears, Brian Griese threw 67 passes. I really didn’t even look at the line here. Whatever it is, I’ll take it. This is a mismatch.
Chargers -7.5

BUFFALO at ST LOUIS (+8) – I wrote last week that the Rams weren’t this bad. I was wrong. Apparently, they are. And Scott Linehan would have been fired already were it not one of the last wishes of Georgia Frontiere that Linehan be given a chance to succeed. Buffalo is one of the youngest teams in the NFL, and that’s the only reason I can think for their near upset at the hands of Oakland last week. The Raiders’ defense is much better than the Rams too. Linehan’s benching of Marc Bulger has seemed to have been an unpopular decision, according to Steven Jackson. This team looks to be in a free fall.
Bills -8

WASHINGTON at DALLAS (+11)- I don’t understand this line. The Skins just beat two very good offensive teams: Arizona and New Orleans. Marion Barber has never run well against the Skins (151 yards in 5 career games). And considering the Skins have played the Giants, the Saints, and the Cards so far their 16th ranked pass defense is probably better than just 16th. Washington has three good DBs (as long as Fred Smoot is evaluated while covering Miles Austin) and three LBs who can run with Jason Witten. Washington will keep it close.
Redskins +11

Other games:

SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS (-5) – The Saints/Broncos game last week seemed like a too obvious over game. It was too obvious, but it came through. This week, we’re going under. The Saints offense won’t be able to put up the kind of yards and points it did against the Broncos. And they are having problems with injuries right now.
Under 48

MINNESOTA at TENNEESSEE (-3) – The Titans defense is probably a little better against the pass than they are against the run. The Vikings defense is probably still a little better against the run than they are against the pass. For each, it starts up front. Tennessee rushes the passer like few other teams and the Vikes have more of a run stuffing group of linemen and linebackers. Since both offenses rely on the run to set up the pass, I’d think that the Vikings have an advantage then. But it’s too close to call.
Under 36

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE (-7)- That the Jags didn’t mop the floor with the Colts last week reinforces my thoughts of how poor their team is this year. The defense isn’t the same, and injuries to the offensive line have left it less reliable. Seven points is too much to give a team with something to prove, going against a team who, in their minds, just proved something. The Jags have the Steelers next week too, so if they’re floating off the Colts game, they may still be looking ahead to the Steelers.
Texans +7

DENVER at KANSAS CITY (+9.5)- Remember when the Chiefs were almost unbeatable at home? That was a long time ago, but the home crowd still shows up in full force. This is just another game that means more for one team than it does for the other. With Damon Huard back, the Chiefs will at least be two dimensionally bad on offense instead of one dimensionally bad. They’ll need to control the clock, like they used to against the Colts. And there just isn’t something right with the Denver pass defense. Sure they’ve played the Saints and the Chargers, so the stats are bad, but they let JaMarcus Russell throw for 180 in the season opener too.
Chiefs +9.5

I’ll also happily take the Steelers at -5.5 at home on Monday night against the Ravens.

Eight picks again, three favs, three dogs, and two unders.

Last week: 4-5 | Overall: 13-11