College Football Bets, Week 2
Let's say you're a Wall Street type and you've spent months and months researching a company that had its IPO last week and you're confident this company has a solid business plan and is going to be profitable.
Still, for some reason the price of the stock drops by 50 percent in the week after the IPO. The fundamentals of the company are the same, but for some reason the rest of the public isn't high on it.
What do you do?
It's not a rhetorical question -- the correct answer is "buy more stock while it is cheap".
Sports betting sometimes offers you the same dilemmas, but the answer is the same -- buy low, sell high.
Last week, Oregon State lost to Stanford and the Vegas oddsmakers are hammering the Beavers, making them a 16.5-point underdog on the road against Penn State. But if you look a little closer, Oregon State dominated Stanford statistically, outgaining the Cardinal by 180 yards and 10 first downs. Give me that kind of statistical domination and even out random events like turnovers and OSU will cover 8 out of 10 times.
Overreaction to surprisingly bad (or strong) performances can offer a lot of value to a sports bettor. Sticking to your guns with your overall assessment of a team's capabilities for at least a couple weeks into a new season can result in some great opportunities to pick up an easy win or two.
Top Games
We're using "Top Games" loosely here since this week's slate of games are even weaker than last week's -- I'm including South Caroilna-Vanderbilt only because it was tough to come up with five top games and it is on national TV.
Oregon State (+16.5) at Penn State -- I admit being scared when a line looks too good to be true and this line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. OSU didn't look that bad against Stanford and was able to move the ball pretty well. Meanwhile, last I checked the PSU offense is still coached by Jay Paterno. Oregon State winning the game wouldn't completely surprise me, even though I think PSU will win by a touchdown or less.
South Carolina (-10) at Vanderbilt -- Giving Vandy 10 points scares me a little bit because they're a live team, but South Carolina is primed for a breakthrough season and don't discount the Steve Spurrier payback factor. It was a crushing loss at home to Vandy last year that derailed the Gamecocks' season.
Cincinnati (+21) at Oklahoma -- This is my first chance to see if I'm right about Cincinnati being underrated and Oklahoma being overrated. The Cincinnati offense will be a good test for OU's defense and should score enough points to keep it relatively close.
West Virginia (-8.5) at East Carolina -- ECU is a very solid team, but this is the time to sell high on the Pirates. Despite getting the Mountaineers at home, ECU should get rolled by a couple of touchdowns.
Miami (FL) (+21.5) at Florida -- I hate betting on the Hurricanes here, but 21.5 points is just too many to give with the talent Miami has on both sides of the ball.
Best Bets
Oregon State (+16.5) at Penn State
Miami (OH) (+14) at Michigan -- Michigan is going to have less trouble moving the ball than it did against Utah, but this won't be a walk in the park. Despite a disappointing performance against Vandy, the Redhawks are one of the better teams in the MAC and should give Michigan a game.
Texas Tech (-10) at Nevada -- This should be a fun, high-scoring game but the Wolfpack defense won't be able to hold serve against Texas Tech.
Utah (-23) vs. UNLV -- UNLV scored a surprising shutout win against the Utes last year, but will get destroyed this year. Utah should have beaten Michigan by three touchdowns -- if it gets the turnovers and sloppy play under control, they'll win this one by 40.
Western Michigan (-6) vs. Northern Illinois -- The oddsmakers are overvaluing NIU's near-win against Minnesota. The Huskies are not a good team and the Broncos are. Add in the fact that this game is in Kalamazoo and it should be an easy win for WMU.
Last Week
7-3 last week, 7-3 for the season.
Top Games
4-1 last week, 4-1 for the season.
Best Bets
3-2 last week, 3-2 for the season.
Actual Bets
2-2, -$26