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This will be my first season in many years without the NFL Ticket, so that means there’s more expendable dollars around to waste at a sportsbook. Inspired by Brian’s college picks, I plan on showing the world how bad I am at this.

Week one NFL matchups are dominated by two governing principles. Teams who have seen few or no changes in their coaching ranks usually prevail over teams that come in with new guys running the show. The second guideline is a similar principle: teams who return a starting quarterback prevail over teams that are debuting a new signal caller.

The first of these principles was on display last night, as the New York Giants held the Redskins to just 12 plays and 21 yards on offense for first 28 minutes of the first half.

The reasoning is simple. For a team like the Redskins, who have introduced a brand new offense and defense, week one is spent tiptoeing into their playbooks and personnel packages. For a team like the Giants, its all polish and extra layers. New York scored points on all four of their first half drives (save for a one play kneel down before the half expired). Washington needed their two minute offense and a soft Giant defense to put points on the board.

As a guide, earlier today, I posted a list of NFL coaches and coordinators and their years of experience in their current role.

So with these week one principles in mind, here’s a look at a few of Sunday’s matchups and where an experienced group will face an unexperienced group.

Detroit at Atlanta (+3)
The Falcons will likely fight with Miami for the league lead in bets against this season, but I’d worry about going against them. I like Matt Ryan, and their new head coach Mike Smith was Jacksonville’s defensive coordinator for 5 years. With Mike Mularkey running the offense, I think the Falcons will at least be competitive. But first game out of the box, maybe not. The Lions are breaking in a new offense too, so this is a weak play. But Detroit’s defense is in their third year with this system and feeds off the other team’s mistakes. I’ll take the Lions and the under (41).

Jacksonville at Tennessee (+3)
An interesting AFC South mathcup. The Jags have a new defensive coordinator and its not just any coordinator, its Greg Williams - a guy who’s definitely using this job to try to get a head coaching shot. The Titans have a new offense, under Mike Heimerdinger, and had a tough preseason. Normally, I go with the team with the experienced offense against the new defense, but this is probably a game I’ll stay away from. If I had to, I’d go with the Jags, but the Titans defense is experienced and has looked as strong as ever. No pick.

New York Jets at Miami (+3)
If this wasn’t Brett Favre’s debut, it would be a walk to the bank pick against the Fish. But Brett’s inexperience with a system so radically different worries me. Both teams will be starting quarterbacks who are playing not only in new systems, but also systems that they’ve only had but a month to learn. It’ll be hot too. Under 36.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (+1.5)
The Ravens offense is brand new, but their defense is experienced. The Bengals, meanwhile, will be starting their 5th straight year with the same offensive coordinator and quarterback. Given the line, and the fact that Baltimore is starting a rookie QB and a new offense, the Bengals are a strong pick here.

Arizona at San Francisco (+2.5)
I think JT O’Sullivan will do well running Martz’s system, but not right out of the gate. The Cards are entering their second year with Ken Wisenhunt’s offense, have a veteran QB, and their defensive coordinator is beginning his fifth year in his role. Arizona had a 31-14 home lead against Martz’s Lions last year before a garbage time score closed the final to 31-21. Take the Cards.

So that’s three road favorites, and two unders. Lovely. In that case, I’ve got my eye on three road dogs: the Panthers +9 at SD, the Bears +9.5 at Indy, and Houston +6.5 at Pittsburgh.