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Last week was a perfect example of why it is so hard to make money betting on pro football over a long period of time. I felt as confident with that group of picks as I’ve felt with almost any whole selection of picks. But still, seeing Minnesota at +2 give away a perfectly fine 15-0 lead and losing by 3 points while also being 0.5 points on the wrong end of that crazy Denver/San Diego finish only makes me want to do this for fun - and not money - even more. I took a 4-2 5-2 day into the books, with both losses coming at a combined 1.5 points away from even.

So as we enter the third week of the season, I’ve been thinking quietly this week about what theme I would be going after with this week’s picks.

As usual, the collective opinion of the swamp guides me.

I’ve had a feeling that we were going to see some pretty strange things in the NFL’s week number three. That was before I looked at the lines. Looking at them only reinforced my intial trepidation.

15 of 16 home teams are favored. And five of those are favored by nine points or more! In total, there’s only one game that features a line under 3, and that’s Cleveland at Baltimore -2.5.

So one thing then is for certain, dogs will undervalued this week and favs are more overvalued than usual.

And bottom line: I think National Jump to Conclusions Week has been moved to week three this season. It seems that people think they know more than they really do about these teams. So buyers beware. And I’ll focus on totals, instead of teams.

Arizona at Washington (-3) - My main question for this game is: how good is Arizona’s defense. They are 2-0, but have beaten only San Fran and Miami. So it’s a hard sell that they are the top 10 defense their stats say they are. Washington’s defense looks like it may be a good one. They held the Saints passing game to just 195 yards last week. Special teams have hurt the Skins so far though, and the Cards are solid there. I’m leaning towards Washington winning this game, but I think the safer play is assuming Washington will be competitive and Arizona’s offense is too good to be held under 17 points.
Over 42.5

Cincinnati at New York Giants (-13) - The Bengals have faced two of the best defenses in the game their first two weeks. And as bad as their run blocking has been, Palmer has only been sacked three times (which speaks more highly of Palmer than it does the line blocking). I think this’ll be a low scoring game, which means Cincy should keep it close. And don’t forget that the Rams had closed their game last week to 20-13 with 10 minutes remaining before the Giants broke it open.
Bengals +13

Houston at Tennesee (-4.5) - The Texans’ offense is good enough to score points on Tennessee and the Texans’ defense is bad enough to allow the Titans to score.
6 point tease Texans with the over: +10.5/o33

Oakland at Buffalo (-9.5) - Riding the hot hand here. The Raiders had 55 yards passing in their win last week. The Bills are still being undervalued. I’ll be surprised if Oakland scores more than 7. This is the one pick i really like this week. Although its far from the TEN over CIN lock I had last week.
Bills -9.5

New Orleans at Denver (-5.5) - Two great offensive minds going against each other. I hesitated on taking this game because of the Colston injury, but if you look at the yards the Broncos have given up to backs and tight ends this season, you’ll see the potential for a big day for Shockey and Bush. Plus, Denver’s offense could score 50 against the Saints on their own. I also worry this pick may be too obvious. Oh well.
Over 51

St. Louis at Seattle (-9.5) - The Rams are bad, but they aren’t this bad. The Rams have also faced two of the best NFC teams, while Seattle is far from that. I don’t see how or why anyone would take the Seahawks as this big of a favorite against a team that has a ton of experience in Qwest field.
Rams +9.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-5) - The Jags are another team who have had the misfortune of facing two of the better defenses so far this season. So I figure their offense will get to at least 20 points against the Colts. And Manning showed last week he can still do things on his own.
6 point tease Jags with the over: +11/o35.5

Also taking the Eagles -3 and the Jets +9.

Last week: 4-2 5-2 | Overall: 9-6

UPDATE: somehow i miss counted my record last week. i was 5-2. yippee.