Sportsfrog.com

It’s one of the hazards of betting on sports — sometimes even when you’re right, you’re wrong.

Case in point — two games last week. I had thought Louisville -3.5 at home should be a pretty easy cover and after a slow start the Cardinals appeared ready to roll. Plus, UConn had lost its starting quarterback. But after Louisville starting QB Hunter Cantwell got hurt the Cardinals went in the tank and lost the game outright despite outgaining UConn by more than 200 yards. If Cantwell doesn’t get hurt, I think UL wins by a couple of touchdowns, but again — that’s life.

Also last week I LOVED Ohio State giving 18 points to Minnesota. Again, at home with a healthy Beanie Wells back I figured the Buckeyes to roll and they did, running up a four touchdown lead. Unfortunately, the third stringers on OSU’s defense gave up two late touchdowns while the offense ran out the clock and another win had been turned into a loss.

I illustrate these points not to complain, but merely to point out that the razor thin line between a good play and a bad play is sometimes a strange bounce. (Which I also benefited from last week by betting Southern Cal at -14 in the second half against Oregon State. The botched PAT from OSU which would have give the Beavers a 28-14 lead ended up giving me a win after USC raced down and scored a meaningless touchdown late in the game to make the score 21-6 for the second half. The gambling gods giveth and they taketh away.

Top Games
Oregon State (+11.5) at Utah — I’ve been burned twice this year betting on the Beavers, but they rewarded my preseason evaluation of them with last week’s upset. Now the question is — can they build on the win against a very good Utah team? I think they can. At the least, they should be able to keep it a close game.

Vanderbilt (+4.5) vs. Auburn — OK, I’m on the Commodore bandwagon. Given the struggles of the Tiger offense, it seems foolhardy to give 4.5 points to a very underrated Vanderbilt team at home.

Ohio State (-2) at Wisconsin — These are the kinds of games that Ohio State seldom loses. Give the Buckeyes credit — they flail about in big games outside the Big Ten, but take care of business in the conference. Michigan exposed some serious issues with Badgers.

Southern Cal (-18) vs. Oregon — This is a ridiculous number, but a monster win is precisely the MO for USC after embarrassing losses the last few seasons.

Missouri (-10.5) at Nebraska — If you found a time machine and went back to 1998, folks back there would have locked you in an insane asylum if you suggested that in ten years Nebraska would be a double digit underdog at home to Missouri. I don’t have to research this, I’m fairly confident Missouri has NEVER been a double digit favorite over the Cornhuskers in Lincoln. What’s more is the Tigers should cover this number with ease.

Best Bets
Pittsburgh (+13) at South Florida — Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pittsburgh pull off an upset here. USF’s offense has sputtered at times this season and could have trouble getting in gear against an underrated Pitt team. I don’t think an upset is likely — Pitt keeping the number in single digits is however.

BYU (-29.5) at Utah State — I’ve done well betting against Utah State this year — apparently the oddsmakers don’t yet realize this is possibly the worst FBS team. If the Cougars can hang 59 on UCLA, another 50+ point performance against the Aggies is no problem. Sadly, the Cougars have an incentive to run up the score as well since they’re going to be depending on the pollsters if they’re to have a chance at a spot in the national title game.

Illinois (+2.5) at Michigan — As much as it pains me to say it, last week’s upset against Wisconsin was a bit of a mirage — this Michigan team still has major, major issues on offense and hasn’t looked as good as it needs to on defense either. The Illini have struggled mightily as well this season, but they should be able to win this game.

Ball State (-7) at Toledo — Betting on the MAC is tricky because there is so much parity in the conference. Rarely is taking a touchdown favorite to cover on the road a good idea, but Ball State has been absolutely crushing all season and there’s no reason to think Toledo will be able to slow it down.

Kansas (-12) at Iowa State — It says here Kansas and Todd Reesing are due for a huge offensive performance and I think it is going to happen this week.

Bonus Pick!
Rice at Tulsa (OVER 80) — I couldn’t let this game go unmentioned since this is the highest over/under I’ve ever seen for a college football game. (I remember the Boise State-Louisville Liberty Bowl a few years back was 79 — and that game still went over.). These teams combine to score 95 points a game and 1,000 yards of total offense and scored 91 last year (a 48-43 Tulsa win). Short of some kind of crazy weather that might bog down these spread offenses, this should climb over 80 as well.

Last Week

3-6-1 last week, 23-24-3 overall.

Top Games

2-2-1 last week, 12-11-2 overall

Best Bets

1-4 last week, 11-13-1 overall

Actual Bets

1-2 last week, 8-8-1 overall, -$36