Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
They won the NBA championship.

The bad news from last season:
See above.

The revolving door:
IN: G J.R. Giddens, F Darius Miles, C Patrick O’Bryant, G/F Bill Walker
OUT: F James Posey

Team overview:
Just about everything went right for the Celtics last year. The team engineered two separate trades to acquire Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Garnett’s arrival shifted the focus of the team to a concentrated effort on defense, which paid off as the team was tops in field goal percentage allowed, second in points allowed, and fourth in turnovers created. The result was a team that rolled to 66 wins, the top seed in the East, and an NBA championship in six games over the Lakers.

Paul Pierce was the Finals MVP and leader of the team along with Garnett. Pierce is still the number one option on the offensive end for this team, even though he posted his lowest points per game average since his second year in the league. Kevin Garnett was Mr. Everything for the Celtics, providing leadership, intensity, and a defensive backbone while playing reduced minutes. In fact, Garnett averaged his fewest minutes per game since his rookie season. His numbers slid accordingly, not only due to the reduced minutes, but because Garnett had a lot more help than what he was accustomed to in Minnesota. Manning the middle is Kendrick Perkins. While still very young (he will turn 24 early this season), he needs to cut down on his fouls. His fouls-per-40-minute average is gradually coming down, but still was at 5.06, perhaps remaining the biggest limitation to his success.

Rajon Rondo is the developing point guard whose biggest contributions come on the defensive end. Rondo’s limited offensive game really is not an issue with the current roster. Ray Allen, Garnett, and Pierce can all handle the ball adequately and there are enough shooters around Rondo to hide his poor stroke. Allen had a hit-or-miss postseason, but is still a premier outside shooter, having led the team 180 three-pointers, good enough for fifth in the league.

The loss of James Posey to the Hornets is likely to be a bigger loss than losing “just a sixth man.” Posey enabled the Celtics to go small with Garnett shifting to center and creating a wide open attack with three or four players on the floor able to hit from the perimeter. There is no true small forward on the roster who is ready to back up Pierce unless Darius Miles can come back from his microfracture surgery, which does not look likely. Tony Allen will back up Ray Allen at the two and Eddie House will play a combo guard role off the bench. Sam Cassell is back for one more lap, but should not play a significant role due to his penchant for injuries and defensive shortcomings. Leon Powe and Glen “Big Baby” Davis combine for a strong, but undersized frontcourt duo who can hold their own on the boards and on the low block. Powe in particular had very impressive per-40-minute rates (22.0 points and 11.2 rebounds) and should get an expanded role this season. A traditional post-up center who did not fit in Don Nelson’s freestyle offensive system, Patrick O’Bryant has a better chance of contributing in Boston than in his previous stop with the Warriors.

Fantasy note:
Paul Pierce has a strong chance at having an uptick in his stats this year, primarily because he could get additional minutes without a strong bench player behind him. He averaged 19.6 points per game last year, but could creep back up into the 21-22 point range, as well as a boost to six rebounds, five assists, two threes, and 1.5 steals per game.

Best case scenario:
Championship banner #18 is hung in October 2009. They won’t win 66 games again and probably will not win 60 because of an improved Eastern Conference, especially the Atlantic Division, but they will still be a dominant force in the NBA.

Worst case scenario:
Barring multiple serious injuries, the Celtics’ floor for this season is a top-four seed in the East and a second-round exit from the playoffs. Toronto and Philadelphia are better this season with the additions of Jermaine O’Neal and Elton Brand, respectively, but still are not in the class of the Celtics. Defense is the calling card for Boston, so all they need is to put forth effort to be competitive (or significantly better) on a nightly basis and it is very difficult to imagine a team with Kevin Garnett as its emotional center becoming complacent.