Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James. The superstar averaged 30.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game. The Cavaliers slid back to only 45 wins after notching 50 in each of the two previous campaigns, but forced the Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Zydrunas Ilgauskas gave Cleveland another solid season, tallying 14.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per night. Delonte West came over in a monstrous trade that overhauled the roster right before the trade deadline and gave the team a hard-nosed backcourt player to help ease the load on James. Joe Smith also came over in that swap and was a solid bench contributor as part of a four-man frontcourt rotation down the stretch.

The bad news from last season:
The team acquired Ben Wallace in that major trade and now is stuck under the $28.5 million he is owed over the next two seasons (he’s the highest-paid Cavalier this season, earning about 90K more than LeBron). Wallace gave the Cavs very little last year, particularly in the postseason, as did Wally Szczerbiak, who also came over at the same time. Szczerbiak shot under 36 percent as a Cav in the regular season and under 38 percent in the postseason. Anderson Varejao missed almost half the season and Daniel Gibson missed almost a third of it.

The revolving door:
IN: F J.J. Hickson, F Darnell Jackson, G Mo Wiliams
OUT: G Damon Jones, F Joe Smith

Team overview:
This team starts and ends with James. With him, they can defeat anyone on any given night, and without him, they are possibly not a 30-win team. As a result, the Cavaliers are desperately looking for the right group to surround James. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has been by James’ side throughout his professional career. The big man played in “only” 73 games last season, the lowest mark of the last six years, and had a resurgent year, pushing his scoring up and grabbing a career high in rebounds per game. Ben Wallace is likely to start next to Ilgauskas, but will probably only play around 25 minutes per game, just like he did following last season’s trade. Free agent Lorenzen Wright joins Anderson Varejao as a strong defensive tandem coming off the bench. The two are not likely to combine for ten points per game, but they will give opposing big men fits on the defense end of the court. Minutes will be scarce for the two first-round big men that the Cavaliers brought in – J.J. Hickson from North Carolina State and Darnell Jackson from Kansas.

The Cavaliers have a crowded backcourt again, but this time, it is headlined by a new face. Mo Williams, acquired from Milwaukee over the summer, will start somewhere in the backcourt. If Williams were three to four inches taller, he’d be a solid shooting guard, but instead, he comes over from the Bucks with a (well-deserved) reputation as a shoot-first point guard. In any case, Williams is the most offensively proficient guard on the roster, scoring over 17 points per game each of the last two seasons, keyed by connecting on 48 percent of his shots last year and draining 89 threes while missing over a month of action. Delonte West could join Williams in the backcourt or come off the bench as a combo guard. Should either Wally Szczerbiak or Aleksandar (Sasha) Pavlovic earn a starting spot, Williams slides to the point. West is a solid contributor at either spot while not being great at either one, so he may be the reserve point guard. Szczerbiak and Pavlovic bring the same skills to the floor – outside shooting and defensive indifference. One of them will also likely get the few minutes James does not play. Daniel Gibson gives the Cavaliers a fifth three-point shooter who must be respected while on the floor. His lack of size and poor ballhandling skills will keep him in a minute crunch at the two.

Fantasy note:
It will be interesting to see how Mo Williams’ statistics are affected by not having the ball in his hands as much as he did in Milwaukee. His scoring should take a hit, as James and Ilgauskas should both get ample looks. His production in assists could go either direction, though. They could go up due to Ilgauskas in the post and James from everywhere, but they could also slide off with James and West available to handle the ball. Temper your expectations for him.

Best case scenario:
This one is easy, but I’ll make it a little more complicated. The Cavaliers find a taker for Szczerbiak’s contract, acquiring a young veteran who complements Ilgauskas up front. This addition keys a Cavalier run to the title as James wins his first MVP award.

Worst case scenario:
I try to avoid using injuries here, as they can destroy any team’s hopes. With that caveat, the worst case is that James is run down from his Olympic experience and slides. The addition of Williams does not help, but the team earns a playoff spot and gets bounced in the first round.