Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
The team won 51 games in an ultra-competitive Western Conference. Dirk Nowitzki’s scoring went down in the regular season, but that may be due to the talented cast around him, including Josh Howard, who took another small step forward and finished a hair under 20 points per game. Nowitzki stepped up his game in the postseason, averaging 26.8 points and 12 rebounds per contest. Jason Kidd got a burst following the trade that brought him to Big D. Brandon Bass showed some potential as a banger down low.

The bad news from last season:
Those 51 wins were only good enough for the seventh seed in the West and the Mavericks were escorted into the offseason by the Hornets in the first round, the second consecutive season that ended that early, seemingly closing the Mavericks’ window of opportunity in spite of the trade for Kidd. The Kidd trade also cost Dallas a major part of their young talent, as Devin Harris went to the Nets as the key component of the swap. Chris Paul also shredded the future first ballot Hall-of-Famer in that playoff series, posting 24.6 points, 12.0 assists, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game and closing out the series with a 24-point, 15-assist, 11-rebound triple-double. Kidd was not the only Maverick who had a tough postseason, as Josh Howard also shriveled up, scoring 12.6 points per game on 29.2 percent shooting.

The revolving door:
IN: C DeSagana Diop, G Gerald Green
OUT: F Malik Allen, G Tyronn Lue

Team overview:
The franchise’s optimism came crashing down to earth in the postseason. Many people believed that the 16-13 record the Mavericks posted down the stretch in games where Jason Kidd played was just an adjustment period as the team could never truly find its stride (a five-game win streak was sandwiched between two three-game skids), but New Orleans dismantled the Mavs in five games as Kidd showed his age. Kidd played well after the trade, in particular by resurrecting his shooting percentage, but it remains to be seen how he holds up over a full season. Eddie Jones will likely join Kidd in the starting lineup, but not play traditional starter’s minutes, mostly due to the quality of the backcourt reserves who come off the bench. Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse combined to average over 26 points per game in mostly bench roles. Terry is an efficient outside shooter who led the Mavericks with 136 threes and also led them by draining 37.5 percent from deep. Stackhouse remains a slasher who can get to the bucket with the best of them and has something to prove after missing 24 games last season.

The starting forwards are the top players on the team. Dirk Nowitzki remains the team’s primary offensive threat even though his 23.6 points per game was his lowest scoring average in the last four seasons. The question is if the slide in his numbers is due to an improved supporting cast or if the minutes he has logged in his career (at least 35.6 minutes per game and 76 games in each of the last nine seasons) are catching up to him. Josh Howard is the improving small forward who flanks Nowitzki. Howard, who had a poor postseason and exhibited even worse judgment this off-season, based on his statements about his marijuana smoking habits and his feelings about the national anthem, would be well-served to make the fans forget about those missteps by raising his scoring average for the sixth straight season. Devean George and youngster Brandon Bass will likely handle the minutes off the bench at the forward spots. George provides a solid veteran defender while Bass is a promising young power forward who averaged close to 17 points and nine rebounds per 40 minutes last season. Erick Dampier and the returned DeSagana Diop will handle the pivot. The two should combine to provide a double-double on a nightly basis.

Fantasy note:
Jason Terry may be worth grabbing a round earlier than you would normally think. He has been an excellent shooter since coming over to the Mavericks (47.9 percent from the floor, 41.0 percent from three, 143 triples per season), but with Kidd in front of him, you have to think there is a decent chance of injury getting Terry into the starting lineup, as least for a short while. Kidd has played 80 games in each of the last three seasons, but his summer at the Olympics (and the 42,593 NBA minutes he has amassed) may catch up to him.

Best case scenario:
Nowitzki has a resurgence and Rick Carlisle is a breath of fresh air. The team wins 50 games for the ninth straight season and pulls off a first round upset in the playoffs before getting bounced.

Worst case scenario:
The team’s roster does not mesh with Rick Carlisle’s preferred defensive style. The team realizes its collective age (all primary contributors, save for Howard, are at least 30 years old). Jason Kidd breaks down after an illustrious career and a summer of international ball. Not only does the team miss the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons, but they barely finish at .500.