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Lines are always based on public perception first, matchups second. Look no further than last week’s ridiculous 11 point spread in the Washington v Dallas game for proof of that.

So this week five in the NFL, we approach some more ‘conventional wisdom’ with skepticism. Statistics show that, on the whole, NFL teams coming out of a bye week hold no statistical edge. But some franchises, few actually, have a history of performance that should be noted. That’s great, and somewhat meaningless to me.

Six teams are playing this week after coming off their bye week. With that understood, lines will be skewed towards those post bye week teams.

The six teams coming off a bye are: Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, New York Giants, Seattle.

One team of note who’s been bad coming out of their bye is Seattle. The Seahawks are 5-13 SU and 4-14 ATS since 1992 when playing after a bye week. And since they’ve had the same head coach for 10 years now, that is some statistically relevant information. BUt I’ll be staying away from their game against the Giants this week.

CHICAGO at DETROIT (+3.5) – In the first halves of their first three games this season, the Detroit Lions have been outscored 3-21, 3-21, and 14-21. That’s a combined score of 20-63. In those first quarters, they’ve been shut out so far this season and have surrendered 35 points. And since the Bears are the kind of team that historically thrives on playing with the lead, I’d have to take Chicago here. But the Bears’ defense is doing something interesting this season: they are stout against the run and weak against the pass. Add in to that, the Bears will certainly be without their top pass rusher Tommie Harris (suspended), and may be without CBs Nate Vasher and Charles Tillman. So I’m waiting for the gameday injury report, and if Vasher and Tillman are out, I’m on the Lions.

Update to come.
Vasher is out, Tillman is in. I’ll take the Lions +3.

INDY at HOUSTON (+3) – I’m not say the Texans are the ‘06 Saints, but if you remember the emotion New Orleans played with in their first game back to the Superdome after Katrina, it’ll be hard to say the Texans and their fans aren’t going to be geared up for this one. Ike may not have had the press coverage that Katrina did, but it was a devastating storm for southeast Texas. Houston’s football team finally turned the corner last week against the Jags, and should be able to run on the Colts – thus providing balance to their offense. This one is for TT.

Texans +3

SAN DIEGO at MIAMI (+6.5) -The Chargers welcome back ILB Stephen Cooper in time to boost their run defense and C Nick Hardwick to boost their run offense against the Fish.

Chargers -6.5

NEW ENGLAND at SAN FRANCISCO (+3) -The Niners played a lot of nickel defense last week against the Saints. It didn’t work much – Brees threw for over 360 yards – but maybe they’ve had time to work out all their breakdowns. New England’s point totals this year: 17, 19, and 13. So why are they favored on the road?

49ers +3

ATLANTA at GREEN BAY (NL) – Obviously waiting to see what happens with Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers’ loss of Cullen Jenkins is huge. The Falcons should be able to move the ball on offense against the depleted Packers defense. If Matt Flynn has to start, it could be ugly.

Update to come on this one as well.
Rodgers is in. I’ll pass.

TAMPA BAY at DENVER (-3) – FaVored one week on the road by almost 10, and then only 3 the next week at home? The Bucs aren’t a good road team.

Broncos -3

Other notes:
On Monday, I was ready to jump on whomever was playing the Bills this week. They are past due for a loss. I like them, but the way they’ve played against the Rams and Raiders is concerning. Luckily for Buffalo, they get the Boldin-less cards this week. So while I think an upset here is possible, I’m going to hold out until after the Bills take their week six bye.

The other team I’ve taken almost every week besides the Bills is the Panthers. But I’ll have to lay off them this week too. While the Chiefs probably won’t cover 9.5 at Carolina, with the injuries the Panthers have on their OLine I just wouldn’t touch this game. KC showed last week that they can still play a little defense. So I’ll just take my money from the Chiefs win last week, say thanks, and move on.

I almost jumped on the Steelers and the points they are getting. The Jags lack of pass rush should allow Ben Burger to protect his shoulder. And I’m not concerned about Mewelde Moore running the ball. He’s serviceable.

Last week: 5-2-1 | Overall: 18-13-1