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2008 Frog NBA Preview - Golden State

NBA

by DSafetyGuy on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 at 12:58pm

The good news from last season:
The Warriors won 48 games last year, the most wins they amassed since the 1993-1994 season. Their uptempo style led to Golden State leading the league in points scored at 111.0 per game. How uptempo were the Warriors last year? Well, they also led the league in field goal attempts and three-point field goal attempts while finishing atop the league in turnover differential and second in steals, both resulting from their desire to get the ball back as soon as possible. The Warriors also boasted three players who scored more than 20 points per game in Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, and Stephen Jackson.

The bad news from last season:
Unfortunately, the Warriors’ defense was not nearly as proficient as their offense, finishing last in points allowed, but more importantly 26th in field goal percentage allowed. As a result, the Warriors fell a couple games shy of the playoffs, setting an NBA record for the best record while playing golf in mid-April. The Chris Webber acquisition did next-to-nothing for them, as well.

The revolving door:
IN: F Corey Maggette, F Anthony Randolph, F-C Ronny Turiaf, G Marcus Williams
OUT: F Matt Barnes, G Baron Davis, C Patrick O’Bryant, F Mickael Pietrus


Team overview:
Not only did the front office do major reconstructive surgery on the team, but Monta Ellis had to get surgery, as well. Ellis injured his ankle in a moped accident and will miss at least the first two months of the season. As a result, the Warriors need to replace 44 points a game from their starting backcourt, at least for the first couple months of the season. Marcus Williams will get the first crack at the point guard spot. The former Net disappointed in his first two years in the league, shooting 39 percent and carding an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.84-to-1. That does not bode well for him running the show by the Bay. Stephen Jackson, the heart of the team, will come back at the two guard and be flanked by newcomer Corey Maggette at small forward. Jackson tallied career highs of 20.1 points and 4.1 assists per game, as well as 182 three-pointers, the fourth-highest total in the league. With Ellis’ injury, Jackson will likely carry some of the playmaking duties and word coming out of camp is that he may play the point guard spot. Maggette averaged 22.1 points per game last year with the Clippers, in part due to making a career-high 38.4 percent of his threes. His newfound proficiency should serve him well in Golden State. Kelenna Azubuike and Marco Belinelli should support the two ironmen at the swingmen spots. Azubuike was a solid contributor as an occasional starter in his first major opportunity in the NBA. Belinelli never paid off on the promise he showed in the summer league and preseason prior to his rookie season, falling out of the rotation early in the season. He will need a strong start to keep his place in the rotation when Ellis is healthy.

Al Harrington should return to the starting lineup, joining Andris Biedrins up front. Harrington posted numbers similar to most of his career, but needs to get his rebounding (5.4 per game last season) more in line with his three-point shooting (153 bombs) to really help the team and his frontcourt partner. Biedrins, who will turn 23 just before the end of this coming season, fell just shy of averaging a double-double on the season last year, piling up 10.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. The Latvian also led the NBA in field goal percentage, connecting on 62.6 percent of his shots, and was third in rebounds per minute. Now, if only he can clear the 30-minute per game level. Ronny Turiaf, who was lured away from the Lakers in the offseason, should provide another live body off the bench. Turiaf will also fill a role as a defensive deterrent around the rim, as he was fifth in the NBA in blocks per minute. As a sometime starter in Los Angeles, Turiaf averaged 10.5 points and 1.9 blocks per game in under 30 minutes per night, so there is potential there. Brandan Wright will be counted on for a positive contribution as a sophomore in the league.

Fantasy note:
With Ellis out, then getting back into game shape for a large portion of the season, several Warriors should be worth drafting, then selling high early on. Be wary of Stephen Jackson’s field goal percentage, though, as it will hurt. One Warrior to hang on to all season, though, is Biedrins. He should get a bump to about 33 minutes per game, so he has the chance to hang around 12-14 points, 12 rebounds, and two blocks per game along with his excellent field goal shooting. He is certainly capable of holding down a #2 center spot, maybe even a #1 center role.

Best case scenario:
Jackson handles the additional playmaking duties well (I can’t see Williams lasting in the starting lineup) and Ellis is ready to go as soon as he comes back. Maggette makes a seamless transition to the Bay Area and Biedrins becomes a top-five center in the West. They still miss the playoffs, winning 43 games.

Worst case scenario:
Ellis has complications coming back from his injury, Williams goes completely in the tank, and Don Nelson gripes about wanting to step down in midseason. The defense remains completely porous and the offense loses its magic without Baron Davis. The team is exciting, but ends up mustering only 28 wins.