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When I’m compiling my list for the week of the lines I like, I just note as many games as possible where the lines look a little out of whack and then try to narrow that list down to the five games which comprise my best bets. Sometimes I have a hard time struggling to find five games and am kind of stabbing in the dark a little bit to fill out the list.

So imagine my surprise this week when my initial list of best bets was 11 games. I don’t know if it just a strange week, if I’m getting a stronger feeling about certain teams or if I’m overconfident because of my 9-2 mark last week, but I had a hard time pairing the list down to five. Theoretically this is the time of year when the oddsmakers should be getting a lot more accurate at setting their lines.

Also unusual was how many games had big changes in their lines from the opening. I counted five games that moved four or more points including a jump from an opening line of 20 to 28.5 in the USC-Arizona State contest.

As I noted before, I had an especially strong performance last week, but unfortunately bet real money on the only two games I lost. Such is life.

Top Games

Texas vs. Oklahoma (-6.5) — Texas is still a bit of an unknown quantity, but Oklahoma has performed well in underrated non-conference contests against TCU and Cincinnati. Those two wins might be underwhelming to casual college football fans, but those in the know realize OU has played some decent teams and been dominant doing it.

Oklahoma State (+14) at Missouri – Speaking of poor non-conference schedules, Missouri gets what looks to be its first real test of the season (sorry, you don’t count Nebraska). This line opened at 10 and has since been bet up to -14. I think the Cowboys are underrated and could keep this game close, especially since the Missouri offense is due for an off-night.

LSU (+6) at Florida – I don’t think very highly of Florida this season — something just looks off about the Gators, even before their upset loss to Ole Miss. Given this game is in Gainesville, I understand Florida being the favorite, but I like LSU to keep it close.

Penn State (-5.5) at Wisconsin — I’m on the PSU bandwagon, but this game scares me a bit. Wisconsin is tough to beat at home, especially at night. Ohio State barely was able to pull off a win last weekend. So while I should probably take the points, I still can’t help but thinking PSU’s offense might be able to have more success against the Badgers than even Ohio State did.

Wake Forest (-2.5) vs. Clemson — This game is possibly no less than a referendum on the Tommy Bowden era. On national television against a resurgent Wake Forest team, this is the kind of game Bowden has managed to pull out enough times to keep his job. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it happen again, but Clemson just does not look very good and Wake Forest is extremely well-coached and likely prepared for the Tigers.

Best Bets

Tulsa (-25) at SMU — Most people are catching on to the high-powered Golden Hurricane offense, so I’m surprised this number is as low as it is. Tulsa should be able to pick its number and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it in the 60s.

Western Michigan (+1.5) at Buffalo — The MAC East hasn’t managed to beat an opponent from the West Division yet this season and the Bulls don’t figure to be the first. Western’s offense is humming.

Michigan State (-1.5) at Northwestern — This is the kind of game where Michigan State has imploded in the past. In fact, MSU has a history of playing weird games against Northwestern, including the largest comeback in NCAA history a few years ago. I think this is a very mentally strong Spartan team this year playing against a Wildcats team that has played over its head all season.

Middle Tennessee (+2) at Florida International — It’s strange to see the Panthers a favorite over anyone, especially a very solid MTSU team. FIU is on the upswing as proven by wins over Toledo and North Texas, but MTSU is much better than either of those teams.

Miami (Ohio) (+10.5) at Northern Illinois — Before the season, Miami might have been favored by this number against NIU, but the Redhawks have not lived up to expectations. Still, they’ve played a tough schedule and figure to get back on track eventually. This is too big a number to leave alone, even if NIU is the surprise story in the MAC this year.

Last Week

9-2 last week, 32-26-3 overall.

Top Games

5-0 last week, 17-11-2 overall

Best Bets

3-2 last week, 14-15-1 overall

Actual Bets

2-2 last week, 9-10-1 overall, -$45