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The good news from last season:
The team hung in until late in the season for a playoff spot, winning 36 games last year. The win total was an improvement of one game over the previous season, which was a nice feat considering the team was in the process of being handed over to a new, younger core under a new coach. The top two players on the squad, Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy, both had career years under Jim O’Brien. The team parted ways with Jermaine O’Neal in the offseason as they continued to overhaul the roster and build around Granger. Sadly, that is about it.

The bad news from last season:
When O’Neal was still around, he was hurt, which caused him to miss 40 games and play below his normal lofty standards when he was available, averaging 13.6 points and 6.7 rebounds, making his season his worst since his first as a Pacer. Jamaal Tinsley missed half of the season, as well, and Travis Diener was not ready to steer the ship. (Some would say that Tinsley’s injury would be a good thing.) Injuries did more than their part to ruin the season. All in all, 13 different players started games for Indiana, a staggering number when Granger made 80 starts and Dunleavy 82.

The revolving door:
IN: G T.J. Ford, C Roy Hibbert, G Jarrett Jack, C Rasho Nesterovic, G Brandon Rush
OUT: F Ike Diogu, F-C Jermaine O’Neal, G Kareem Rush

Team overview:
There is likely more good news in the revolving door, as reports have surfaced saying that, one way or another, Jamaal Tinsley will not be suiting up for the Pacers this season. He truly is expendable, as imports T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack are both capable of starting for the team. Ford, who has started 222 of his 253 games in four seasons, averaged over 10 assists-per-40-minutes and had an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.07-to-1 last season. Unfortunately, he still can’t hit outside shots (29.4 percent last year, 31.0 percent career). Jack is slightly better at shooting from deep, but lost his starting job in Portland last season. Jack’s size and toughness may allow him to play some minutes at the two, as well. Mike Dunleavy will be the starting two-guard after averaging 19.1 points per game on the strength of 47.6 shooting from the field, 42.4 percent from deep (12th in the NBA), and making 165 treys. Finally over his knee issues, Marquis Daniels will get minutes backing up both the two and the three and Brandon Rush, a rookie from Kansas, will get some opportunities at the two, as well.

With O’Neal no longer around, Danny Granger looks to take the next step as the official leader of this team. A stat-sheet stuffer, Granger averaged 19.6 points, over two threes, a steal, and a block per game in his third season. Provided he can keep his nose clean and focus on basketball, Shawne Williams will have the opportunity to back up Granger, but will have to beat out Daniels, as well. Perhaps being on his last chance with Pacers’ management will make him realize how perilously close he is to being out of the league. The power forward and center spots will likely be manned by Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster. Murphy is a tough rebounder on defense, but otherwise a non-contributor on that end, while preferring to remain outside and hoist jump shots (94 threes on a 39.8 percent success rate). Foster is a coach’s dream, earning his time on the floor by maxing out his effort on defense and the boards, in particular the offensive glass, where he ranked fifth in the league in offensive rebounds per game and first in offensive rebounds per minute. The big man has also tallied more rebounds than points in each of his last eight seasons. Austin Croshere has a fairly similar game to Murphy, providing rebounding and perimeter shooting, so there is not much variation when he comes off the bench. Rasho Nesterovic looks to be the backup center, but rookie Roy Hibbert will get some opportunities to get his feet wet in the pivot, as well. Nesterovic is in the last year of his contract, while the first-rounder from Georgetown is hoped to be the center of the future in Indy.

Fantasy note:
As hinted at above, Danny Granger is sneaky good. Two threes, a steal, a block, six rebounds, and twenty points a game would be matching his production from last year. With Jermaine O’Neal in the Pacers’ rear view mirror, Granger should get even more looks to cash in on his good shooting (44.6 percent from the floor, 85.2 percent from the stripe). There is no reason for him not to bump his scoring up to 23 points per game, especially if he starts to drive more to get to the line for easy points.

Best case scenario:
Young players develop, including Granger as a go-to player and Hibbert in the pivot. A contender looking for a backup big man deals for Nesterovic, sending a developmental player and a pick back in return for his expiring deal. Travis Diener could also develop to the point that Jarrett Jack could get shipped out for a pick (but this is a reach). All that said, the Pacers will be putting the basketballs in the bags for the summer in April. Getting to 36 wins again is their ceiling.

Worst case scenario:
Granger is not quite ready for prime time, T.J. Ford gets injured, and things spiral out of control. Regardless of what happens, Jim O’Brien’s job is pretty safe. Things will be bad, but the Pacers will still win a minimum of 25 contests