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I don’t want to pretend last week didn’t happen, I just wish it didn’t. Most of the data I had last week was solid, I just choose to go against it poorly (on Detroit) and stayed away from it poorly (on Seattle). At least I was re-reminded about how to pick midseason games in the NFL: go with your early week instinct. Last week, Atlanta and against the Bills was the way to go and I backed off at the last minute. Never, ever, leave your wingman. I didn’t have a good feeling about those games. Luckily, I feel real good about this week.

NFL Week 6, we don’t have a lot of great bye week data to rely on – even though the Jets have a strong post-bye week history – so we’re going to have to do this one by instinct again.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO (+5) – The 49ers apparently have zero coverage skills at the safety position. They’ve given up too many deep balls in recent weeks and, oh yeah, their only two wins have been against the Lions and the Seahawks. The Eagles, meanwhile, have played some of the best in the NFL and have been competitive. With all the talk this week about Philly’s offense fizzling out after the first couple of drives against the Redskins, the Eagles will be looking to stop a two game losing streak going into their bye. And if that doesn’t do it for you, know that the 49ers offense has given up the most sacks so far (20) and the Eagles defense has recorded the most sacks (18).

Eagles -5

JACKSONVILLE at DENVER (-3.5) – The Jags have narrowly lost to Tennessee, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh so far this season. All three of those teams are leading their divisions in the AFC. The Broncos, meanwhile, seem to be struggling a bit. Injuries are impacting their offense, and their defense has resorted to a bend but don’t break style – probably because they have no pass rush. Thanks in large part to John Henderson’s presence in the middle, the Jags strong front four always plays zone blocking run teams well.

Jags +3.5

ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON (-13.5) – Forget matchups, this is just one of those games. No team is lower right now than the Rams. No team is higher right now than the Skins. After last week, before I saw the week 6 schedule, I considering taking STL and going against WAS. Then I saw they were playing each other. After five games, Washington has already played three division games – all on the road. They won 2 of those 3, and have won their last 4 overall. Now they’ve got STL, CLE and DET coming up on their schedule. If their heads are in this one – with a first year head coach (Zorn) at the helm – and they blow out the Rams, I’ll be mightily, mightily surprised.

Rams +13.5

CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (-1) – I’m not sold on this Bucs team. If they were any good, they would have beaten the vulnerable Broncos last week. Jake Delhomme always plays well vs Tampa (7-1 record) and in Tampa (4-0). And the Bucs haven’t seen this revamped Panthers defense. Tampa is a big, slow offense and Carolina is a big, fast defense.

Panthers -1

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS (-4) – Everyone’s talking about how the Colts could easily be 0-4. But they’re not. Some see it half-full, some half-empty. I’m on the half-empty side. Football Outsiders’ week five DVOA ratings have the Ravens at #2 and the Colts at #24. The Ravens have lost two in a row, each by three points. The line on this is 4. I don’t get it.

Ravens +4

CHICAGO at ATLANTA (+3) – The Bears could very easily be 5-0 right now. Wow. The Falcons’ offense needs the run to set up the pass, and the Bears run defense has been one of the best in the league this year. So it’ll be strength vs strength here against Michael Turner. Atlanta has to be concerned with the passing yards they’ve given up over the past few weeks. Both of these teams may be 3-2, but the Bears have looked way better than the Falcons have.

Bears -3

MIAMI at HOUSTON (-3) – I can’t decide if its time to start jumping behind the Texans this week or next week. Miami is better, but I’m not sure if they’re at the point yet where they should be favored by 3 on the road. Their wins are coming from their solid play on defense. But the Texans can score points. And I think Houston has athletes on their defensive front seven to neutralize the Wildcat offense. CORRECTION: I originally read the line wrong and thought Miami was favored. No matter. The Texans owe me from last week.

Texans -3

Last Week – 0-4-1 | Overall: 18-17-2