Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
Rudy Gay took a giant step forward in his development, averaging just over 20 points a game and increasing his stats across the board in every category save for three-point percentage. Beyond that… They made a post-draft trade to acquire O.J. Mayo, who they hope will become the superstar their franchise has lacked in its history.

The bad news from last season:
They first parted ways with then-franchise centerpiece Pau Gasol last season, getting loose pieces and project players in return. Darko Milicic, who was inked to a three-year deal for $24 million prior to the season, put up decent numbers, but continued to run in place in regards to his overall development. Mike Conley’s development was stunted by missed playing time due to injuries. The rookie point guard missed 29 games over the course of the season. The trade to acquire Mayo also cost them Mike Miller, the best all-around player on the team, and brought them Marko Jaric’s contract and Antoine Walker in return. Juan Carlos Navarro, who signed a contract to play with his best friend Gasol and hit 156 treys last season, signed a contract to go back to Spain.

The revolving door:
IN: F Darrell Arthur, G Marko Jaric, G O.J. Mayo, F Antoine Walker
OUT: C Kwame Brown, F Brian Cardinal, F-C Jason Collins, F Kevin Love, G-F Mike Miller, G Juan Carlos Navarro

Team overview:
The “bad news” portion sums up that the team basically was blown up to rebuild around its young players and there are a lot of talented kids on the team, starting with a pair at the point guard slot who will duel for playing time. Mike Conley, last year’s first-round pick, will get the first crack at the spot. The former Buckeye had a decent rookie season in spite of being on the shelf for over a third of the season. Conley started all eight games in April, averaging 14.3 points, 4.3 assists, and 4.4 rebounds with a promising 13 threes on a 44.8 percent shooting percentage, compared to his 27.4 percent rate the rest of the year. Javaris Crittendon, who came over in the Gasol trade, gives a different look at the point as a 6′5″ player. Crittendon is a raw player, though, and needs more time to develop, including as a passer. At the two guard spot are Kyle Lowry and rookie O.J. Mayo. The undersized Lowry could develop into a combo guard off the bench if Mayo can play from the start of the season. The third-year man from Villanova needs to develop his outside shot, having connected on 25.7 percent of his treys last season. Memphis desperately needs Mayo to become a star and breathe life into the franchise. Marko Jaric dates a supermodel. Ideally, that is the extent of the knowledge you will need about him while he finishes his out his contract.

Rudy Gay developed into a leading man for Memphis last season, scoring 20.1 points per game and surpassing the 25-point plateau on 18 occasions. He could team with Mayo to become a high-flying tandem for years to come. Quinton Ross, a former Clipper, provides the Grizzlies with an option of a very good defender to come off the bench to match up against opposing swingmen. The low-post spots? They are not looking so good. Hakim Warrick may be banging with his 219-pound frame against power forwards every night. In his three years, Warrick has been caught between his small forward body and power forward spot and things will likely not change this season. Antoine Walker and Darrell Arthur will join him in the mix, but the team would be well-served to adhere Walker to the bench with super glue (or do the courteous thing and buy him out of the last year of his contract) and make the rookie from Kansas learn on the job. Darko Milicic will get another opportunity to prove himself at the NBA level, splitting time at the pivot with Marc Gasol. Milicic was off to a solid start to the season, averaging 11.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game in the first six contests of the season before getting hurt. He rebounded to post five double-doubles in March, including a 20-12 game against the Lakers. Gasol the Younger brings a more physical reputation to the NBA than what his brother currently owns.

Fantasy note:
Aside from Rudy Gay, no Grizzly should get drafted with any serious expectations. The rest of the roster is a complete mishmash, there are no guarantees for playing time, much less performance. Mayo is probably worth a flyer, as is Conley, but both are likely to be fringe players due to their drawbacks (field goal percentage, for example).

Best case scenario:
Gay takes another step forward, Conley develops in his second season, Kyle Lowry becomes a young Bobby Jackson off the bench, and Mayo shows enough to get the fans excited. Nothing outstanding can reasonably be expected from the frontcourt, which will kill any team, especially one in the Western Conference. The ceiling is about 28 wins and the true best case is winning the NBA lottery.

Worst case scenario:
No one other than Gay actually wins a starting job on the team. The team goes in the tank, winning 17 games and losing the lottery.