Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
It is more difficult to figure out this part for some teams than others. Milwaukee is one of those teams. Beyond Andrew Bogut’s continued growth and development toward being a franchise center, there were not a whole lot of high points for the Bucks. Bogut shouldered more of the load on offense, increasing his field goal attempts per 40 minutes from 11.1 to 13.4, not to mention he was more aggressive in getting to the line, increasing his free throw per minute rate by 38 percent. Of course, this may be tempered by the fact that Bogut was eligible for a contract extension… and got five years tacked on to his deal worth a total of $60.5 million. But, that’s crazy talk. No one in the NBA perks up their game when they are eligible for a huge payoff.

The bad news from last season:
The team mustered 26 wins as a dozen different players started games, with eight different men starting at least 20 times. The team finished 23rd in points allowed and 30th in field goal percentage defense, so it should not come as any surprise that they were 27th in point differential. Their inability to keep the ball also hurt the squad, as they finished 23rd in differential turnover, as well. Michael Redd’s shooting percentage slid in all three categories. To cap things, the team parted company with Mo Williams in an offseason trade, preferring to essentially start things over.

The revolving door:
IN: F Joe Alexander, F Malik Allen, G-F Adrian Griffin, F Richard Jefferson, G Tyronn Lue, G Luke Ridnour
OUT: G Royal Ivey, F Yi Jianlian, F Bobby Simmons, G Mo Williams

Team overview:
Normally, when a team has a poor season (say, their worst in thirteen years), they blow out the current coach and replace him with another one. Thus, Larry Krystkowiak is out and Scott Skiles is in to rectify the defensive shortcomings of the team. Sometimes, the team also decides to start from scratch, so they trade their star player who is under contract for three more years and has significant trade value for prospects, picks, and expiring contracts. Not so in Milwaukee. The Bucks opted to keep Michael Redd and surround him with an almost entirely different cast by making a pair of trades.

One of those trades sent out his backcourt mate, Mo Williams. The point guards looking to replace him are Luke Ridnour, Tyronn Lue, and Ramon Sessions. While Ridnour started for most of three seasons in Seattle, his lack of size and poor athleticism allow opposing guards to have their way with him. Lue split last season between Atlanta and Dallas. With a reputation as mostly a quick guard who applies defensive pressure on the ball, Lue has a surprisingly accurate shot, having made 44.7 percent of his shots last season, including 45.3 percent from deep. Sessions, however, is the most interesting of the trio. At 6′3″, he offers better size for the defensive end than either Ridnour or Lue. Sessions also hung some very interesting numbers in April. Sessions did not get into a game until March and started to get minutes in the season’s final month. Sessions started the final seven games of the campaign and averaged 13.1 points, 13.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game with 46.9 percent shooting from the field. Obviously, those numbers are a very small sample size, but he also had a 3.54-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in that time, not to mention a 20-point, 24-assist night against the Bulls. Redd will remain the top offensive option, but it will be interesting if the sweet-shooting lefty’s defense gets him yanked by Skiles at all. Charlie Bell is around to back up Redd, but needs to bounce back from a poor shooting season. Veteran defensive specialist Adrian Griffin is also in town for minutes at the swingman spots.

Richard Jefferson was brought in from New Jersey as a new running mate for Redd. While Jefferson has improved his shooting touch over the course of his career, he would be well served to return to his slashing ways to compliment Redd’s stroke from deep. While Jefferson scored a personal best 22.6 points per game while starting every contest for the Nets, his rebounding has seriously tailed off in the last couple seasons from around seven per game to just over four. Without a true power forward on the floor, Jefferson will need to focus on hitting the glass. Charlie Villanueva, Malik Allen, and Joe Alexander will likely see time at the four with Villanueva and Alexander getting some minutes at the three, as well. Allen may actually work his way into the starting lineup with his defense and experience with Villanueva falling into the role of offensive support off the bench. Villanueva will be eligible for a contract extension following the season, so he would be well served to use his size to become more effective on the glass, as well as improve his shooting since he lies to hang out beyond the arc. Alexander has great athleticism, but needs to add strength to play the power forward spot in the NBA. He will likely be brought along slowly. The third Buck locked into a starting spot is Andrew Bogut. Bogut averaged 14.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game. Those numbers were good enough for ninth in the league in caroms and 11th in blocks. Bogut was also a consistent producer, amassing 38 double-doubles. Francisco Elson and Dan Gadzuric will compete for minutes behind (and possibly next to) the Aussie.

Fantasy note:
Please keep an eye on the point guard battle. If Sessions impresses and earns the starting role, he is worth taking a flyer on, or at least is the one out of the three candidates at the spot who has the most fantasy potential. While he will not do anything nearly as well as he did in his audition to close last season, Sessions could be a 12-point, seven-assist, two-steal guy.

Best case scenario:
Bogut takes another step forward, averaging a double-double, Villanueva plays well enough to get a contract extension, and either Ridnour or Sessions earns the starting spot. The team will not play defense, or at least not to the level Skiles would like, but still wins 37 games and just misses the postseason.

Worst case scenario:
No point guard claims the role and Jefferson misses close to half the season, as he has done in each of the last two “odd-numbered” seasons (2004-2005 and 2006-2007). Villanueva is up-and-down and the team gets nothing from first-round pick Alexander. The team stagnates and wins 26 games again.