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2008 Frog NBA Preview – New Jersey

NBA

by DSafetyGuy on Thursday, October 16th, 2008 at 01:05pm

The good news from last season:
Vince Carter became more of a complete player last year, taking a hit in his scoring while tying a personal best in rebounds (6.0 per game) and achieving a career high in assists (5.1 per game). Devin Harris came over in the trade that sent Jason Kidd to Dallas and averaged 14.9 points, 6.7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game as a starter with the Nets. The Kidd trade did one thing in particular to help, clearing a lot of salary for the 2010 offseason, when LeBron James will be a free agent and the team hopes to be in Brooklyn and use minority owner Jay-Z to bring in the marquee player of the NBA. Josh Boone also took a step forward in his development in his second year.

The bad news from last season:
The team slid to 34 wins and missed the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. The trades of Jason Kidd during the season and Richard Jefferson following the season shift the focus of the team to the future, building around Carter. Kidd was sent packing during the All-Star break and the team closed by dropping 18 of their final 29. Breaking up the team, however, was not necessarily the worst thing, as the team was 25th in scoring and 28th in turnover differential.

The revolving door:
IN: F Ryan Anderson, G Keyon Dooling, G Chris Douglas-Roberts, F Jarvis Hayes, F Yi Jianlian, C Brook Lopez, F Eduardo Najera, F Bobby Simmons
OUT: C DeSagana Diop, F Richard Jefferson, C Nenad Krstic, F Bostjan Nachbar, G Marcus Williams


Team overview:
Vince Carter remains the lone star in New Jersey and will be asked to return to his higher-scoring ways after sliding to 21.3 points per game, his lowest full season average since 2002-2003. The Nets would undoubtedly like for Carter to resume driving to the basket more, as Carter’s free throw attempts per game slid from 7.0 to 5.6. Devin Harris will be a more than competent running mate for Carter. The fifth-year pro will be the unquestioned lead guard out of the gate and should continue to develop. One concern, though, is to get Harris’ shooting more consistent, as he slid from 48.3 percent to 43.8 percent from the field and from 35.7 percent to 32.0 percent from deep. Keyon Dooling will be the third guard, providing energy and defense off the bench. Dooling shot a career high 46.8 percent from the floor last season, only the second time he has knocked down over 41 percent in his career. Jarvis Hayes, who came over from Detroit this summer, is in line for backup minutes at the two (or slide Bobby Simmons down to the shooting guard slot). Veteran Darrell Armstrong and rookie Chris Douglas-Roberts will scrape for minutes off the bench.

Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian, a pair of imports from Milwaukee, will compete for the starting small forward spot. Simmons should have the advantage based on his defense and experience. Simmons missed all of the 2006-2007 season due to injury, but if he can bounce back to pre-injury form, he will be a valuable contributor on both ends (14.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game in the two seasons prior to injury). Yi, who hit the rookie wall last season, needs to improve his conditioning to withstand the rigors of the long NBA season. His best stretch was the first 40 contests of the season, when he averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 rebounds while hitting 44.4 percent of his shots (he made 36.6 percent the rest of the way). The power forward and center spots have a handful of candidates vying for minutes. Josh Boone and rookie Brook Lopez will likely split the minutes at center (or possibly form a young frontcourt tandem) while Eduardo Najera and Stromile Swift will scrap for minutes at the power forward spot. Sean Williams will fluctuate between the two roles. Boone should have the inside track to a starting job after taking a strong step forward in his sophomore campaign. He averaged 8.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, including 2.7 caroms on the offensive glass. While starting every game from January through March, Boone posted solid numbers (10.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks) in under 30 minutes per night. Lopez shows promise after averaging 19.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game at Stanford. Najera is instant energy off the bench, bringing defense and hustle every night, as well as an improved jump shot, having made 53 triples last season after making 14 in his first seven seasons. Swift has never delivered on his promise and it is difficult to believe he is starting his ninth season. Williams is another young live body off the bench and started 29 games as a rookie. An offensively raw player, Williams blocked 106 shots in limited action, actually finishing second in the league in blocks per minute.

Fantasy note:
If Josh Boone wins a starting job, he should play 30 minutes or more per night and be a semi-viable big man, especially if you are in a deep league. With a few more shots to go around without an established secondary scoring option, Boone could end up posting 13 points, nine rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game. His field goal percentage should easily be over 50 percent, but Boone is a terrible free throw shooter who will likely take around four or five attempts per game, so consider that risk.

Best case scenario:
Devin Harris gets some mention for All-Star consideration and complements Carter, who returns to being an elite scorer. Yi Jianlian takes a significant step forward in his second year and the Nets get competent play from their “big man by committee.” The ceiling is still pretty low for this team, capping at around 36 wins.

Worst case scenario:
The frontcourt never gets anyone established. With no real postseason hopes to play for, Carter becomes Charmin soft again while Harris cannot shake his shooting woes from last season. Yi stagnates in his second season and the team has a terrible time stopping anyone. The Nets slide down to 25 wins and the concern is not cap space for signing LeBron, but making sure they’re good enough on the court to interest him.