2008 Frog NBA Preview – New Orleans
by DSafetyGuy on Friday, October 17th, 2008 at 12:35pm
The good news from last season:
The Hornets celebrated its 20th season by winning a franchise-high 56 games and returned to the playoffs for the first time in four seasons, winning one round before bowing out. The team was proficient on both ends of the floor, finishing ninth in scoring and fifth in points allowed, which helped them finish sixth in point differential. One of the primary reasons for such an excellent performance was the team’s health, as the team’s five starters each made a minimum of 76 starts. Chris Paul was the shining star of the team, finishing second in MYP voting and being named to the All-NBA First Team after leading the league in assists and steals, the first player to achieve the feat in league history. David West also made the All-Star team as just about everything went the Hornets’ way.
The bad news from last season:
There’s not really a whole lot to realistically put here unless you want to cite the lack of quality depth on the team.
The revolving door:
IN: G-F Devin Brown, G-F James Posey
OUT: F-C Chris Andersen
Team overview:
It should come as no surprise that Chris Paul is the engine that drives the team. The only real fault to his game coming in to last season was his shaky outside shot, but Paul answered his critics by hitting 92 threes at a 36.9 percent rate, both personal bests. He cracked the 30-point plateau 15 times and bested 15 assists on 19 occasions, not to mention shot 48.8 percent from the floor on the season. Paul will be joined in the backcourt by either last year’s shooting guard, Morris Peterson, or the primary newcomer to the squad, James Posey. The two are similar players and the loser of the battle will handle most of the minutes off the bench at the swingman spots. Peterson made over 100 three-pointers for the sixth consecutive season, this time in fairly limited playing time (23.6 minutes per game). Posey will provide championship experience from his stops in Miami and Boston, as well as defense and the ability to also play power forward in a small lineup. His stat line from last year looks similar to what Peterson posted, but Posey is a better defender than Peterson. His additional positional flexibility may make him more valuable as a bench player. Jannero Pargo defected to Russia for a more lucrative contract, so the backup to Paul will likely be Mike James. James has regressed since his boom season in Toronto three years ago, but perhaps a defined role will help him regain his confidence and fix his jump shot (34.8 percent from the floor and 32.0 percent from three-point land last year). Devin Brown may get a few minutes at the two-guard, primarily as another defensive role player.
Peja Stojakovic had an amazing bounceback campaign last season. Coming off a year in which he only played 13 games, Stojakovic exploded, hitting 231 threes at a 44.1 percent clip, powering his way to a 16.4 point per game average. While Paul is clearly the man on this team, the Serbian sharpshooter is an underrated key to the Hornets’ success. He connected on 46.9 percent of his threes in Hornet wins and 37.3 percent of his tries from deep in losses. David West is the quietly consistent power forward who averaged 20.6 points and 8.9 rebounds a game last season. West hung 29 double-doubles last season, not including a 38-point, 14-rebound explosion against San Antonio in the playoffs. Rasual Butler will be available behind Stojakovic, as well as the loser of the Peterson/Posey derby. Butler, however, will have to regain his outside shot to earn minutes. Ideally, backing up West will be Julian Wright, a multi-talented second-year player. Wright was groomed for a little playoff action the last two months of the season, getting about 15 minutes per game in that span and averaging 6.5 points per game on 53.8 percent shooting from the floor. Tyson Chandler is the defensive-minded center who holds down the middle for the Hornets. He still has a limited game on offense, relying heavily on scoring in close, especially when finishing alley-oops (as evidenced by his 62.3 percent field goal shooting), but grabbed 11.7 rebounds per game with 4.1 of those coming on the offensive end, a number that led the league. Backing up Chandler, and possibly West, are veteran Melvin Ely and third-year man Hilton Armstrong. Ely has some low-post skills and has shown a willingness to rebound, while Armstrong needs to cut down on his fouling to make any serious impact.
Fantasy note:
Do not overweight Tyson Chandler’s rebounding and field goal percentage when contemplating drafting him. While he puts up decent scoring numbers for a center to complement those two stats, his field goal percentage is offset by his limited field goal attempts (7.7 shots per game) and his relatively poor shotblocking (1.1 per game). For an athletic big man, Chandler blocked relatively few shots last season (37th in blocks, 34th in blocks per game last season) and tailed off about 40 percent from the previous year.
Best case scenario:
Posey is the missing ingredient, Stojakovic stays healthy all season again, and the team gets some help from beyond the top six players on the roster. If there is quality depth beyond the top six, this team can win 60 games, go deep into the playoffs, and must be considered a contender for the NBA championship.
Worst case scenario:
The health of Paul and Stojakovic is paramount, so if either one gets a serious injury things will go sideways in a hurry. Should the team remain relatively healthy, the huge question is the bench. If Mike James stays in the tank and the big men give little off the bench, the team is still talented enough to withstand the rigors of the season. However, the team’s primary six players could be too run down for a postseason run, especially after last season’s playoff run and Paul’s Olympic summer. The floor for the regular season is about 48 wins, but the real worst case scenario is getting knocked out of the first round of the postseason.
