2008 Frog NBA Preview – New York
by DSafetyGuy on Saturday, October 18th, 2008 at 10:47am
The good news from last season:
There’s not much to be had here. Jamal Crawford averaged 20 points per game. Zach Randolph averaged a double-double and David Lee was in the neighboorhod of doing the same while primarily coming off the bench. Nate Robinson developed as a bench scorer. Perhaps the most important thing happened not only off the court, but after the season when Isiah Thomas was dismissed from the team. Donnie Walsh was brought in as president of basketball operations and he hired Mike D’Antoni as his coach. The two have a long way to go to rebuild the Knicks and will get plenty of rope to do so.
The bad news from last season:
The Knicks won 23 games last season, tying their franchise low since the NBA season expanded to 82 games, and extended their streak of seasons without a postseason appearance to four. As you would expect from a team that performed so poorly in the win column, they were also very poor statistically – 27th in field goal percentage and 28th in field goal percentage allowed (last in field goal percentage differential), 22nd in points allowed, 25th in point differential, 22nd in three-pointers allowed, 27th in turnovers forced and turnover differential, and you get the picture. Stephon Marbury was difficult, then got injured.
The revolving door:
IN: G Chris Duhon, F Danilo Gallinari
OUT: F Renaldo Balkman, C Randolph Morris
Team overview:
Mike D’Antoni will want to run at least some form of his uptempo offense, so point guard is a position of primary importance. As a result, the Knicks used their lone free agent offer to bring in Chris Duhon from Chicago. No one is going to confuse Duhon with Steve Nash, but he provides solid play, as evidenced by his 3.26-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio (including a 3.70 mark in this statistic last season) and 35.6 percent three-point shooting in his career. Jamal Crawford will be Duhon’s running mate and will enjoy D’Antoni’s style. Crawford likes to put it up (17.4 field goal attempts per game last season), including from deep (176 treys), but can also make plays (5.0 assists per game). It will be interesting how much rope he gets to possibly hang himself. Nate Robinson is likely to get a long look off the bench as a combo guard, as Crawford can handle point guard duties on offense. Robinson averaged 12.7 points per game and torched Portland for 45 points in a March matchup. Stephon Marbury will try to spend his last season trying to get into the lineup, or at least it seems that way. He is talking a good game at this juncture, but it remains to be seen what will happen once the games count and he stays on the bench. Mardy Collins is the defensive stopper on the bench.
Quentin Richardson is reunited with the coach he had his greatest success under. Back issues have slowed Richardson as a Knick, but in his lone season in Phoenix, he averaged 14.9 points (on a terrible shooting percentage), and 6.1 rebounds per game while burying 226 three-pointers. His familiarity with D’Antoni should help, but his health remains a pressing concern, as does rookie Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari, the 20-year-old Italian, had to be shut down during summer league play due to a back injury. He has a wide array of offensive skills, but remains to be seen if he is sturdy enough to withstand the rigors of the NBA. There is a possibility that the rookie will start the season in the D-League. Jared Jeffries will be out until at least mid-November with a fractured fibula, but was expected to make the rotation before the injury. As a result, Wilson Chandler will get a shot at minutes early in the season. Zach Randolph averaged 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game last year, but there was speculation this summer that he was getting shopped around the league, particularly to Memphis. His black hole style will be at odds with D’Antoni’s desires. David Lee will once again be the energy frontcourt player off the bench. Lee’s high-effort style suggests he will be a nice fit in a high-speed game, but his lack of shooting range and passing may hinder him. Eddy Curry and Jerome James are the true centers on the roster. Neither one is a dominant force or particularly athletic. Curry averaged 4.7 rebounds per game last season and 7.2 per 40 minutes. To illustrate how poor Curry’s rebounding rate is for a 6′11″ center, his teammate Quentin Richardson averaged 6.8 rebounds per 40 minutes. James still has two years and $12.8 million coming his way (the second year is a player option, but he cannot possibly turn that down) based on the contract given him by Isiah Thomas for his work in one playoff series with Seattle (17.2 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while shooting 58.1 percent in a first round win for the Sonics over the Kings who “gave him a trash bag to clean out his locker after they cut him”). James played five minutes last season and cannot reasonably expect that to change much.
Fantasy note:
Jamal Crawford and Chris Duhon are intriguing. If Crawford can get open looks without forcing things on offense, he could make 200 threes, as well as average about 23 points and five assists per game while making well over 80 percent from the line. Duhon, on the other hand, could average about 12 points, seven assists, and one three per game. While you must be careful with Crawford’s field goal percentage since he takes so many shots, Duhon will not hurt you nearly as much.
Best case scenario:
The best case and worst case scenarios are not that different. Most of the roster is ill-suited for the style D’Antoni wants to play. If Duhon can handle the point guard spot, Crawford plays under control, and Richardson has a bounceback year, the Knicks can win 28 games.
Worst case scenario:
The team gives up points by the bucketful and the offense does not work as Duhon is overwhelmed. Marbury is a distraction (reading the Post will be fun again) and Zach Randolph is traded for loose parts. The Knicks win 17 games, their fewest in their long history (that includes every season, including those where they only played 48 games).
