Sportsfrog.com

First, my apologies to the denizens of Seattle.

The good news from last season:
Kevin Durant showed all sorts of promise as a rookie, scoring 20.3 points per game and winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award. Earl Watson was a functional point guard and Nick Collison averaged a double-double with half of his appearances coming in a reserve appearance. The team did put forth a concentrated effort to hit the glass, grabbing the third-most rebounds in the league, but that was at least partially a function of the sheer number of field goal attempts both they and their opponents put up.

The bad news from last season:
The team won only 20 games in a campaign marred by the overwhelming specter of the team moving to Oklahoma City from Seattle. The Thunder showed a lot of what would be expected from a young, rebuilding team – poor shooting (23rd in the league), poor shooting on threes as the young players adjust to the pro game and extended line (28th in three-point percentage, 29th in three-pointers made), poor decisions (29th in turnovers), and poor defense (27th in points allowed).

The revolving door:
IN: G-F Desmond Mason, G Russell Westbrook, F D.J. White
OUT: F-C Francisco Elson, F Adrian Griffin, G Luke Ridnour

Team overview:
Kevin Durant played about as well as could be expected for a 19-year-old in the NBA. Durant, who just turned 20, struggled with his shot as he started his career, but improved greatly after hitting the rookie wall. In March and April, Durant averaged 22.6 points on 50 percent shooting from the floor and limited himself to just over one three-pointer attempted per game. Prior to that, Durant posted 19.3 points per game on 39.9 percent shooting with 3.1 hoists from deep per night. Durant is likely to be joined in the backcourt by Earl Watson, who had a solid season after earning a starting spot. Watson is not flashy, but defensively responsible and had a strong close to the season, averaging 14.2 points and 6.5 assists per game over the final three months, including a 49.6 percent rate from the floor. Russell Westbrook, the #4 overall selection in this year’s draft, should get around 15 minutes per night while learning the NBA game behind his fellow UCLA Bruin. Westbrook was quite good in the summer league in Orlando, averaging 16.5 points and only 1.5 turnovers in four games. Durant will be backed by a pair of veteran swingmen who will fill in at both the two and the three. Desmond Mason and Damien Wilkins provide a couple different options. Mason is the more offensively proficient player, particularly at slashing to the bucket, as evidenced by his career-high 48.2 percent mark from the field and zero three-point attempts for the second straight season. Wilkins is a hustle and energy guy who needs to rebound from his 40.3 percent shooting performance last season to continue to earn minutes.

Jeff Green, the other first-rounder for the franchise last season, was not nearly as successful as Durant. Green, though, was not asked to carry the team from the jump and finished his rookie campaign with averages of 10.5 points and 4.7 rebounds. Like his rookie mate, Green also finished strong, hanging 13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game over his last 33 contests. Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison should join Green in the starting frontcourt, even though they are undersized. Wilcox is athletic, but limited on offense, relying on scoring in close. Nonetheless, he is effective, posting 19.1 points and 10.0 rebounds per 40 minutes. Collison is less athletic and relies on getting garbage buckets more than anything else. His 13.8 points-per-40 minutes rate is not overly impressive, but his 13.1 rebounds in that time frame is. Veteran Joe Smith will provide some scoring punch and solid defense off the bench. He’ll be joined off the bench by 21 feet of center that has not paid off on their promise. Johan Petro, Mouhamad Sene, and Robert Swift look to provide depth off the bench. Petro provided the most last season, averaging 6.0 points and 5.1 boards in 72 games.

Fantasy note:
Durant should take a step forward, as evidenced by his last surge. The concern is that he does not provide superb numbers in any of the premium categories of steals, blocks, and threes. Unless he gets his field goal percentage over 45 percent, he is likely not worth drafting unless he falls to around the sixth round.

Best case scenario:
Westbrook is ready to take over the reins at point by the final two months of the season, Durant’s game resembles more of what he did in college and Wilcox and Collison hold their own down low. The team is still at least three seasons out from a playoff berth, but a bump to 26 wins is probably the ceiling.

Worst case scenario:
The team suffers through a repeat of last season in a tough Western Conference and they limp to 17 wins.