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2008 Frog NBA Preview – Orlando

NBA

by DSafetyGuy on Monday, October 20th, 2008 at 03:37pm

The good news from last season:
The Magic won 52 games and captured their first division title in nine years, then handled the Raptors in five games in the first round of the playoffs before getting knocked off by Detroit. Dwight Howard continued his growth, becoming an All-NBA First Team selection in only his fourth season as a pro. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu formed one of the most skilled forward tandems in the league, helping power the team to the sixth-highest scoring output in the league on the fifth-fewest field goal attempts. Behind this efficient offense and a defense that was seventh in field goal percentage allowed, the team finished fifth in point differential. Once the season got underway, the team was rather healthy, as well, starting only eight players on the season.

The bad news from last season:
Tony Battie, who had been expected to start at power forward last season next to Howard, tore his rotator cuff and was lost for the season. The point guard play was still lacking. Jameer Nelson, who signed a five-year, $33 million and change extension just before the season started, never truly grabbed the starting spot. The two-guard slot was deficient, as well, having been split between one-dimensional players Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans. The bench was lacking, as well, requiring the team to lean on its frontcourt starters for 37 minutes per night each.

The revolving door:
IN: G Anthony Johnson, G-F Courtney Lee, G-F Mickael Pietrus
OUT: G Carlos Arroyo, G Keyon Dooling, G-F Maurice Evans


Team overview:
Dwight Howard is the monster in the middle, having averaged 20.7 points, a league-leading 14.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game last season. His offensive game is still not fully developed and he would be well-served to focus on his touch, as evidenced by his 59.0 percent “success” rate at the charity stripe. It would not be so bad if he didn’t average 10.9 free throws per game. Rashard Lewis was a huge addition to the team, opening things up for Howard by making 226 three-ponters at a 40.9 percent rate. He averaged 18.2 points per game and defended bulkier power forwards on a nightly basis. Hedo Turkoglu exploded last season in a do-everything small forward role. He finished second on the team with a 19.5-point scoring average, 166 threes, 471 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game while playing every contest. Adonal Foyle was re-signed in the offseason and will back up Howard. Foyle is a reliable rebounder and shot-blocker. Tony Battie will likely come back from last year’s lost season to provide support off the bench. Battie can replace either Lewis or Turkoglu on the floor, allowing Lewis to play the three for a handful of minutes per game when Turkoglu is lifted. Battie did fracture a finger on his left hand in the preseason, but is expected to be back in time for the season opener.

Most of Jameer Nelson’s competition at point guard left the team, so he enters the season as the unquestioned point guard, for better or worse. Nelson improved his shot last year, getting his three-point percentage up to 41.6 percent on the season, then built on that by averaging 16.2 points per game in the postseason. Turkoglu’s presence relieves Nelson of some playmaking duties, so his deficiencies are somewhat covered up. Anthony Johnson signed to take over the backup point guard role, bringing his solid, but unspectacular game to Orlando. The veteran is capable of running a team, though, so he should provide a solid presence off the bench. Mickael Pietrus came over from Golden State through free agency and slides into the starting two-guard spot. Pietrus is a capable defender, but is also a competent perimeter shooter, hitting 37.6 percent of his attempts from long range over the last two seasons. His shooting will also help open things up for Howard inside, as the Magic will likely have four three-point threats surrounding Howard on the floor most of the time. Keith Bogans, who started almost half of the Magic schedule last season, will provide another outside shooter for the rotation, having hit 148 triples last season. Bogans will see minutes at both the two and the three. J.J. Redick and rookie Courtney Lee round out the bench, but will likely have minimal roles, as Redick registered 276 minutes last season and Lee faces the jump from Western Kentucky to the NBA.

Fantasy note:
Pietrus could be a nice sleeper if his minutes bump up to over 30 per night, which should happen in Orlando. In his last two season in Golden State, Pietrus posted decent per-40-minute rates of 15.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.0 threes, and 1.4 steals. While he will not get 40 minutes per night in Orlando and the Magic play at a slower pace than the Warriors, Pietrus should still average over a steal and a three per game, which means he should at least be on the radar, most likely as a waiver pick-up or injury fill-in.

Best case scenario:
With its additional quality depth in place, the team rolls to another division title, winning 56 games and the second seed in a tougher Eastern Conference. Howard becomes a serious MVP candidate and powers the team to a seven-game loss in the second round of the playoffs.

Worst case scenario:
Nelson remains an up-and-down player at the point and the team’s defense lapses. They are still a very talented bunch and injuries will be the only thing to seriously submarine the season. The team wins 46 games (which will most likely win the division) and gets upset in the first round.