Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
The team was able to get out from under Shaquille O’Neal and his contract by trading the declining big man to Phoenix and received Shawn Marion in exchange. Beyond that, there was not much worth writing home about.

The bad news from last season:
The team tied its franchise record for worst win-loss record of 15-67, which was originally set in the franchise’s first season. This was driven in part by Dwyane Wade’s injury that cost him 31 games. The team still carded a 10-41 (.196) record with Wade in the lineup, so there were significant issues beyond his injury, including Udoonis Haslem missing 33 games. The team finished last in the NBA in scoring at 91.4 points per game and, as a consequence, were 29th in scoring differential. They were 25th in field goal percentage and last in rebounding differential.

The revolving door:
IN: F Michael Beasley, G Mario Chalmers, G-F Yakhouba Diawara, F James Jones, G Shaun Livingston
OUT: G-F Ricky Davis, G Jason Williams

Team overview:
Erik Spoelstra, a long-time assistant to Pat Riley, was deemed the successor to the coaching spot on the Heat bench. Spoelstra, the youngest head man in the NBA, has his work cut out for him, but he does have one advantage. Dwyane Wade’s return to health, as he showed in the Summer Olympics, is the key for the Heat to come back to respectability under Spoelstra. Wade scored 24.6 points per game last season while dishing out almost seven assists a night. His return will make everything easier. The big question is who will join him in the backcourt. Chris Quinn started 25 games at the point and was competent, posting a 3.24-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and making 40.3 percent of his attempts from deep. His size and lack of athleticism, however, are easily exploited. Marcus Banks, whose pressure defense is his strongest attribute, also came over in the O’Neal trade and posted solid per-40-minute rates of 17.6 points and 5.6 assists. Rookie Mario Chalmers is also in the mix. Wade will be backed up by Daequan Cook, whose rookie season left some things to be desired. Cook on only shot 38.1 percent from the field during the campaign. The Heat are undoubtedly hoping he can build on his close to the season, as he finished his final 19 games by scoring in double figures 13 times including topping 20 points on three occasions. The oft-injured Shaun Livingston, who suffered a horrendous knee injury while with the Clippers, is hoping to return to his promising career.

The frontcourt features three players who should complement Wade nicely. Shawn Marion saw his numbers, save for rebounding, slide after coming over from Phoenix, most likely due to a weaker supporting cast that allowed foes to focus on him and without an elite point guard to set him up. Wade’s presence should certainly help rectify that. Udonis Haslem should provide his usual blue-collar game. Haslem tallied personal bests last season with averages of 12.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, but may be requested to slide over to the center spot, at least at certain times, to make room for rookie Michael Beasley. Beasley, the #2 pick in the draft, was simply a monster in his lone college season. He averaged 26.2 points (third in Division I) and 12.4 rebounds per game (first in Division I) while shooting 53.2 percent from the floor. There are three small forward types who will be in the mix off the bench, two of them imports. The first is James Jones, a long-ball specialist who came over from Portland and is just shy of being a career 40 percent shooter from three. Jones made a personal-best 44.4 percent on his shots from long range last season. The other import is Yakhouba Diawara, who comes from Denver. Diawara is a defender, period. Dorell Wright is a youngster who started 34 games for Miami last season. Wright, who will turn 23 during the season, is an athlete who still needs to develop his game in his fifth season in the league. The Heat also have three traditional big men on the roster, led by Mark Blount. Blount does nothing exceptionally well, so it would not be a surprise to see him in a decreased role this season should the Heat see success with Haslem at center. Jamaal Magloire suffered a broken bone in his hand early in the preseason, so Joel Anthony, a young shotblocker who has made a stir with his improvement in camp this fall, may get an opportunity to show if he has polished his offensive game at all.

Fantasy note:
Beasley is the member of this year’s draft class most likely to have a significant fantasy impact. Beasley should be able to post around 16 points and eight rebounds a game. It is unlikely that he will make or block shots with the frequency he did in college, simply due to a much more even playing field of size and skill. He will be a solid contributor, but nothing outstanding.

Best case scenario:
Wade returns to his MVP-caliber play and meshes nicely with Shawn Marion, who plays with the fervor expected of a player in a contract year, and Michael Beasley, who holds his own against the big men of the league. The team, while a little undersized and weak at the point guard slot, could still finish at .500, which may be good enough to sneak in to the postseason, where their stars could wreak havoc and be a very difficult first round out.

Worst case scenario:
Spoelstra does not handle the head coaching slot well, Beasley struggles, and the team sends Marion out, figuring that he will not re-sign. None of the point guards work out and the team gets worked over on the glass. The team ends up winning 29 games.