2008 Frog NBA Preview – Philadelphia
by DSafetyGuy on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008 at 04:11pm
The good news from last season:
The Sixers exceeded expectations, winning 40 games and making the playoffs as the #6 seed. The team was excellent on the defensive end of the floor, finishing 7th in points allowed and 6th in turnovers forced. Philadelphia was not offensively proficient, but effective nonetheless, complementing their 11th-place finish in field goal shooting by tracking down more offensive rebounds than all but one team. Andre Miller was excellent, posting personal bests in points per game and field goal percentage. His backcourt mate Andre Iguodala took another step forward in his development and was rewarded in the offseason with a contract extension. The Iguodala signing came on the heels of an even bigger offseason move, though, as Elton Brand inked a five-year deal to play in Philly.
The bad news from last season:
Three-point shooting was once again a huge deficiency for the Sixers, as the team finished at the bottom of the NBA in three-point baskets and three-point shooting percentage. To compound the lack of outside shooting, the team traded away Kyle Korver for Gordan Giricek, who they let go during last season. The Sixers added very little in shooting range in the offseason. The team jumped out to a 2-1 lead on the Pistons in the first round of the playoffs, but dropped the next three as they were escorted out of the postseason. Andre Miller’s production slid significantly, as he mustered 3.3 asissts per game in the series. Andre Iguodala’s offense was locked up, as well, as he plummeted from 19.9 points per game in the regular season to 13.2 in the postseason.
The revolving door:
IN: F Elton Brand, G Royal Ivey, G Kareem Rush, C Marreese Speights
OUT: C Calvin Booth, F Rodney Carney
Team overview:
The “All-Andre” backcourt was clearly the strength of the team. Not only did Andre Miller log his best field goal percentage of 49.2 percent, but he did so on over 100 more shots than any other season of his career. Miller was also a nifty playmaker, averaging 6.9 assists, but his range is limited, as evidenced by his 3-for-34 effort from beyond the arc. Andre Iguodala improved his scoring for the fourth straight season, coming ten points shy of averaging 20 per night on the year. Iguodala’s confidence from outside is improving, as he made 101 three-pointers, but his consistency (32.9 percent from deep) needs to reach the same level. In his fourth season, Louis Williams must show that he can play the point with some degree of proficiency. Williams has point guard size, but a shooting guard mentality (2.02 assist-to-turnover ratio). It must change this season, as no one else on the roster can handle the point in a substitute role. Willie Green is around to play as a combo guard off the bench and combines with Williams to provide scoring punch. Green averaged 12.4 points per game last season as a starter, but his career three-point mark of 30.9 percent is not going to help. Royal Ivey is the designated defender and Kareem Rush looks to earn playing time as a long-distance shooter (102 treys with a 38.9 percent success rate in Indiana last year).
Willie Green’s move to the bench is due to Thaddeus Young getting promoted to the starting lineup. Young, as many rookies do, developed and earned more and more time as the season progressed. He closed strong in his final 37 games, hitting 57.0 percent from the floor and posting 11.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game. Not bad numbers for a rookie in 27.4 minutes per night during that time. Elton Brand recovered from his Achilles’ injury to appear in the last eight games of the season for the Clippers, starting six of them. Brand showed minimal ill effects in his April cameo. When projecting his statistics out to his career normal load of playing time (38.3 minutes per contest), Brand would have posted 19.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game. Tack on an offseason of additional rehab and some easier nights now that he’s in the East and Brand should be back to his 20-10 levels in no time. Look for Iguodala to slide to the three for several minutes per game, as there is no trusted three on the bench. There are a few candidates for minutes backing up Brand, including bruiser Reggie Evans and veteran outside threat Donyell Marshall. Evans figures to be first in line, as his toughness and rebounding are good for 15 minutes per night, including a little at center, if needed. Evans grabbed 13 rebounds per-40-minutes and finished 18th in the league in offensive rebounds per game while playing less than a half every time out. Marshall’s productivity and playing time have tailed off greatly the last few years and he rarely got off the bench in either Cleveland or Seattle last year. At 35 years of age, there is no renaissance coming. Coming off a year where he averaged a double-double, Samuel Dalembert will man the middle again. Dalembert finished fourth in the league in blocks and third in offensive rebounds, so he should combine with Brand to be a threat around the rim on both ends of the floor. Veteran shotblocker Theo Ratliff returns to Philadelphia, where he had his greatest success as a pro. Ratliff has played under 500 minutes the last couple seasons combined, but can still defend the rim more than adequately, averaging over 3.3 blocks-per-40 minutes last season.
Fantasy note:
Thaddeus Young is a player to watch. He should develop into a third option this year and could get his production up to 14 points, six rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game. He will not make threes, though, but he could be a decent late-round selection in deep leagues or waiver pick-up in smaller leagues.
Best case scenario:
Brand is everything the Sixers hoped for when they inked him, posting 20-10 every night and drawing double-teams to open up the perimeter for the outside shooters, who take advantage of open looks. On top of this, the team maxes out its effort again, pestering the opposition on defense and working hard on the glass. The team notches 48 wins and pulls off a first-round upset.
Worst case scenario:
The team’s outside deficiencies remain and opponents choose to play Brand straight up, challenging the outside shooters to make them pay. Andre Miller backslides, as does Andre Iguodala, and the team wins 41 games before getting bounced in the first round.
