Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
Despite retooling on the fly with their midseason acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal, the Suns posted 55 wins on the season. The team, despite relying on some older players, stayed healthy compared to most NBA squads, starting only seven different players over the course of the year. The Suns also kept up their proficient and efficient offense, relying on the league’s highest field goal percentage and assist total in order to tally the third-most points on the campaign. The team also led the league in three-point percentage and finished fourth in treys made and free throw percentage.

The bad news from last season:
As a consequence of their uptempo style and lots of possessions, the Suns finished 25th in points allowed, but still finished seventh in point differential. Following the trade for O’Neal, the Suns were 21-13, including 17-11 with the big man in their lineup, but their 34-14 mark prior to the trade was significantly better. Despite having Amare Stoudemire and either O’Neal or Shawn Marion on the squad, the team finished 25th in rebounding differential on the season. The franchise also parted ways with Mike D’Antoni after the season in spite of averaging 58 wins in each of the last four seasons. The primary reason was the team’s failure to advance in the postseason, including last season’s first-round ouster by the Spurs.

The revolving door:
IN: F Matt Barnes, C Robin Lopez
OUT: F-C Brian Skinner

Team overview:
Terry Porter was brought in to hold the reins after Mike D’Antoni was let go. Porter was the lead man in Milwaukee for two seasons, compiling 71 wins and one playoff appearance in that time. Porter will have significantly more talent at his disposal than he did while leading the Bucks, but the question is if he can build the team into a halfcourt team that relies on execution and defense.

Steve Nash will be back for yet another season of guiding the team from the point. Nash remained one of the league’s premier set-up men, finishing second in the league in both assists and assists per game, while logging his fourth straight season of making more than half his field goals and connecting on a personal high of 47.0 percent of his threes. Raja Bell will flank Nash again as the team’s defensive agitator and a three-point specialist. Bell averaged 11.9 points per game and connected on 176 triples, which was seventh-best in the NBA. Leandro Barbosa will return in his combo guard role off the bench. Barbosa once again will be instant offense off the pine, as he slid backwards, but still averaged 15.6 points per game last season, powered by his 156 treys. Goran Dragic, who was a second-round pick of the Spurs, and fellow rookie Sean Singletary from Virginia will try to get into the rotation as a backup point guard.

Instead of either youngster playing much at the point, it is possible Grant Hill will log some minutes in the backcourt, as well contribute from his starting role at small forward. Hill appeared in 70 games (his highest mark in eight years) and had a solid season. His lack of outside shooting will probably not be as big a deficiency now that the team will be slowing down on offense. In his second season back from his microfracture surgery and the issues that went with it, Amare Stoudemire returned to being a dominant player, averaging 25.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game while making 59.0 percent of his field goal attempts. One thing that may hold Stoudemire back, at least at the outset of the season, is an eye injury he suffered in training camp that has him wearing goggles. Matt Barnes, who was in and out of Don Nelson’s rotation, came from Golden State and provides another player who can space the floor. Barnes made 106 three-pointers two seasons ago and is willing to mix it up under the glass, having averaged over 9 rebounds per 40 minutes last season. He should see a pretty good chunk of minutes if Dragic does not work out at the point as Hill slides to the backcourt at times. Boris Diaw will get frontcourt minutes, as well, bringing back his multi-talented game. Diaw needs to regain his touch from the floor having slid from over 53 percent shooting the previous two seasons to last season’s 47.7 percent mark. Shaquille O’Neal will be in the middle from the jump this season. O’Neal improved his rebounding after joining the Suns, averaging double figures while in Phoenix (including 14.7 rebounds per 40 minutes) and posting a dozen double-doubles in his 28 games. If O’Neal can focus on defense and rebounding, he could be a boon to the Suns. Stoudemire will likely shift to center for a few minutes a night, but it would help the frontcourt if rookie Robin Lopez is ready to be a rotation player out of the gate. Lopez was an excellent shotblocker and rebounder in his two seasons at Stanford, and if he can do those two things, Phoenix will be happy.

Fantasy note:
With the Suns’ slowing down their pace, expect stats for most players to slide. Nash may lose a couple assists per game and everyone should lose a point or two per game, save for Stoudemire, who should become an even bigger focus for the offense, especially with O’Neal on the floor to distract the opposition’s big men. In the 27 contests where the two played together, Stoudemire tallied 28.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game on 58.3 percent field goal shooting.

Best case scenario:
O’Neal improves the team’s defensive presence and the team adjusts well to a halfcourt offense. The outside shooters keep things open for the two big men and the team gets contributions from Dragic and Lopez. The slower tempo saves wear and tear on the older players and helps the team be fresh for the stretch run. The Suns hang 58 wins and grind out an NBA championship.

Worst case scenario:
The team’s defensive deficiencies come to the forefront as their offense is slowed down. Barbosa regresses as he is harnessed in and the team wins 49 games, then gets bounced after the first round. (Things will really go sideways if Nash gets hurt for an extended period of time, but health is assumed for these predictions.)