2008 Frog NBA Preview – Sacramento
by DSafetyGuy on Friday, October 24th, 2008 at 10:59am
The good news from last season:
The Kings reversed their trend of winning fewer games than the previous year, bumping their win total up to 38 from 33 the previous season. Led by Kevin Martin and Ron Artest, who combined for over 44 points per game, the team was solid on offense, finishing eighth in the NBA in points and ninth in field goal percentage. Beno Udrih proved himself to be a decent option at point guard and Mikki Moore was a dependable power forward.
The bad news from last season:
Artest missed 25 games during the season and was sent to Houston in the offseason as the Kings retool around Martin and a cast of youth. Mike Bibby was also sent out before the trade deadline to begin the roster turnover. Even with Artest around, the team was poor defensively, finishing 24th in points allowed, 22nd in field goal percentage defense, and 25th in three-point field goals made. The team also was not physically tough, getting beat on the boards on a regular basis (they finished 23rd in rebounding differential), or mentally tough, finishing 21st in turnover differential. Mounting injuries were also a problem, as only four players who played regular heavy minutes appeared in 70 or more games. Even as he developed into a star, Martin missed 21 contests.
The revolving door:
IN: F Donte Greene, G Bobby Jackson, F Jason Thompson
OUT: G Anthony Johnson
Team overview:
With Mike Bibby injured, then traded to Atlanta last season, Beno Udrih took over the point guard slot. Udrih played well as a starter (significantly better than he did as a reserve), tallying 14.4 points and 5.0 assists per game, as well as shooting 47.4 percent from the floor. It seems that his confidence increased with a stating role and it carried over to his production. Kevin Martin will flank Udrih at the two-guard again after logging his best season as a professional. While his season was shortened by injury, Martin still finished sixth in the NBA in scoring, pouring in 23.7 points per game. Martin simultaneously improved his outside shooting, making 40.2 percent from beyond the arc, and his ability to get to the rim, leading the league in free throws per minute. John Salmons will likely play the three. Salmons started half of the season for the Kings last year and averaged 12.5 points per game. His defense will provide a nice complement to Martin’s offense, as they are essentially interchangeable on the defensive end of the floor. Bobby Jackson is back for his second tour of duty in Sacramento and will be a source of instant offense off the bench from the point guard slot. Quincy Douby is an undersized two-guard who provides some outside shooting off the bench, having improved his three point shooting to 34.4 percent. He still needs to further improve his range to ensure his spot in the rotation. Speaking of bench perimeter shooting, Francisco Garcia will get some time at both wing spots after burying 113 treys at a 39.1 percent clip. Should Salmons slip, Garcia may supplant him in the lineup after averaging 16.4 points per game in 20 starts last season.
Mikki Moore was a starter for the first time in his career and provided adequate numbers. Moore made 57.7 percent of his shots en route to averaging 8.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. His lack of bulk is troubling in the Western Conference and it array of talented big men. He will be pushed for minutes by rookie Jason Thompson. Thompson was a four-year starter at Rider and dominated the low-level competition, posting 20.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game as a senior. Another rookie, Donte Greene, was acquired in the Artest trade, and will threaten for minutes at both forward spots. Greene will get some looks at the four based on his height (a 6′ 11″ string bean), as well as the three (90 three-pointers in his lone season at Syracuse). Greene is a project, though, so there are no expectations for instant results. Kenny Thomas is also around, looking to bounce back from a lost season where he only played in 23 games. Brad Miller returns at center for his sixth campaign as a King. Miller had a resurgence last year, posting 13.4 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Miller is not a deterrent at the rim, but provides excellent passing for a big man, as well as a soft touch from the perimeter. Shelden Williams, who came over from Atlanta in the Bibby trade, has shown excellent rebounding ability in his two seasons in the NBA, averaging 11.2 rebounds per 40 minutes. Unfortunately, his rebounding skills are surpassed by his fouling skills (5.4 fouls per 40 minutes in his career). Spencer Hawes, last season’s first-round choice, received a decent amount of playing time last season, but still needs to add strength and polish to his game. There is promise there, though, as Hawes averaged 12.3 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in his eight starts late in the season.
Fantasy note:
Aside from Martin (who should crack 26 points per game this season) and Miller, Udrih brings the most to the table from a fantasy perspective. Udrih should be able to at least replicate his performance as a starter last season, save for the field goal percentage (14.4 points, 5.0 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.9 threes per game with 47.4 percent shooting from the floor and 86.1 percent accuracy from the stripe). With a little more pressure to provide scoring, his field goal percentage may slide.
Best case scenario:
Martin becomes a top-notch scorer, Udrih a legitimate starting point guard, and the young talent (Thompson, Hawes) is not completely over their heads. Still, without Artest and Bibby, arguably two of the team’s best three players last season, the team will regress in their youth movement, winning 32 games.
Worst case scenario:
Martin and Miller are the only ones who perform consistently and the team defense does not improve. The Kings backslide to 21 wins.
