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2008 Frog NBA Preview – San Antonio

NBA

by DSafetyGuy on Saturday, October 25th, 2008 at 11:30am

The good news from last season:
The Spurs won 56 games last year, which would be cause for celebration for almost every other franchise in the league. The team continued to roll behind their three All-Star caliber players in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili and was mostly healthy, as five players started at least 61 games. As expected, it was the same old story for San Antonio, as they were propelled by their work on the defensive end. They finished third in points allowed, fifth in field goal percentage allowed, third in three-point field goal percentage allowed and third in three-point baskets allowed.

The bad news from last season:
The bar is so high for this successful organization, being eliminated in five games in the Western Conference Finals by the Lakers made last season a disappointment as a whole. The team is not elite on the offensive end, as shown by their 14th place ranking in field goal percentage. They finished 27th in scoring but, using their low scoring mark is nit-picking, as the Spurs ranked 28th in field goal attempts and were still eighth in point differential. Beyond that, they have a very old roster, but that is not a legitimate complaint with the quality of their team and what they have accomplished.

The revolving door:
IN: G George Hill, G Roger Mason
OUT: G Brent Barry


Team overview:
Tim Duncan, one of the elite big men in the history of the league, had just another excellent season as the centerpiece of the team. Duncan was a machine, as usual, posting 19.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. He will be joined in the starting lineup up front by Fabricio Oberto. The Argentinian is simply a role player for about 20 minutes per game. Oberto has double-double capabilities, but rarely gets enough playing time to produce those numbers. Kurt Thomas is first in line off the bench for minutes at the power forward spot with Duncan sliding down low to the center spot, but the two are interchangeable. Thomas brings his usual tough defense, rebounding presence, and mid-range jump shot. Ian Mahinmi, a Frenchman, will likely get spot duty as the fourth big man. He appeared in six games for a total of 22 minutes last season as a rookie before being sent down to the D-League, where he posted very good stats (17.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game with 61.5 percent field goal shooting).

The backcourt is led by Tony Parker, who turned in his usual excellent numbers while missing most of February with an injury. Parker averaged 18.8 points and 6.0 rebounds per game while connecting on just under 50 percent of his field goal attempts. He would still be well served to extend his shooting range, as Parker only made 17 triples last season. Manu Ginobili will join him in the backcourt for the majority of the playing time even though he is just a sometime starter. Ginobili is not expected to be with the team until mid-December, due to getting his ankle surgically repaired, but that may help him be fresher for an extended playoff run. If the team has starts slowly without him, Ginobili may be promoted to the starting lineup when healthy in order to give them some more scoring punch. Ginobili averaged a career-best 19.5 points per game last year, partly because he averaged over 30 minutes per game for the first time and partly because he averaged 22.4 points per game in 23 starts, getting 35.4 minutes per contest. Bruce Bowen will once again return to his swingman stopper role. Bowen missed a game for the first time in six seasons last year and is often overlooked for his three-point proficiency, having hit 41.9 percent from deep last season. Michael Finley will likely start at the two-guard while Ginobili is shelved early (and possibly after Ginobili returns). Finley has evolved into primarily an outside shooter, making 132 treys last season, his most since he was a full-time player in Dallas. Ime Udoka is the backup behind Bowen and brings a similar style, providing three-point shooting with a defensive presence. The Spurs have a pair of options behind Parker at the point. Veteran Jacque Vaughn provides a steady hand, providing just under a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in about 15 minutes per night last season. First-round choice George Hill was selected out of IUPUI as the backup point guard of the future. Hill averaged 21.5 points as a senior and shot over 50 percent from the floor in all four of his collegiate seasons.

Fantasy note:
The three Spurs that are realistic fantasy options are established players who will provide what they have in the past. The only thing up in the air is when Ginobili should be drafted, as he should miss at least the first 20 games. He is very well-rounded and worth snagging before your lineup is completed, probably around when you have two available slots in your lineup (9th round when you have a ten-player lineup, etc.).

Best case scenario:
One for the thumb for Tim Duncan and Greg Popovich.

Worst case scenario:
The Spurs’ collective age really starts to show and Ginobili struggles while coming back from his injury. The team’s defensive focus will always be there, so their floor is around 49 wins, even in the West. A first round postseason defeat would simply cap off a disastrous season (for this franchise’s high expectations) and possibly start an overhaul of the roster.