Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
The team made the playoffs for the second consecutive year, keyed by a smooth-shooting offense that finished seventh in field goal percentage, second in three-point percentage, and second in free throw percentage. The team was also quite efficient, compiling the fifth-highest assist total and second-lowest turnover mark. Chris Bosh was an All-Star and Jose Calderon earned some All-Star rumblings for his work after replacing the injured T.J. Ford last season. Jamario Moon came out of nowhere to earn not only a roster spot, but also a spot in the starting lineup. The team also made a blockbuster trade, sending out Ford, their first round pick, and some additional parts to Indiana in order to bring back six-time All-Star Jermaine O’Neal.

The bad news from last season:
The Raptors’ playoff appearance was primarily due to the weak Eastern Conference, as their 41-41 record earned them the fifth seed, where they were beaten in five games by Orlando. The team was soft on the glass, finishing 22nd in rebounding differential, and despite a fairly nice ranking in points allowed (tenth), they were below average on defense, ranking 15th in defensive field goal percentage, 21st on three-point percentage allowed, and 29th in three-point baskets allowed. Injuries had a significant effect, as Bosh was one of only three Raptors to start at least 57 games, and he still missed a month. Former first-round pick Andrea Bargnani also did not improve in his second year.

The revolving door:
IN: F/C Jermaine O’Neal
OUT: C Primoz Brezec, G Carlos Delfino, G T.J. Ford, C Roy Hibbert, C Rasho Nesterovic

Team overview:
Chris Bosh and Jermaine O’Neal should form an exceptional frontcourt duo. Bosh, the centerpiece of the franchise, tallied just over 22 points per game for the third straight season, but backslid in his rebounding from 10.7 rebounds to 8.7 caroms per game. The biggest concern is if he can avoid minor injuries, as Bosh has missed between ten and 15 games in each of the last three seasons. O’Neal is healthy for the first time in three years, but is still a major risk for the Raptors. While the team could afford to give up what they sent to Indiana, if O’Neal cannot stay healthy or is a shadow of the player who had three seasons where he averaged a double-double in points and rebounds, the trade is going to blow up in the Raptors’ face. The Raptors would be pleased if O’Neal also picks up his shooting, as he has been under 44 percent the last couple years. Jamario Moon will join the two big men in the lineup, bringing athleticism to the starting lineup. Moon came out of nowhere to start 75 contests for Toronto last season and ended up leading the team in blocked shots and finishing second in steals. Andrea Bargnani will get a shot at the backup minutes at the four and be paired with either Bosh or O’Neal at center. Bargnani slumped to 38.6 percent shooting from the field and 34.5 percent from deep, which, combined with his low rebounding rate (6.2 boards per 40 minutes), means he has to step up his game or risk being out of the league. Kris Humphries will come off the bench when the team needs someone to bang down low, as evidenced by this 11.2 rebounds-per-40-minute rate. Elite marksman Jason Kapono will get a shot at the bulk of the backup minutes at the three. Kapono’s tremendous defensive deficiencies have seriously limited his minutes in the past, but with two shotblockers protecting the rim in Bosh and O’Neal, perhaps he will get more opportunities to cash in from deep (50.3 percent on threes the last two seasons). Joey Graham is also around as a more athletic and defensively capable player.

Jose Calderon will be the unchallenged starter at the point with T.J. Ford sent to Indiana in the trade for O’Neal. Calderon was simply masterful last season, leading the league with a 5.38-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, averaging 8.3 assists per game (fifth in the NBA) in just a shade over 30 minutes per night, and shooting 51.9 percent from the field, which put him in the top 20 in the league and third among guards. In his 56 starts last season, the Spaniard posted 13.0 points and 9.1 assists per game while making 53.1 of his field goals and 91.1 percent of his free throws. Clearly, Ford was expendable. Anthony Parker will join Calderon in the backcourt. The only Raptor to start every game last season, Parker led the team in three-pointers with 133 and shot 43.8 percent from beyond the arc. In the games that Bosh as injured and missed in the late part of the season, Parker picked up his game, averaging 18.4 points over an 11-game span. Two unproven (in the NBA, anyway) guards back up the point. Will Solomon, a 30-year-old who last played in the league seven seasons ago when he appeared in 62 games as a rookie with Vancouver (yeah, not Memphis), and Roko Ukic, a 22-year-old who has played professionally in Europe for eight seasons, will battle for the backup minutes. Graham and Kapono will also chip in behind Parker at the two.

Fantasy note:
The Raptors will be what they are. Expect Bosh to perform on a similar level to last season, hope for a bounceback season from O’Neal, and Calderon to perform as he did when he started, perhaps even better with O’Neal around. Calderon should be able to average 14 points, ten assists, and close to 1.5 steals and 1.5 threes per game with excellent shooting percentages.

Best case scenario:
O’Neal returns to his previous form and combines with Bosh to give the Raptors 40 points and 20 rebounds per game while Calderon joins them as potential All-Stars. The team wins 53 games, finishes second behind the Celtics in the division, and advances to the conference finals before getting eliminated.

Worst case scenario:
The O’Neal trade bombs and the team finishes at 41 wins again before being eliminated in the first round for the third straight season.