Sportsfrog.com

The good news from last season:
The Jazz continued their trend of improving on their previous year’s record for the third straight season, winning 54 games and the Northwest Division crown. Utah also disposed of the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight season, this time in six games. Unfortunately, they did not make it back to the Western Conference Finals, as the Lakers turned them aside in six. The Jazz were brutally efficient, finishing second in the NBA in field goal shooting at 49.7 percent, which helped them finish fifth in the league in scoring. The team values the ball, finishing third in rebounding differential and seventh in turnover differential. A lot of that comes from their two stars, Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams, manning the power forward and point guard spots. Durability is also a key as five players started at least 72 games last season.

The bad news from last season:
The team still has deficiencies from the perimeter, even with the addition of Kyle Korver. The team ranked 26th in the league on three-pointers even though the sharpshooter was brought in during the season. The team also fouls a lot, leading the league with 24 infractions per game, but at least they seem to be smart about it, as their foes shot the ninth-fewest charity shots in the game. The defense is average, finishing 13th in points allowed and 14th in field goal percentage.

The revolving door:
IN: G Brevin Knight, C Kosta Koufos
OUT: G Dee Brown, G Jason Hart

Team overview:
Deron Williams is the point guard who is trying to keep pace with his draft class mate, Chris Paul of the Hornets, for the title of “Best Young Point Guard,” which may simply be “Best Point Guard” by the end of the season. Williams finished third in the league in assists last year at 10.5 per game, but also uses his size to get to the rim, averaging 18.8 points per night on 50.7 percent shooting. His outside shot improved, as well, getting up to 39.5 percent shooting from downtown. Unfortunately, an ankle injury may keep him out of the start of the season. Brevin Knight, acquired from the Clippers in a swap of backup point guards, should start if Williams cannot go. Knight is a good fit with the Jazz, carding a 4.62-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio with the Clips last season. He does not provide much size or shooting, but Knight can run a team. Ronnie Brewer will be back to start at the two-guard slot. Brewer stays within his limited offense, having shot 55.8 percent from the floor last year (tops among guards) and putting up only 50 triples on the year. He also provides some sticky fingers on the other end of the hardwood, finishing tenth in the league in steals. Kyle Korver will play off the bench at the two as the designated shooter. Korver, who came over in a trade from Philadelphia in midseason, actually had his worst season from beyond the arc in his career, making 37.5 percent of his threes on the season and 38.8 percent with Utah. Ronnie Price will see a few minutes as the third point guard, which should keep him fresh in case Williams is out early or the injury-prone Knight goes down.

One change from last season is that C.J. Miles appears to be replacing Andrei Kirilenko in the starting lineup after starting 13 games last season. The fourth-year man improved his jump shot considerably last season, getting up to 39.0 percent from deep. Carlos Boozer will be the focal point of the offense again after averaging 21.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game last year. The power forward shot 54.7 percent from the floor last season and had 51 double-doubles on the season. Consistent enough for you? Kirilenko, Matt Harpring, and Paul Millsap will play the forward spots off the bench. Kirilenko has struggled the last couple seasons and coach Jerry Sloan is hoping that the move to the bench will help the Russian play an energy role. Harpring has been dogged by an ankle injury during training camp, but will likely regain his role as Utah’s designated bruise off the bench. A hustle player in every sense, Harpring makes his contributions simply from his effort on both ends of the floor. Millsap is a load as the backup power forward. He is a starter waiting to happen, posting rates of 15.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per 40 minutes. Millsap also is a defensive contributor, finishing second on the team in blocked shots while playing just over 20 minutes per contest. Mehmet Okur will start at center again, providing outside scoring punch (he led the team with 114 three-pointers at a 38.8 percent rate) and rebounding (7.7 boards per night). Okur’s outside stroke provides a complement to the team’s group of players who shoot closer to the rim. Jarron Collins will pick up a few minutes here and there as a defensive option when the team needs bulk on the floor.

Fantasy note:
Should Carlos Boozer become injured for more than a week, you are strongly encouraged to pick up Paul Millsap. In the six games where Millsap played at least 30 minutes last season, he averaged 18.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks while shooting 65.2 percent from the field. This is a “run, not walk” scenario.

Best case scenario:
The team picks up where they left off, plowing through their division and being a tough for every night for their opponents. Williams completes with Paul for the title of best guard, Boozer becomes an MVP candidate, and Kirilenko finds new life as a super-sub. This deep Jazz team wins 59 games and grinds down their opponents on their way to an NBA title.

Worst case scenario:
Williams is sidelined early and starts slowly when he comes back. The team wins 50 games and barely beats out an improved Portland team for the division title. The Jazz get bumped off in the first round by a superior, but lower-seeded team.