Sportsfrog.com

Well the theme last week was again right on, the execution, however, was again not. While the Giants and Titans had no problem as big favorites against the 49ers and Chiefs, and the Steelers blew open a close game late in Cincinnati, the Rams were busy exposing the Cowboys’ problems with their defensive scheme. Add in that game with the Lions backdoor cover, and well, we’re looking for a better effort this week.

So the idea I’m running with this week is teams following an easy win. For example, in week 6, the Colts won 31-3, the Saints won 34-3, the Bucs won 27-3, and the Chargers won 30-10. So naturally, in week 7, only the Bucs managed to escape with a win – but that was probably more because they were at home against the Seahawks.

If you look back to week five, the Panthers won 34-0, Chicago won 34-7, the Giants won 44-6, and Arizona won 41-17. So in week six, only the Cards managed to win – and they had to go into OT at home against a Cowboys team that now doesn’t look so hot.

It’s fair to say that teams who have an easy win one week, have a hard time getting their game back up IF they’re playing a worthy opponent. And it’s also fair to say that teams who don’t show up one week, usually do the next.

NY GIANTS at PITTSBURGH (-3) – Probably my favorite pick of the week. I had the Steelers struggling last week against the Bengals and while it was close for a while, the final result didn’t turn out well. It still looked like the Steelers struggled, but the Bengals are just terrible. I feel like the Steelers stole some wins before their bye and are due for a loss. I worry about the problems Plaxico is causing in NY, but now that the Steelers will be without CB McFadden and maybe even Polamalu, I’m on the Giants here. WR Holmes has been suspended and Aaron Smith is out too. Pile on.
Giants +3

CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE (-7) – I’m not a big fan of taking teams coming off their bye, and I also think this year’s Jags team is still vastly overrated. But I’m willing to back them in this game. Jacksonville can still succeed against a team that doesn’t stop the run (the Browns rank 26th) and the Jags’ offensive line is finally getting healthy (Meester and Naeole return). The Browns Monday night win against the Giants two weeks ago will probably prove to be more of an aberration as the year goes along.
Jaguars -7

TAMPA BAY at DALLAS (-2) – This is one of those close your eyes picks. The Bucs aren’t a very good road team vs non-division opponents. And this game falls into both of the themes we’re looking at this week. The Bucs are off a high, and the Cowboys are off a low. And despite the Cowboys’ troubles on defense, one thing that can still be counted on is DeMarcus Ware getting to the QB.
Cowboys -2

ST LOUIS at NEW ENGLAND (-7) – I’m jumping on board. Jim Haslett has allowed this Rams team the opportunity to breathe again. Fakhir Brown is back. Marc Bulger is starting. Oshi Atogwe is making plays again. The Rams front four should give Cassel problems, given Matt’s propensity for holding on to the ball too long. Plus, they don’t really turn the ball over. Since he Pats are coming off an easy win, I’m looking for the Rams to cover their third straight spread. But, that’s if Steven Jackson plays.
Rams +7, if Jackson plays

SAN DIEGO vs NEW ORLEANS (+3) at LONDON – This game will likely come down to whether or not the Chargers can get pressure on Drew Brees. But without Reggie Bush, this offense turns into a different machine. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers’ offense has quietly turned into a Philip Rivers feature show. On the slippery football turf at Wimbley, I just like the Chargers offense more than I like the Saints right now.
Chargers -3

KANSAS CITY at NY JETS (-13) – Linesmakers are having a hard time setting their KC lines high enough. The Jets, coming off a loss in Oakland, tried too much to spread things out against the Raiders last week. They are still having an identity crisis on offense. One week, they’re a wide open spread Brett Favre team. Other weeks, they are a physical, hard running Brian Schottenheimer offense. The Chiefs front four is built to stop the run, but they get no help from their back seven. The Jets defense plays the run very well, and is 4th in the league in total sacks. This line should be more like -8 or -9, but the Titans trouncing last week has inflated the number this week. Still, it should be another long day for KC.
Jets -13

ARIZONA at CAROLINA (-4) – The Panthers, Titans and Bills have been my three teams this year. I’ve taken them just about every week, so it shouldn’t stop now. The teams Carolina has struggled against this year are teams who focus on running the ball. That’s because the Carolina front seven is more athletic than they have been in recent years. They are a 1 gap defense now, built to defend the pass (see last week’s shut down of Drew Brees). So with Arizona in town, the Cards will be playing into the Panthers’ strength.
Panthers -4

WASHINGTON at DETROIT (+8) – Two straight low scoring games for the Redskins. I predicted two weeks ago, before the Rams loss, that the Skins schedule had set them up to struggle against this stretch on non-division weaker opponents. I think their offense will start to come out of that a bit this week against the Lions. Whether or not they cover on the road, I don’t know. The Washington defensive style may be one type of team Dan Orlovasky can find some success against. So i’m taking the over.
Over 43

BUFFALO at MIAMI (+1.5) – Last year against the Bills, Chad Pennington completed 32 of 39 for 291 yards in Buffalo. But the Dolphins will be without the key to their defense, NT Jason Ferguson and will struggle to stop the run. The Ravens used team speed and gap discipline last week to stop the Wildcat, and I think the Bills have enough speed – even without Schobel at DE – to play a smart style of football on defense. The temperature in south Florida today won’t get but a few degrees above 80.
Bills -1.5

UPDATE – Late add, under 45 in the Philly/Atlanta game. 45 points?

Last Week: 4-4 | 25-25-2