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This is a tough week in the NFL for me. I feel like a lot of teams will win but not necessarily cover. Over the first 8 weeks of the season, I think I’ve been picking too many games a week. So i’m going to scale things back a little and focus on the matchups I like and worry less about covering all the bases.

Also, at the end of the list, I’ve added three college matchups.

GREEN BAY at TENNESSEE (-4.5) – Football Outsiders ranks the Packers defense #2 against the pass and #29 against the run. Their loss of LE Cullen Jenkins isn’t going to help that. Still, given the Titans are coming off such a big Monday night division win, to get up for this 1pm NFC opponent may be difficult. I like a healthy Packers team to be competitive here.
Packers +4.5

NY JETS at BUFFALO (-5.5) – I like Buffalo off a loss versus a Jets team that got away with a bad win last week vs Kansas City. The Jets get a lot of sacks, but give up a lot of points along the way. Buffalo has won their last three meetings, while one look at the Jets’ schedule this season should give you an indication of how mediocre their performance has been.
Bills -5.5

DALLAS at NY GIANTS (-9) – The idea of this Giants pass rush up against the Cowboys’ OL and Brad Johnson makes it hard to look at any other matchup. If the Cowboys were any good, they would have beaten the Bucs 30-10 last week.
Giants -9

PITTSBURGH at WASHINGTON (-1.5) – Expect the Steelers to bounce back from last week’s tough home loss. The Redskins aren’t a fierce pass rushing unit, so Pittsburgh should put up some points. On the other side, PFW’s Mike Wilkening brought up a good point: Jim Zorn was in Seattle when the Seahawks faced the Steelers in the Super Bowl. Seattle moved the ball very well in that game so I suspect the Redskins – who began to awake from their midseason slumber last week – will be clicking on offense for this Monday night home game.
Over 36.5

Last Week: 3-4-2 | 28-29-4

Other games I would lean, but not officially take: DET +12.5, CIN +7.5, CLE -1.5, KC +8.5, ARZ -3, MIN -4.5, MIA +3.5, OAK +3, PHI -6.5, IND -6

Since brian is out this week, I’ll float these three college games out there too.

FLORIDA STATE at GEORGIA TECH (-2) – Georgia Tech has been a good story this year (6-2 overall, 3-2 conf), but their last four games are vs FSU, at UNC, vs Miami, and at Georgia. Florida State’s defense is still one of the fastest around, and if they play a discplined game, they should force Paul Johnson’s offense to work out of their comfort zone. And I’m sure they’ll have something new for the Seminoles, but I think anything that challenges this talented FSU secondary will be welcomed by Micky Andrews’ group. Georgia Tech’s injuries on defense will give the improving, but still sometimes troubling FSU offense a chance to run free.
Noles +2

FLORIDA vs GEORGIA (at Jacksonville) (+6.5) – Georgia’s offensive line has improved since the late September loss to Alabama, but they are still an inexperienced group that will be playing on a gigantic stage on Saturday. Georgia also has a depth problem on both sides of the ball. I like Stafford, Moreno, and Green, but this game needs to be won up front and I don’t think the Bulldogs have enough. I normally don’t think much of the revenge factor, but last year’s loss to UGA really pissed off UF.
Gators -6.5

WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN STATE (-5.5) – The Spartans are flying high and talking about a possible Big Ten championship after last week’s win at Michigan. But noon game underdogs can be deadly, especially when the favorite is coming off a big win. Wisconsin has won 8 of the last 11 against MSU, and has improved their rush defense last week by giving up only 88 yards to Illinois.
Badgers +5.5