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UPDATE – Pro picks are coming soon, but here are some Saturday games too look at in addition to Brian’s picks from earlier this week.

I’m in second place with 101 picks in our Swamp College Football Pick’em league, so I’m just going to keep posting a few plays here for fun. I seem to be doing better with the college stuff this season.

LOUISVILLE at PITT (-6) – The Panthers are coming off their dramatic triple OT win at Notre Dame last week and they’ll face a surprising Cardinals team. Louisville is a fast, fast group that plays very well against the run. That’s pretty much what you need to defeat this Pitt team. Plus, the Panthers seem to be a much better road team this year and have a noon home kickoff as favorites – a perfect scenario to go against them.
Cards +6

ALABAMA at LSU (+3.5) – When teams have defeated the Bayou Bengals this season (Georgia, Florida), they’ve mostly done it through the air. The differences between Stafford / Tebow and JP Wilson are cavernous. I just don’t think Alabama will be able to take advantage of LSU’s secondary. And they’re on the road. And this is basically LSU’s season.
Tigers +3.5

GEORGIA TECH at UNC (-4) – The Yellow Jackets got lucky last week. And they owe me. Over a month ago, UNC gave up 210 rushing yards to Donald Brown and the UConn Huskies. Since then, the Tar Heels have clamped down on opponents’ run game – capped off with last week’s game against BC where the Eagles only registered 40 yards on 21 carries. It’s a noon kickoff for a home favorite, so I’m wary of this one, but I’ll go against that rule and take the Tar Heels.
UNC -4

OREGON ST at UCLA (+7.5) – This is just a mismatch. Home dogs be damned, the Bruins give up an average of 188.8 yards per game on the ground. UCLA has three wins this season, but looking back now only one of them is even remotely impressive and that’s versus Stanford. Beating Tennessee and Washington State just doesn’t look so hot these days. Use caution though, OSU’s 1-3 on the road this year and that lone win was at Washington. And they’ve got Cal next week.
Beavers -7.5

I’m going to stay away from the TTech / OSU game but I have some thoughts: Tech’s defense really surprised me last week vs Texas. I am still stunned by what I saw from their front four and the way they were able to get off their blocks against the longhorns. But, the Red Raiders front four got such good pressure, I’m not really sure how good their secondary is. OSU, meanwhile, has played well against spread teams this season, but I don’t think Mizzou’s one dimensional offense compares with what TTech with throw out there. Matchups alone, I’d take the Red Raiders here, but there’s no doubt they’re a prime letdown suspect – playing at home off such a big win and fresh new ranking. I’ll choose just to sit back and enjoy. But if the Red Raiders win, I’ll be all over the Sooners when those two meet.

ON TO THE PRO GAMES

Last weeks total plays went 10/14 even though my official plays were merely 2-2. And despite when I said last week that taking less picks was a good idea, I’m got beat by leaving good picks on the table. So I think I’m going all-in this week. After all, this is purely for entertainment purposes.

I’ve already taken Cleveland this week, and boy is their play calling awful. It was nice to see Brady Quinn have a real nice game though. He’s a totally different kind of quarterback when compared to Anderson.

After Cleveland, here are the regular picks I’ve got for our Swamp NFL pickem league:

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (-1) – It’s not well known yet, but the Saints defense is really playing well against the run. Jonathan Vilma has turned this unit around. They’ve lost Charles Grant but get Sedric Ellis back in this game. Atlanta’s weakness is against the pass, so advantage Drew Brees here.
Saints +1

TENNESSEE at CHICAGO (+3) – When you saw Rex Grossman last week carving up the Lions’ defense, you saw a quarterback sitting in a nice pocket with time and the vision to throw. Against the Titans this week, that couldn’t be any less of what he’ll see. The Titans passed a big test last week against the Packers. But the Bears have been strong against the run this year. What bothers me about this game, however, is how Chicago has played this season against Atlanta and Minnesota. Their defense may just win this game for them, but I don’t think Rex Grossman will.
Titans -3

JACKSONVILLE at DETROIT (+6.5) – I still have visions of Daunte Culpepper’s game at Miami last year while he was with Oakland. A motivated Culpepper is a dangerous one. Plus, there’s a stat floating around that the favorite in Jags games this year is 0-8 against the line. I think the Lions to win is a smart play here.
Lions +6.5

SEATTLE at MIAMI (-8.5) – Seattle’s 2nd to last ranked pass defense just got worse with the loss of Kerney. This is an early kickoff, west cost team coming east sleep walk. Plus, the Hawks have been terrible this year. As long as Hasselback is out, Miami covers.
Dolphins -8.5

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (-2.5) – The Packers showed where they belong last week against at Tennessee. Now they’re still underdogs against a similar style Vikings team? Okay. The Packers gained 102 yards on the ground last week, and averaged 4.3 a carry. That’s impressive. The Vikings are similar to the Titans, except they’re not nearly as good and will probably be without Jared Allen. This is a divisional game and the Packers win this one. They may even run it up a bit.
Packers +3.5

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) – The Bills have let me down now a couple weeks in a row. And while I know this is a totally different Pats team, New England beat up on the Bills by a combined score of 94-17 last season. I have no real grasp of this game. But I like the Bills this season.
Bills +3.5

ST LOUIS at NY JETS (-8) – This Jeckyl and Hyde Jets team is really tough to follow. Sometimes, they’re airing it out and other times their grinding it out on the ground. One thing that is consistent is their run defense. Kris Jenkins is playing at an unbelievable level. This is a let down game (after Buffalo and before New England) so it’s not a best bet.
Jets -8

BALTIMORE at HOUSTON (+1) – The Ravens have won three in a row and have scored 27 or more points in all three. But their schedule this year isn’t very impressive and the only real team they’ve defeated is Miami. The matchups in this one point to the Ravens, but the trends point to the Texans. That’s why its basically a toss up, pickem game. Close your eyes and roll them dice.
Texans +1

CAROLINA at OAKLAND (-9) – Yes, I had the Raiders on my list last week. Obviously, this team is falling apart. But, there’s reason to use caution in this game for only the reason that the Raiders may have someone else besides Russell behind center for a part or all of this game. But, as a low play, the Panthers love to run and the Raiders struggle against it.
Panthers -9

INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH (-3) – Not many people have a line for this, but what is clear is that the Colts are back. They’re 1-2 over their last three weeks but have gone against the Packers, Titans, and Pats. After the Steelers, they’ve got the Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals, Lions and Jags on their schedule before closing the season against the Titans. So a 10 win season is still a good possibility. The Steelers have won 9 out of the last 10 meetings against Indy, but with all the questions, I have no pick on this game though.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-15) – I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team two games under .500 end up more than a two touchdown favorite against a division opponent. Were people not watching the Chiefs take the Jets and the Bucs to task the last two weeks? I guess I have to take the Chiefs again this year, but it’s not fun.
Chiefs +15

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (-3) – The Eagles blew out the Seahawks in Seattle last week, but they way they started that came was a little troubling. Philly’s won three in a row, but I wouldn’t call them dominant at all. The Giants, meanwhile, are playing at an extremely high level and I think have one more solid game in them before they let off the gas a bit. A win here leaves them 3-0 in the division and looking ahead three weeks to their game against the Redskins.
Giants +3

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (-9) – This just looks like a coming out opportunity for an emotional Mike Singletary team. They’re sitting on the bottom of the league, on Monday night, with a new coach and a whole week off to remember why they’re playing. I hate taking teams off bye weeks, but this one actually makes sense.
49ers +9

Best Bets:
GB +2.5, NO +1, DET +6.5, and NYG +3

Last Week 2-2 | 30-31-4

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FROM THURSDAY
I’ll get the full post up some time tomorrow, but the Broncos’ defense is exactly the kind of defense that Brady Quinn needs right now. He’ll ease his way into the NFL tonight like an old man sliding into a hot bath. Browns -3.