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Back to a 16 game schedule. This is probably the last week I’ll write up every game.

For some unknown reason, I’ve always seemed to do better at picking the 4pm games than any others. And this isn’t something I’ve noticed just this year. It goes back a ways. But the other night, after seeing my week 10 picks crash and burn miserably, I decided to follow this silver lined path and see exactly how true this assumption was. I compiled these numbers without total diligence, so I may be off by a game or two, but by my calculations, my posted 4pm game picks are 17-5 against the spread this season. That’s a 77% success rate. I really have no idea why. But I know it’s not a new thing.

Most times when I’m considering games, I follow a certain path. How do the two teams match up run vs run defense, pass vs pass defense, on both sides of the ball. I look for strengths or weaknesses far away from the median (Football Outsiders provides as a guide, but not bible, for rankings) and then base all that on the following scale:

1) when its OFF strength v DEF strength, the DEF can contain what the opponents do best. Advantage DEF.
2) when its OFF strength v DEF weakness, the OFF can dominate and wear down a defense. Advantage OFF.
3) when its OFF weakness v DEF strength, the OFF is used to not having that part of their game and can manage. Advantage OFF.
4) when its OFF weakness v DEF weakness, the DEF isn’t as vulnerable as they normally are. Advantage DEF.

Now, I will point out that I’m barely at .500 for picks, so all this isn’t very meaningful. Except, I guess, when talking about these 4pm games. There, I’m otherworldly!

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) – Kris Jenkins and the rest of the Jets defense should be able to at least contain the Pats run game (theory #1), and that’s the thing New England has done well lately to stabilize their offense. Without it, they’ll be in trouble against the Jets. Brett Favre has only attempted 47 passes over the last two games combined. He may have more than that in this one.
Jets +3.5

DENVER at ATLANTA (-6) – Atlanta’s defense is one of the most improved units in the league over the last few weeks. In their last three games, they’ve contained the Saints and the Eagles while completely shutting down the Raiders. Denver’s offense, however, is back from a midseason slump – only it just was never as good as the first two weeks of the season led some to believe. Since Denver’s run defense has huge holes in it, the Falcons should control this game (theory #2).
Falcons -6

PHILADELPHIA at CINCINNATI (+9) – The Bengals got their one win and probably had a nice relaxing, easy bye week. The Eagles meanwhile, have their backs to the wall after Sunday night’s 31-36 loss the NYG that looked worse than the score indicates. Philly’s at the bottom of their division, looking up, and don’t have much relief left on their schedule. But this game is one of those. The Eagles make their way through the air, and that’s where the Bengals struggle (theory #2). Meanwhile, Cincy’s offense is bad everywhere while the Eagles defense is stout – despite what the numbers say. DVOA has them 6th right now. Mostly, i’m taking the Eagles here from the lesson I learned when I tried taking the Bengals at home against the Steelers.
Eagles -9

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (no line) -The Bears have a strong run defense but the Packers have had success on offense this season in spite of their troubles running the ball (theory #3). Meanwhile, the Packers pass defense is one of the best and it seems like everyone is waiting to see if Orton or Grossman starts. With Nick Barnett going down with a season ending knee injury, Green Bay has now lost two of its most important defenders (Cullen Jenkins). The Bears clearly have a schematic problem on defense, as evidenced by this story from Dan Arkush. Picking a side in this game is essentially picking whether or not Chicago will fix this during the week. For three straight weeks the Packers will face the Titans, Vikings, and now Bears run defense. If the Packers make it out of this still alive for the playoffs, they may sneak up on someone. With no line, I got no pick.

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) – Last week, I wrote that the Colts were about to spring themselves to 10 wins despite everything that has happened to them. Only I thought that would happen after a loss to the Steelers. Now that they’ve beated the Steelers in Pittsburgh, it’s all but certain now that the Colts have gotten away with stolen goods and are setting up a storefront to sell them. Temper that advocation with the truth that the Colts don’t hold much of an edge in matchup against the Texans. Houston’s defense struggles against the run might not be a huge liability against a team that has struggled to run the ball (theory #4). But Houston’s loss of Zac Diles was a huge factor in their giving up 162 yards rushing to the Ravens last week. And they may be without Marlon Greenwood this week too. In the end, the Colts have few double digit wins on their record this season. But this is probably one of them.
Colts -8.5

NEW ORLEANS at KANSAS CITY (+5.5) – The Saints defense has now lost Charles Grant, Mike McKenzie, and rookie CB Tracy Porter. The CBs they are left with are: Randall Gay, Aaron Glenn, Usama Young and Jason David. As I mentioned last week, this unit has really improved their play against the run and they ended up holding Michael Turner to 3.6 yards per carry last week. But I think as teams see tape on them without Grant in the lineup, the run defense will begin to struggle a bit too. But Jonathan Vilma is the key to this unit, so as long as he’s in there, they’ll manage. For KC, ever since they’ve switched to Tyler Thigpen and the shotgun he’s more comfortable with, they’ve been very competitive. They lost to the Jets by 4 points, lost to the Bucs by 3 points, and lost last week to the Chargers by 1 points. And in all three games, they were either tied or held a lead at halftime. The Chiefs’ main weakness on defense has been against the run, but theory #4 says they won’t be hurt as much as normal in this game. We’ll see.
Chiefs +5.5

OAKLAND at MIAMI (-10) – The Raiders are a mess, and who knows who’ll be calling their offensive plays this week. Miami has only posted a double digit win once this season. They couldn’t do it last week vs Seattle. But maybe they will here? Man, I hope this game isn’t on tv here. They’ve won three in a row and have the Pats next week. Probably not.
Raiders +10

BALTIMORE at NY GIANTS (-6.5) – The Giants have played really well of late, and they’ve just finished up a three game stretch against Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Philadelphia. Now, they’ve got two non-divisional games against the Ravens and the Cards before they wrap up their NFC East schedule with Washington, Philly, and Dallas in weeks 13-15. Basically, what I’m getting at is the same thing I wrote last week when picking the Giants over the Eagles. This is a time where NY will let off the gas a bit. The Ravens, meanwhile, will get to use this game to show everyone they’re not a joke. And aside from a week 6 hiccup at Indy, they too have been dominant. Baltimore has the pound the ball style of offense that can neutralize the Giants pash rush just enough. And since the Gmen’s offense is predicated on being able to run, they will struggle with the high number of third and longs they’ll face against the Ravens. 6.5 points is just way too much to give Baltimore in this position.
Ravens +6.5

MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY (-3.5) – The Bucs are one of the few teams around that I think actually do play better at home. And this game will be an interesting test of theory #3. The Bucs are used to getting little more than 3 yards a carry out of their ground game, so they’re well equipped to face the Minnesota defense. And other than their week 9 hiccup at KC, the TB rush defense has absolutely shut down running backs this season. Although this is the kind of game the Bucs usually keep close, I’ll have to go with them and hope for luck.
Bucs -3.5

DETROIT at CAROLINA (-14) – Detroit can’t stop the run, may have lost both of its starting DEs, and now faces a Carolina team that dominates when it can run the ball freely. This could be on par with the Titans drubbing of the Chiefs back in week seven.
Panthers -14

ST LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) – Does anyone actually want to take a 6 point favorite who holds an overall record of 2-7 on the season? Also, why doesn’t Shaun Hill move his left arm when he throws? There is a lot of this….. in tap dancing….. For St Louis, the magic of the coaching change seems to have rubbed off. They’re back to doing nothing right. Mostly, I don’t want any part of this game but I’d take the Rams to cover if forced. Since it’s a 4pm matchup, I’m going to pass and only post picks for that time I approve.

ARIZONA at SEATTLE (+3) – The Cardinals’ only two road wins this season have been against division foes. And all three of their overall losses have come on the road. So, it’s safe to assume, they aren’t a good road team. Against Seattle, however, their top ranked pass offense will face one of the worst pass defenses in the league (theory #2). The Cards take a lot of penalties, so they’ll have to watch out for that, but this line surprises me a lot. I thought the Cards would be at least 5 or 6 point favorites. Even with Hasselback returning.
Cards -3

SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH (-4.5) – Just as a reminder, the Chargers were a 15 point favorite last week for a game they should have and almost lost. Now they’re 4.5 dogs at Pittsburgh. So is the public finally off their wagon? That may be premature. The Steelers are signing people off the street to play DB for them. The biggest problem with the Chargers this season is that their defense has been too timid. Probably a combination of Ted Cottrel’s bad playcalling and an overcompensation for the loss of Shawne Merriman. New DC Ron Rivera has said he’ll turn up the pressure on defense, and this is the week to do it. I think the Chargers will be competitive here and if I’d take them if I needed to, but I’m not picking this one either.

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE (+3) – Tony Brown and Albert Haynesworth against the depleted interior Jaguars OL? Giant mismatch. Titans roll. I guess the public hasn’t caught on yet that the Jags aren’t good.
Titans -3

DALLAS at WASHINGTON (+1.5) – There’s really nothing that can be counted on for this game. I don’t even think the Cowboys themselves know what kind of team they are. Marion Barber still hasn’t had a strong game against the Redskins. So I guess I’ll follow that trend. If Portis plays. If not, I’m out.
Skins +1.5

CLEVELAND at BUFFALO (-5) – Second straight prime time game for Brady Quinn to woo the shladies. The Browns are one of the most mismanaged teams in the league. They’ve got talent, but make terrible decisions. Buffalo’s problems of late have been as a result of their OL not run blocking very well. I think they’ll be happy to invite the Browns in for a MNF game.
Bills -5

Best bets this week are: BAL +6.5, CAR -14, TEN -3, and ARZ -3

Last Week: 7-6 | 37-37-4 | 4pm: 17-5